Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 28, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2001

IN NEAR TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATE ENHANCED CU FIELD OVER
NORTHERN SC AND BORDER COUNTIES OF NC.  MSAS SURFACE PARAMETERS
INDICATE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THIS REGION...AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW FEEDING VERY UNSTABLE AIR INTO THIS SECTOR. SCATTERED
CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN CAE VICINITY...DRIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH.  AT THIS TIME PLAN TO GO WITH CHC POPS THIS EVENING FOR RAH
COUNTIES THAT BORDER SC.

NO DISCERNIBLE FEATURE THROUGH 60 HOURS TO SUGGEST GREATER THAN
20-30% POP. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD (ABOUT 30M PER DAY).
HOWEVER DPROG/DT CENTERED ON 00Z SAT TREND TOWARD A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
UPPER RIDGE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  THUS MODELS MAY BE
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOO QUICKLY.

MODELS ALSO CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING LOW/MID LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE OFF NC
COAST TONIGHT/FRI. RESULTANT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER REGION.  WITH LOW LEVEL
ANTI-CYCLONE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...EXPECT LESS CAPPING IN THE THE
MID/LOWER LAYERS.  THUS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST CLOSER TO
BETTER OROGRAPHICS.  MODELS HINT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER SE FL
PENINSULA MAY TRACK NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  HOWEVER WITH MODEL TREND
TOWARD SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING...NOT READY TO COMMIT TO HIGHER
POPS DAY 2.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FRI/SAT COMPARABLE TO TODAY SO WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPS ARD 90/LOWER 90S THROUGH SHORT-TERM.

EXTENDED...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN ONGOING FORECAST OF TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.  MODELS NOT CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY  TOWARD END OF EXTENDED.  WILL NOT GET FANCY WITH DAYS 6/7
HAS DIFFICULT TO TIME FRONTAL PASSAGE (IF IT OCCURS) THIS FAR OUT.
EXPECT TEMPS TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EXTENDED.

RDU 70/92/70/91 1222                    GSO 68/89/70/89 2323
                    FAY 71/92/72/9d1 2222

.RAH...NONE.

WSS/MLM

NCZ025-041-042-290000-
DURHAM-JOHNSTON-WAKE-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
635 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2001

...NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE AREA...

THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN DURHAM AND NORTHWESTERN WAKE COUNTY JUST NORTH OF THE
RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND ACROSS EASTERN WAKE COUNTY
NEAR KNIGHTDALE.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES PER HOUR. THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUOUS
HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL PRODUCE RISES ACROSS STREAMS AND CREEKS AND
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREA.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THUNDER IS NO LONGER HEARD. MOTORISTS BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING ALONG ROADS.

BLAES