Hail in Kansas, September 20, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2001

PER PROFILERS, WEAK 850MB JET POSITIONED ACRS W TX THEN JUTS NE ACRS
FAR WRN OK TO NEAR HVLK1. WITH NW MID-UPR FLOW, ANY ADDITIONAL TSRA
THAT DVLPS TNGT TO DO SO SW OF CWA OVER WRN OK & MOVE E/SE, REMAIN-
ING S OF CWA WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT DEPARTS
INSTABILITY AXIS. ISOLD SHRA THAT DVLPD ON NOSE OF 850MB JET VERI-
FYING ALL OF THE ABOVE AS IT MOVES SE ACRS BARBER COUNTY.

FCST FOCUS SHIFTS TO PAC NW UPR SHRTWV THAT WAS DISCUSSED LAST NGT.
WV IMAGERY VIVIDLY DISPLAYS THIS CREATURE SURGING E OVER MT @ MID-
NGT. DRIVEN BY STG NW UPR FLOW, SHRTWV TO SURGE E/SE OVER NRN PLNS
TODAY, SWEEPING COLD FRONT E & SE ACRS NRN & CNTRL PLNS TODAY &
TNGT. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF PATTERN WL PUSH COLD FRONT THRU CWA
SOONER THAN XPCTD AT THIS TIME LAST NGT, WITH FRONT CROSSING CNTRL
KS EARLY THIS AFTN & SC KS EARLY THIS EVE. POP GRADIENT REFLECTIVE
OF SFC-850MB MSTR AXIS (FM CNTRL OK NE ACRS SC & SE KS THIS AFTN
WITH AXIS BEING SHUNTED SE THIS EVE) & COLD FRONTS ARVL. HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TO BE SITUATED ACRS ERN 1/2 CNTRL KS THIS AFTN & SC &
SE KS TNGT WHERE HIGHEST POPS POSITIONED. ALL TO BE QUIET ACRS THE
NEIGHBORHOOD FRI AS WEAK SFC HIGH SETTLES SE INTO CNTRL PLNS.

TODAY:
GOING FCST APRS KOSHER IN MOST REGARDS. (GENERIC 30% POP WRN 1/2
CNTRL). HWVR, WL UP POP ANTE SLGTLY ACRS ERN 1/2 CNTRL TO 40% WHERE
BETTER ALIGNED WITH SFC-850MB AXIS & COLD FRONTS LATER ARVL & SC KS
TO 30% WITH LATE AFTN EMPHASIZED. SE KS HELD @ 20% WITH LATE AFTN
DESCRIPTOR USED. ETA DEPICTING CAPES FLIRTING WITH 2900J/KG SO WL
ISSUE HWO TO GIVE ALL CONCERNED A HEADS UP. FWC/MAV MAXES (MID 80S)
LOOK HARD TO BEAT.

TNGT:
SFC-850MB MSTR AXIS ALIGNMENT, IMPRESSIVE SPEED & DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PLUS STRONG CONVERGENCE ALG COLD FRONT DICTATE INCRG POPS ACRS SE KS
TO 60%. UPON FURTHER REVIEW, HAVE DECIDED TO EASE UP ON POP THROTTLE
ACRS SC KS (40%). (KDDC & KOUN PLEASE NOTE THIS CHG FM INITIAL
DISCUSSION). SVR DESCRIPTOR USED ALL CASES WITH DAMAGING WINDS
HIGHLIGHTED. NIXED 20% POP FM WRN 1/2 CNTRL KS AS FRONT WL HAVE
DEPARTED THIS SECTOR BUT WL RETAIN 40% ERN 1/2 CNTRL & LIMIT TO EVE.
MINS TO RUN FM MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE.

FRI:
RETAINING GENERIC 20% POP SC & SE FOR EARLY MRNG AS A FEW STRAGGLING
SHRA MAY LINGER ALONG OK BDR WHERE CLOSEST TO DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
SKIES TO CLEAR REST OF CWA AS PREV MENTIONED SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO
RGN. MAXES ARND 80F TO SUFFICE ALL AREAS.

FRI NGT:
FAR WRN U.S. UPR RDG AMPLIFIES MARKEDLY IN RESPONSE TO VICIOUS NE PAC
SYSTEM DROPPING SE ALONG PAC COAST. BOTH FIGURE IN FORCING NEXT UPR
SHRTWV SE OVER ALBERTA & SASKATCHEWAN WHICHLL IN TURN INDUCE TROFING
ALONG FRONT RANGE. AS SUCH SLY FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES OVER WRN 1/2 CWA
WHICHLL INHIBIT TEMP DROP TO SOME DEGREE. THEREFORE WARMER FWC/MAV
GUIDANCE GET THE CALL FOR MINS CNTRL & SC (UPR 50S) WHILE MID 50S
SHOULD SUFFICE SE.
ES

COORD: TOP, SGF.

FCSTID = 4
ICT   87  60  80  58 /  30  40  20   0
HUT   86  57  80  58 /  40  40   0   0
EWK   86  59  80  58 /  40  40   0   0
EQA   87  60  80  58 /  30  40  20   0
WLD   87  60  80  59 /  30  40  20   0
RSL   85  55  78  58 /  30   0   0   0
GBD   85  56  79  58 /  30   0   0   0
SLN   86  57  79  58 /  40  40   0   0
MPR   86  58  80  58 /  40  40   0   0
CFV   86  62  80  56 /  20  60  20   0
CNU   86  61  80  56 /  20  60  20   0
K88   86  61  79  55 /  20  60  20   0

.ICT...NONE.