Tornadoes and Hail in Missouri, September 20, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
230 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2001

MAIN STORY TDY WILL BE THE UPPER LOW SPINNING DOWN IN NW FLOW.
SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP FOR A QUICK SVR WX EVNT.  SHUD SEE A
WARM SECTOR IN NERN MO...AND STRONG THETA/E ADV WILL RAISE DPTS AT
H8 ABOUT 7 DEG DURING THE DAY. SO ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THERE
BY MID AFTERNOON.  THEN AHD OF THE COLD FRONT...LAPSE RATES NEAR 8
DEG CAPES 2500 J/KG LI/S AT LEAST 7.  GOOD DIVERGENCE AT 200MB
TOO.  SOMETHING OF A TRIPLE POINT SHUD SET UP...AND SHUD SEE TSRA
BREAK OUT BY MID AFTN IN THE NWRN CWA. WILL PROBABLY GO AHD AND UP
POPS FOR ALL ZONES...LIKELY POPS UP THERE IN THE NW.  AND HIGH CHC
POPS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT SERN ZONES.  THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GET...
RUNNING INTO THE EITHER-SIDE-OF-00Z-PRBLM. SO THE SERN ZONES WILL
GET THEIR LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  SHUD BE ABLE TO GO A
LITTLE ABV GUID TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL CLEAR OUT RATHER QUICKLY BEHIND THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. WILL
PROBABLY ONLY LEAVE EARLY FRI MORNING POPS IN SERN ZONES.

ONLY OTHER CHNGS WILL POSSIBLY BE TO SPEED UP WEEKEND SYSTEM.
NEWEST AVN MAKES IT MORE OF A SAT NITE RATHER THAN SUNDAY EVENT.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT EXTENDED PROGS AS THEY COME IN.

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LVQ

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY-PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

FORECAST: THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AND 9 PM. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST
MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARM MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME UNSTABLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS
IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN MISSOURI BY MIDNIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK:  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  PRESENT INDICATIONS WOULD POINT TOWARDS
CONDITIONS UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX

MS