Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, March 10, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
243 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP TIMING/PHASE/AMOUNTS.

10/00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS OF HEIGHT AND TEMP AT 5H...7H AND 85H
AMONG THE NGM/ETA/AVN MATCHED WELL WITH EACH OTHER AND HAND ANALYSIS
WITH NO ONE MODEL STANDING OUT AS A FAVORITE. AS OF 10/06Z SFC POLAR
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SOUTHCENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. MODEL TIMING OF THIS FRONT FOR ITS 10/06Z POSITION ALSO WAS
HANDLED EQUALLY WELL AMONG THE MODELS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THE 5H LOW THROUGH
SUNDAY ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. IN FACT...BY NOON SUNDAY...THE DIFFERENCE
AMOUNTS TO THE CENTER OF THE AVN 5H LOW BEING 135 MI NORTH OF THE
CORRESPONDING NGM SOLUTION WITH THE ETA BEING IN THE MIDDLE. HEIGHT
DIFFERENCE AMONG THE THREE DIFFER BY ONLY 20 METERS. HEADING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT THE DIFFERENCE INCREASES MORE WITH THE AVN TAKING A
PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN TRACK INTO NEBRASKA WITH THE ETA CONTINUING
THE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. GIVEN RECENT POOR PERFORMANCES OF THE
AVN WITH TAKING 5H LOWS TOO FAR NORTH ONCE CROSSING THE
ROCKIES...WILL FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE SOLUTIONS OF THE
NGM/ETA. THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO HEAD SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS FROM THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THEN THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA. OF THE THREE...THE ETA IS ABOUT 6 HRS
QUICKER THAN THE NGM AND 12 HRS QUICKER THAN THE AVN. AND OF
THESE THREE SFC TRACKS THE NGM SOLUTION IS THE FURTHEREST SOUTH.

WILL BE MAKING VERY FEW CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. BEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK PROMISING IN THE WEST AND THE
NORTH...JUST ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE NGM/ETA PROJECTED 5H LOW
PATH.  GRIDDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF THE NGM/ETA CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST AS WELL...THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER
STORM WATCH GOING FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED THUNDER FOR
TODAY...WITH THE FOCUS BEING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. BY THIS TIME THE AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET WHICH WILL ROUND THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LOW TODAY. ALSO...BY
LATE AFTERNOON...THE AREA START COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME
5H PVA...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF THE NGM AND AVN SUGGEST THE AREA
WILL BE WEAKLY CONDITIONAL UNSTABLE AT AROUND 700 MB. WILL INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS JUST A TAD IN THE SOUTH TODAY. SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING
DEW PTS HAVE HELPED ALLOWED FOR SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE SWITCH OVER
TO SNOW IN THE SNOW FORECAST AREAS...AND ALSO IF THERE WILL BE A
TEMPORARY MIXED PRECIP TYPE. WITH PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...BELIEVE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW GIVEN AN
ABUNDANCE IN ICE CRYSTAL NUCLEI AVAILABLE. SLEET MAY OCCUR FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BUT I WOULD EXPECT THE SWITCH TO ALL SNOW TO
NOT TAKE LONG. THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...THE FAR SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW KEEPING PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN IN THAT AREA
BUT BY AFTERNOON ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY ENTER THE AREA FOR A MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW. BUT SNOW STILL HAS THE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
NORTH AND WEST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

GOING FORECAST IN EFP LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART.  WILL HAVE
TO MODIFY TO DIVIDE EFP INTO 4 ZONES GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 4TH PERIOD, I.E. SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL
ALSO GRADUATE LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT FROM COLDER
NORTHWEST TO WARMER SOUTHEAST.  MINOR WORDING CHANGES TO FRIDAY AND
8-10 DAY PERIODS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 055/029 032/020 032 377
GCK 054/028 032/017 032 488
EHA 060/026 032/017 034 488
LBL 060/027 032/020 033 377
HYS 050/025 028/016 030 588
P28 060/035 040/023 039 266

.DDC...NONE.

SLEIGHTER/BURKE