Flood in Hawaii, June 5, 2001

NARRATIVE SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION FOR WAKE ISLAND

AN UPPER LOW IS NOW ABOUT 240 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND AND STILL
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO THE ISLAND. HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED NEAR WAKE...BUT SOME LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES CONTINUE TO POP UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO SOME 550 NM NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND
BUT THIS HAS SLOWED ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT AND SHOULD NOT
DIRECTLY AFFECT THE WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
ALSO ISOLATED CBS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE AVN FORECAST
MODEL GRAPHICS DO DEPICT EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW BENEATH IT...THE MODEL KEEPS THE RAINFALL EAST OF WAKE.
WINDS HOWEVER...WHICH ARE NOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLAND...
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR BUT JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE ISLAND.

FORECAST...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL LOW
CEILINGS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE IS STILL THE SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS IN THIS UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TODAY AT SPEEDS OF 10 KT
OR LESS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
MOSTLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST TOMORROW. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL EXPECTED.