Tornado and Damaging Winds in Louisiana, June 5 to 7, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
330 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001

HOPEFULLY NOW THAT T.S ALLISON HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED IN THE NW
GULF...LOCAL FORECAST HERE WILL BECOME MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD.
BECOMING PRETTY CONFIDENT WITH THE PACKAGE STARTING WED AND GOING
THROUGH THU WHICH WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS ZONES.
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM INITIALLY WILL BE THE DEGREE OF PRECIP TONIGHT
ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE AVN HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE ENERGY OVER THE NW GULF ALTHOUGH ALL NWP MODELS
HAVE BEEN POOR IN HANDLING THE ENERGY SHEERING TOWARD THE E.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL BANK ON THE AVN MOVING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM N
WITH THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY CATCHING A WEAK TROF DIVING S OUT OF THE
MS VALLEY AND PUSHING THE ENERGY AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP EWD STARTING
LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A WIDE PRECIP SHIELD INTO THE E HALF
OF THE CWA/PWA BY WED AND SLOWLY MOVE IT EWD. A CONTINUAL SLY FEED
OF MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW THE RAIN TO PERSIST INTO THU WITH ENHANCING
SFC CONVERGENT FLOW. THE AVN THOUGH DOES SUGGESTS SOME CHANGES WITH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE FIRST FIVE PERIODS AND CARRYING INTO THE
EXTENDED. THE 12Z AVN RUN NOW SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWING PARTIALLY DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS WOULD NOW BRING THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY LATE THU WITH THE POTENTIAL TO STALL ON FRI N OF THE
COAST. THIS IS ACTUALLY PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SUN/S MRF RUN WHICH
LEADS TO SOME CONFIDENCE WITH THE AVN SOLUTION. AT THIS POINT...WILL
CARRY PRECIP INTO FRI AND THEN GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED ALTHOUGH THIS IN ITSELF IS QUESTIONABLE.

WITH TIDES RUNNING AROUND TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL CORRELATED WITH
SUSTAINED SLY WINDS CREATING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...WILL GO WITH A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THREATENED LOCATIONS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

MCB 71/82/71/85 7966  BTR 73/82/72/85 8966
MSY 75/84/74/87 8966  GPT 73/83/72/85 6666

.NEW...SCA FROM KPQL TO THE ATCHAFALAYA BAY OUT 60 NM ALONG WITH
LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS
LA...CFW LAZ038-040-058-060>064-066>70.
MS...CFW MSZ080.

09

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1120 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001

.SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE MID TEXAS COAST MAY BE ATTEMPTING TO ORGANIZE
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSTABLE AND VERY
MOIST TROPICAL AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT...THEREFORE ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.HEAVY RAIN...
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...TROPICAL DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE STREET
FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS ALONG WITH FLOODING OF SOME CREEKS AND SMALL
STREAMS.

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING LAKES
PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 7 FEET LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH TIDES
RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED IF THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE NORTHWEST GULF STRENGTHENS.

.ACTIONS...NONE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT
THqE FOLLOWING ADDRESS...HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LETTERS
SHOULD BE LOWER CASE).