Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Kansas, June 5 to 6, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
359 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001

MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN ORDER. 18Z ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL KS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER. EXTREME SE KS HAS REACHED THE 80S...WOULD EXPECT THE REST OF
THAT SECTION TO REBOUND AS WELL. PARTS OF SCEN KS HAS ALSO STARTED
TO REBOUND. GOOD SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA (SEEN ON WATERVAPOR LOOP) WILL HELP
ADDITIONAL TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO
COULD GET SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CEN SECTIONS ALONG COLD FRONT.
THERE IS NOT MUCH CONVERGENCE ALONG IT...HOWEVER SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED. WITH H85 DEW POINTS AROUND +15C...LOTS OF MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE ALONG THE FRONT SO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE PROGGED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THETA-E
RIDGE ACROSS THE SAME AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY FOR CEN KS. ONE MIGHT BE NECESSARY FOR SCEN/SE KS...BEST
CHANCE FOR SE. SO WILL GO WITH ONE FOR SE KS AND PORTIONS OF SCEN.

NW FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH. PRECIP CHCS
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOK OK. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR WED/WED
NIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. ALTHOUGH WILL BUMP HIGHS UP JUST A
LITTLE TOMORROW. THINK THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THAN TODAY...
AND 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM SLIGHTLY.

FCSTID = 7/NRR
ICT   64  84  61  87 /  60  20  20  10
HUT   61  81  60  86 /  50  20  20  10
EWK   64  82  62  86 /  60  20  20  10
EQA   65  82  62  86 /  60  20  20  10
WLD   66  84  63  87 /  70  20  20  10
RSL   56  81  55  85 /  40  20  20  10
GBD   57  82  57  85 /  40  20  20  10
SLN   62  79  60  85 /  40  20  20  10
MPR   62  81  60  85 /  40  20  20  10
CFV   66  82  64  85 /  70  30  20  10
CNU   65  81  63  85 /  70  30  20  10
K88   65  81  63  85 /  70  30  20  10

.ICT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES
KSZ069>072...KSZ083...KSZ091>096...KSZ098>100.

r

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-060500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1116 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001

THE FOLLOWING IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RUSSELL            LINCOLN              SALINE
         BARTON             ELLSWORTH            MCPHERSON
         RICE

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RENO                KINGMAN             HARPER
         HARVEY              SEDGWICK            SUMNER
         BUTLER              COWLEY              MARION
         CHASE

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
         GREENWOOD           ELK                 CHAUTAUQUA
         WILSON              WOODSON             MONTGOMERY
         ALLEN               NEOSHO              LABETTE

THE SYNOPSIS:
LATE THIS MORNING...A SURFACE BOUNDARY FORMED BY THE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR IOLA TO SEDAN. TO THE EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE UNSTABLE...AND ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR.

FARTHER WEST IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
THE SUN TO DE-STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A SALINA TO KINGMAN LINE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES.

FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS OR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MOISTURE WILL BE
POOLING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HELPING TO CREATE AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A HUTCHINSON TO IOLA LINE. BEFORE MIDNIGHT...
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND
LATER IN THE NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FLOODING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...AND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.