Wildfire in California, June 26, 2001

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
950 AM PDT TUE JUN 26 2001

                             ...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS. THESE WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. INLAND
VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEK. OVER THE COMING WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO  SHIFT
EASTWARD. THIS WOULD ALLOW MOIST TROPICAL AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
NEXT WEEK AND THE JULY FOURTH HOLIDAY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD
BE WARM MUGGY AND CONTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.

                             ...DISCUSSION...
WEATHER PATTERN NEXT 24 HOURS NOT AS CERTAIN AS EARLIER THOUGHT.
A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL/SRN CALIFORNIA DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT FROM THE N BAJA CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW MOVING INTO ARIZONA
AND THE SHORT WAVE OFF THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST THAT DROPPED
SOUTHEASTWARD.  CONSEQUENTIALLY GENERAL LIFTING TOOK PLACE DURING
THE NIGHT/THIS MORNING OVER SW CALIFORNIA IN THE LOWER 16000 FEET
LEADING TO OBSERVATIONS OF LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA. SUBSIDENCE HAD BEEN
ADVERTISED BY YESTERDAYS MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. NOT SURE IF
12Z MODELS ARE NOW PLAYING CATCH UP OR ARE ON TO A NEW DEVELOPMENT
UPSTREAM.  06Z AVN AND 12Z MESOETA CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS FORECAST
AREA INCREASE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES/MOISTURE BETWEEN 8000 AND
22000 FEET FROM 18Z THROUGH 03Z AND MAINTAIN MEAN RH ABOVE 70
PERCENT THROUGH 27/12Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/PIREPS AND AVN 250 MB
WINDS INDICATE +110 KT JET STREAM DROPPING SE FROM GULF OF ALASKA TO
33N 136W SO COULD BE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH EXTENDING SSW FROM THE OREGON COAST IS GOING TO TAKE
PLACE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL WATCH FOR UPSTREAM
SATELLITE IMAGERY/PIREPS DURING NEXT 4-6 HOURS FOR BAROCLINIC LEAF
FORMATION/CONTINUED EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF JET NOSE. IF VALID WILL
BEEF UP TONIGHTS FORECAST FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL
ZONES AND CARRY FORWARD CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN MTNS/SPRINKLES
BELOW WITH BASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS DRAGGING ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS
AND MARINE LAYER TO THE WEST KEEPING VIRGA FROM COMPLETELY
EVAPORATING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIODS/TREND STILL LOOKS GOOD.
WILL CHECK REMAINING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/NCEP DISCUSSIONS THIS
AFTERNOON TO FURTHER EVALUATE THREAT OF MONSOON MOISTURE RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK. SHIFT BRIEFING WAS MRF CONFIRMED FOR TWO SUBSEQUENT RUNS
SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

SAN --0

.SAN...NONE.

BALFOUR