Hail in Texas, June 26, 2001

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

COMBINATION OF SEABREEZE FRONT..DAYTIME HEATING AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. OUTFLOWS AND SEABREEZE FRONT CONTINUE
TO MOVE INLAND (NOW GETTING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10) WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME MORE STORMS TO POP UP NORTH DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...START UP AGAIN NEAR THE COAST AND COASTAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY AGAIN TOMORROW.
WITH FURTHER MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE UNSTABLE
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE TOMORROW (SEE
PRELIM POPS BELOW). WEDNESDAY'S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK (SEE SPC'S
DAY 2 OUTLOOK) IS TEASINGLY CLOSE TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK (CAPES
3000-4000 AND LI'S -6 TO -9) FOR OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME...PREFER TO
NOT INCLUDE SEVERE IN THE ZONES AND LET ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO
ARRIVE BEFORE DECISION TIME. FORECAST EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE
TRICKIER BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST MAKES PROGRESS FURTHER WEST AND THEN SOUTH
TOWARD TEXAS. ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS TEXAS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IF THE TIMING IS
RIGHT...SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ITSELF TO PRODUCE SOME HEFTY
RAINS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED. LATEST 6 TO 10
DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY CPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO PLACE OUR AREA IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP. THROUGH JUN 25TH...IAH
IS 14.61 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL IN RAINFALL FOR THE YEAR.

42/31/DH

.HGX...NONE.

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 072/090 072/090 072 232
IAH BB 071/090 072/090 072 243
GLS BB 078/087 078/087 078 243