High Wind in California, July 2, 2001

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
900 AM PDT MON JUL 2 2001

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION REMAINS
FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA/S WEATHER. AT 15Z...FRESNO
WAS 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUSLY...AND BAKERSFIELD WAS
3 DEGREES WARMER.

THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING THROUGH
TUESDAY...FOR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR COMPRESSION OF
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM CARVES A SHORT-WAVE ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING ONLY MINOR COOLING...
ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

HAD SOME TOWERING CUMULUS EAST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST SUNDAY.
MORE UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING...THE RESULT OF EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO/TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TODAY ARE MARGINAL...SO EXPECT MAINLY MORE
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO
NEAR THE CREST.

LIFTED INDICIES SLIGHTLY MORE NEGATIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO A BIT
BETTER CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION. OF MORE CONCERN IS WEDNESDAY...
WHEN THE MESO-ETA IS FORECASTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BY 00Z THURSDAY...THE MESO-ETA BRINGS 70-80
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA IN THE 850-
500-MB LAYER. LIFTED INDICES ARE NEGATIVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
A -2 BULLS-EYE OVER FRESNO COUNTY NORTH OF KINGS CANYON. CAPES PEAK
AT 480 J/KG OVER THE SAME LOCATION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 850-MB
THETA-E FIELD HAS A 349 K BULLS-EYE OVER THE NORTHERN TULARE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. THUS FEEL THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STRONG...IF NOT
BORDERLINE SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

POPS FAT BFL 000 YNP 213. SANGER

.HNX...NONE.

CAZ096-097-022300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1030 AM PDT MON JUL 2 2001

...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
CALIFORNIA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE AIRMASS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WILL BECOME UNSTABLE...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DAILY...BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AIRMASS
NEAR THE GROUND AND INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA NORTH OF KERN COUNTY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS.

PEOPLE PLANNING TO TRAVEL INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. IF A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION...SEEK
SHELTER AT ONCE...BUT AVOID ISOLATED TALL TREES THAT CAN BE TARGETS FOR
LIGHTNING. ALSO...BE ALERT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING IN CREEK BEDS OR DRY WASHES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE...FOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN HOLIDAY
THUNDERSTORMS.

SANGER