Waterspouts in Mississippi, July 2, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
245 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2001

A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY COMES WITH THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE. THE
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CENTERS AROUND THE DEGREE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. NWP MODELS NOT INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST DUE TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OUT OF THE GULF.
THIS IN ITSELF PRESENTS PROBLEMS IDENTIFYING SPECIFIC FOCUS
MECHANISMS. USING GUIDANCE FROM HPC...A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
ETA COMBINED WITH THE AVN MAY BE THE BEST SOLUTION IN HANDLING THE
ENERGY MOVING N OUT OF THE GULF. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SWATH OF PRECIP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH THE
HEAVIEST CONCENTRATIONS NEAR COASTAL AREAS. SFC TROF OVER S MS AND
STRETCHING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ESP
AS IT PROGRESSES WWD. AT THIS POINT...WILL GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
MS COASTAL AREAS TODAY WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE BETTER
ENHANCED. WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCT PRECIP
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE S OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HRS...WILL KEEP FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN NATURE SURROUNDING THE GULF OF
MEX. OVERALL...SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE W HALF OF THE GULF PERSISTING AS A RIDGE PATTERN
EXPANDS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CONUS. NOT SURE AT THIS POINT WHAT
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE W GULF WILL DO PENDING ITS INTERACTION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E SECTION OF THE GULF. WILL
PRETTY MUCH LEAD BACK TOWARD CLIMO REGARDING THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPS
NEAR SEASONAL TRENDS COUPLED WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH DAY.

THX FOR COORD MOB...PRELIM NUMBERS...

MCB 90/69/90/70 4242  BTR 90/71/90/72 4242
MSY 89/74/89/75 5352  GPT 87/72/87/73 6352

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

09

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-021800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
600 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2001

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTH MISSISSIPPI INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT WEST TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIER
CONCENTRATIONS SHOULD BE NEAR AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE OF TYPICAL INTENSITY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS COMPOSING OF DOWNBURST WINDS
NEAR 60 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

.ACTIONS...
DUE TO THE ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP...NO ACTIONS ARE RECOMMENDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT
THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS...HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LETTERS
SHOULD BE LOWER CASE).