Alert archive / New York / Jefferson County

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Jefferson County, New York

371 severe thunderstorm warnings since 1986. An alert counts here when it covered this county. The archive of severe thunderstorm warnings reaches back to 1986.

Jefferson County and its neighbors

Each county as a circle sized by its count since 1986. Tap one for its archive.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 371
Busiest year: 202422 severe thunderstorm warnings
Average year: 9over 41 years on file

Over time

By year

Before October 2007 these were issued for whole counties, and a storm crossing three counties was often three warnings; since then one polygon follows the storm. The count changed with the practice, not only with the weather.

Warning verification

How often warnings here had a storm report inside them, and how much warning the reports had.

From 2008 to 2025, 87% of hail, wind and damage reports in Jefferson County fell inside a severe thunderstorm warning issued on average 28 minutes before, and 41% of the severe thunderstorm warnings had no report inside them.

Severe thunderstorm warnings by year

	Warnings	With a report	False alarm ratio	Reports	Inside a warning	Mean lead time
2008	18	11	39%	10	100%	24 min
2009	16	6	63%	6	83%	20 min
2010	11	8	27%	15	87%	37 min
2011	9	3	67%	9	44%	19 min
2012	14	9	36%	9	78%	20 min
2013	12	7	42%	7	86%	25 min
2014	12	8	33%	11	82%	37 min
2015	6	3	50%	0
2016	14	8	43%	12	92%	25 min
2017	17	14	18%	20	95%	20 min
2018	14	9	36%	10	90%	37 min
2019	17	6	65%	8	50%	24 min
2020	15	8	47%	10	100%	28 min
2021	15	10	33%	13	77%	26 min
2022	13	7	46%	8	88%	51 min
2023	15	10	33%	5	80%	23 min
2024	22	13	41%	22	91%	21 min
2025	14	9	36%	32	100%	32 min

Years from 2008, the first full year of storm-based warnings. The year still running is on its own page.

Verified by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow, which matches each storm-based warning with the local storm reports inside its polygon while it was in force, within 15 km of its edge: a tornado warning counts as verified on a tornado report, a severe thunderstorm warning on hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more, or wind damage, a flash flood warning on a flash flood report. The false alarm ratio is the share of warnings with no such report; "inside a warning" is the probability of detection, the share of reports that fell inside one; lead time runs from the warning's issue to each report inside it, counting zero for a report that came first. A warning with no report is not proof nothing happened: reports come from spotters, the public and damage surveys, and are thin where few people live.

The latest severe thunderstorm warnings

The most recent on file, newest first.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 2, 8:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	63 min
Aug 14, 3:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	34 min
Aug 14, 2:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	48 min
Jul 21, 1:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	28 min
Jul 1, 8:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	BUF	33 min
Jul 1, 8:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	BUF	54 min
Jul 1, 8:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	57 min
Jun 30, 11:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	60 min
Jun 30, 10:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	48 min
Jun 30, 1:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	BUF	51 min
Jun 30, 12:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	BUF	85 min
Jun 26, 5:43 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	18 min

Nearby

Alerts in force now Tornadoes on record Forecast The radar archive

Sources

National Weather Service watches, warnings, advisories and statements from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's VTEC archive, which reconstructs tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood and marine warnings back to 1986 from the NWS text archive. Storm Prediction Center watches and mesoscale discussions from SPC's archive through the Mesonet. County centers from the US Census Bureau. Warning verification from the Mesonet's Cow. Rebuilt daily.