Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2026
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 14, 2026, 2:57 PM EDT for Jefferson County, Lewis County, New York. It was in force for 48 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 14, 2026, 2:57 PM EDT (18:57 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 14, 2026, 3:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 48 min
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 0.75 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 3:27 PM EDT | TSTM WND DMG | 1 Nnw Natural Bridge, NY | Multiple trees down in Natural Bridge. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 30 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 235 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 51 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -49 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 827 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 60 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 33 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 91 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
456
WUUS51 KBUF 141857
SVRBUF
NYC045-049-141945-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0094.260814T1857Z-260814T1945Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
257 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026
The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Jefferson County in central New York...
North central Lewis County in central New York...
* Until 345 PM EDT.
* At 256 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hammond
Village, moving southeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Kring Point State Park, Redwood, Rossie, Pitcairn, Fowler,
Philadelphia, Antwerp, Oxbow, Muskellunge Lake, and Natural Bridge.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
&&
LAT...LON 4440 7584 4439 7583 4417 7533 4403 7559
4437 7590
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 316DEG 25KT 4441 7566
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
$$
Brothers1 follow-up statement
720 WWUS51 KBUF 141913 SVSBUF Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 313 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 NYC045-049-141945- /O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-260814T1945Z/ Jefferson NY-Lewis NY- 313 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTH CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTIES... At 313 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fowler, or near Gouverneur Village, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Redwood, Rossie, Pitcairn, Fowler, Philadelphia, Antwerp, Oxbow, Muskellunge Lake, and Natural Bridge. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 4435 7574 4417 7533 4403 7559 4431 7585 TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 320DEG 29KT 4424 7552 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ Brothers
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 14, 1:08 PM EDT, 1 hour 49 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Scattered showers possible this afternoon for areas east of Rochester. 2) The potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms increases Saturday night into Sunday. Shower chances then linger through Monday.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 14, 1:08 PM EDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 108 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor edits made with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers possible this afternoon for areas east of Rochester. 2) The potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms increases Saturday night into Sunday. Shower chances then linger through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Scattered showers possible this afternoon for areas east of Rochester. Exiting upper level trough, will allow for one more shortwave trough to dive southeast across Ontario, Canada and into central New York this afternoon. As such, expect a few showers to develop across areas east of Rochester this afternoon, where said showers are already beginning to develop northwest of the Saint Lawrence River and southeast of the CWA border as of 1230 this afternoon. A few showers may develop into thunderstorms, however given the lack of greater instability this should prevent them from becoming severe. Otherwise, surface high pressure centered over the central Great Lakes will support rather dry condition to persist across WNY through Saturday. Additionally, ample radiational cooling from clear skies under the high tonight will support valley fog across the Southern Tier, the Finger Lakes, the Black River and across areas southeast of Lake Ontario. Key Message 2...The potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms increases Saturday night into Sunday. Shower chances then linger through Monday. Upper level ridging currently across the Upper Great Lakes will work its way east this weekend, allowing for zonal flow and embedded shortwave troughs to pass across the eastern Great Lakes by late Saturday. Meanwhile at the surface, a warm front will work its way eastward across the Great Lakes reaching WNY Saturday night. Warm moist isentropic lift will support scattered showers to pass eastward across the area Saturday night into Sunday. In addition to the showers, some rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out as there will be enough elevated instability. Additional shortwave troughs will pass overhead Sunday and Sunday night, supporting the cold front associated with the low supporting the aforementioned warm front to pass across the region. Along and ahead of the cold frontal passage, expect additional showers and thunderstorms. While conditions will be favorable for a few storms to become severe given moderate instability and moderate to strong deep-layer bulk shear, severe storm development will be contingent on a few factors, the biggest one being the degree of diurnal destabilization of the warm sector. While a ridge will build back into the area Monday, temperatures aloft will cool to around 10C. This combined with the 24C lake waters along with lingering synoptic moisture may support a few lake effect rain showers to develop southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions across western NY terminals with FEW-SCT mid-level clouds around 4-8 kft developing this afternoon. KART will see scattered showers later this afternoon dropping south out of Ontario, otherwise most terminals will remain dry. Generally light flow and efficient radiation cooling tonight will allow for patchy fog development headed into early Saturday morning. KJHW is the most likely to see reduced visibility, but latest HREF guidance does show ~40% chance of MVFR conditions at KROC and KART mainly from 7-11z. Conditions will gradually improve with clearing skies through Saturday morning. Outlook... Saturday Night through Sunday Night...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions expected. Monday...Isolated rain showers with MVFR possible. Monday Night through Tuesday...Dry weather and mainly VFR expected. However, valley fog possible Monday night through about daybreak. Wednesday...Mainly VFR during the day with showers and storms returning in the evening. && .MARINE... Overall, light winds over the lakes today with high pressure building across the lower Great Lakes region keeping waves 2 feet or less. Winds will transition from northerly to easterly during the overnight period headed into Saturday. As high pressure continues to slide eastward, pressure gradients will increase Saturday evening ahead of the next frontal passage with showers and storms into Sunday. Gusty winds and larger waves may be possible in the vicinity of storms. High pressure will build back into the region early next week that will calm winds and waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && DISCUSSION...EAJ AVIATION...Brothers MARINE...Brothers
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 14, 12:47 PM EDT, 2 hours 10 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1247 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-151700- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 1247 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-151700- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 1247 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf SLZ022-024-151700- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 1247 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2:21 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 71 min | |
| Aug 14, 3:25 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Jefferson, Lewis | 34 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York, 2026Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.