Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Buffalo, NY

139 
WWUS51 KBUF 010403
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1203 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

NYC045-049-010430-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-260701T0430Z/
Jefferson NY-Lewis NY-
1203 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...

At 1202 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles south of Pitcairn to near Watertown, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Fort Drum, Carthage, Lowville, West Carthage, Herrings,
Barnes Corners, Whetstone Gulf State Park, Adams Center, and Denmark.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 43 and 47.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4394 7614 4417 7534 4410 7517 4374 7513
      4361 7545
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 303DEG 32KT 4411 7531 4394 7585 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Welch

818 
WWUS51 KBUF 010426
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1226 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

NYC045-049-010436-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-260701T0430Z/
Jefferson NY-Lewis NY-
1226 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1230 AM EDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

&&

LAT...LON 4394 7614 4417 7534 4410 7517 4374 7513
      4361 7545
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 296DEG 36KT 4401 7502 4384 7556 

$$

Welch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
723 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have adjusted PoPs and weather to include the threat of
thunderstorms, similar to this afternoon's set up for Wednesday
night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity through Friday, then slowly lessening
heat/humidity for the holiday weekend.

2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today and
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and humidity through Friday, then
slowly lessening heat/humidity for the holiday weekend.

Building upper level ridging across, with a core of the ridge
strengthening to around 600 dm across the eastern CONUS will
continue through Thursday with the core of the ridge drifting
further east for the weekend. In its wake, a series of shortwave
troughs will dig southeastward across eastern Canada and help
flatten the ridge Friday through the holiday weekend. This being
said, 850 mb temperatures will topple out at +20C this afternoon,
and remain slightly above +20C through Thursday and possibly into
Friday. Then temperatures at 850mb will pull back into the mid to
upper teens this weekend.

In the wake of the warm frontal passage of the warm front,
temperatures this morning and early this afternoon, have warmed up
into the upper 80s and low 90s, except for the North Country where a
current bowing thunderstorm segment if passing across keeping
temperatures at bay and in the upper 70s. These temperatures coupled
with the dewpoints surging into the lower 70s, heat indices will
surge well into the mid 90s and even towards the low 100s range this
afternoon. As such, Heat Advisories remain in effect areawide this
afternoon.

Heat and humidity will continue Wednesday before reaching its peak
on Thursday, supporting daytime highs away from any lake influences
and higher terrain to surge into the lower to mid 90s for many
areas, while the climatologically warmer spots will warm up into the
upper 90s. Meanwhile, dewpoint temperatures will also climb up into
the lower to mid 70s Wednesday and linger through Thursday,
supporting dangerous and oppressive heat indices in the low to mid
100s across Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Livingston, Ontario, Wayne,
Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties, supporting Extreme Heat
Warnings, and upper 90s to low 100s elsewhere, continuing the Heat
Advisories elsewhere.

Gradually relief to the heat and humidity will begin Friday and
continue through the holiday weekend as the strong upper level ridge
slowly flattens and retreats southeastward. This will not only
allow for multiple shortwave troughs to ripple along the northern
periphery of the ridge, but also bring corresponding cooler
temperatures aloft. While there will be some relief to heat indices
on Friday, the 4 days of consistent heat will support Extreme Heat
Warnings to continue into Friday. While cooler temperatures will
grace the area this weekend, should note that the humidity will also
linger.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible today and Wednesday.

An MCS is in the midst of crossing southeast across the North
Country this afternoon bringing widespread damaging winds, large
hail and possibly a tornado. This bowing line segment will soon
exit the area within the next hour.

Similar to this afternoon, another cluster of storms may develop
over Canada and dive southeastward across areas southeastward of
Lake Ontario (from Niagara County to the Genesee Valley through the
North Country) Wednesday afternoon and evening. Strong instability
will again support a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms capable
of producing damaging winds and hail. This being a said, a Slight
Risk for Severe Thunderstorms exists across much of the Niagara
Frontier and east and southeastward across the Genesee Valley and
into the North Country.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly dry weather and VFR flight conditions should tend to prevail
tonight, though some additional showers/storms and associated
restrictions cannot be completely ruled out across the North
Country. Late tonight, some patchy MVFR stratus could form across
the interior of the Southern Tier and North Country.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Possible MVFR ceilings across the Southern Tier and
North Country early...otherwise mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday and Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
In the wake of a warm frontal passage today, modest to moderate
southwesterlies will linger through the remainder of the week.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening
may produce locally higher winds and waves. The risk will be
greatest across Lake Ontario.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Dangerous heat and humidity are expected across western and
north central NY this week. Here are the record maximum and high
minimum temperatures for Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown.

                    6/30        7/1         7/2         7/3
Buffalo, NY
High Max          94(1963)    93(1963)    94(1966)    94(1949)
High Low          73(1941)    75(1901)    75(1931)    74(1911*)

Rochester, NY
High Max          96(1964)    96(1901)    99(1931)    100(1911)
High Low          72(2014)    76(1931)    76(1931*)   75(1911)

Watertown, NY
High Max          89(1977)    92(1967)    92(1966)    91(1966)
High Low          73(2014*)   74(2014)    73(2002)    74(1973)

Average Temperatures for June 30-July 3
Buffalo
Max           79
Min           62

Rochester
Max           82
Min           62

Watertown
Max           78
Min           57

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for NYZ001>006-013-014.
     Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ007-008-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...EAJ
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
815 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

NYZ012-019>021-085-020015-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
815 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening with damaging winds the primary hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-020015-
Niagara-Orleans-
815 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening with damaging winds the primary hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-011-020015-
Northern Erie-Genesee-
815 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening with damaging winds the primary hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>005-013-014-020015-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
815 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening with damaging winds the primary hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-020015-
Oswego-
815 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening with damaging winds the primary hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-020015-
Jefferson-Lewis-
815 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening with damaging winds the primary hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-062-020015-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
815 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening with damaging winds the primary hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-020015-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
815 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening with damaging winds the primary hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-020015-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
815 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening with damaging winds the primary hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
617 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Castorland              43.88N 75.52W
06/30/2026                   Lewis              NY   Emergency Mngr

            Delayed report. Report from Emergency
            Manager of numerous trees downed across
            Castorland. Time estimated by radar.

&&