Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Buffalo, NY

016 
WWUS51 KBUF 012303
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
703 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

NYC029-063-012312-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-260701T2315Z/
Erie NY-Niagara NY-
703 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL ERIE AND NIAGARA
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4330 7909 4340 7864 4342 7840 4339 7817
      4337 7818 4338 7839 4337 7846 4321 7846
      4306 7878 4302 7883 4300 7891 4296 7894
      4299 7901 4302 7902 4306 7900 4308 7908
      4312 7907 4315 7904 4325 7906
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 271DEG 45KT 4343 7817 4308 7879 

$$

Welch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
352 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor edits made with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity through Friday, then slowly lessening
heat/humidity for the holiday weekend.

2) Showers and thunderstorms possible at times through the weekend,
a few of which may be strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and humidity through Friday, then
slowly lessening heat/humidity for the holiday weekend.

Strong, dominant mid and upper level ridge will remain focused over
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region through the end of the work
week, supporting the continuation of oppressive heat and humidity
across the eastern Great Lakes. 850mb temperatures will continue to
be between the +20C to +22C range through Thursday, before a slight
cool down starting Friday.

High temperatures today and Thursday will solidly be in the mid 90s
for areas away from any lake influences. A few of the climatological
warmer locations will have a few readings in the upper 90s, with
even the higher elevations across the Southern Tier and eastern Lake
Ontario region reading in the upper 80s to near 90. These high
temperatures combined with the dewpoint readings in the mid to upper
70s are resulting in dangerous heat index values, which will
continue through Thursday. Peak heat index values this afternoon and
Thursday afternoon will reach the 104 to 108 range in the Extreme
Heat Warning areas, and the 98 to 104 range in the Heat Advisory
areas. The Buffalo Metro area and Jefferson County will continue to
benefit from southwest flow off the cooler lakes over the next few
days, but it will still be very warm and humid nonetheless.

As the mid and upper level ridge begins to retreat back into the
southeastern portions of the CONUS this weekend, a frontal boundary
will sag southward across the Great Lakes and support some relief to
the heat and humidity. Daytime highs will settle back into the mid
to upper 80s Saturday and the low to mid 80s Sunday. While
temperatures will be cooling, should note that it will still be
humid, however conditions won't be as oppressive as today and
Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms possible at times through
the weekend, a few of which may be strong to severe.

Synoptic pattern remains similar today as it was the previous day,
which will continue through Thursday with the region located on the
northern periphery of the strong ridge over the Ohio Valley. Heat
and humidity will will continue to support strong instability to
persist across the area. Convectively modulated shortwaves will
continue to pass along the top of the ridge from the upper Great
Lakes to southern Quebec and northern New England. Thus allowing
each shortwave disturbance to provide an uptick in mesoscale ascent
to support clusters of showers and thunderstorms.

For western and north central New York, the most likely location for
one or two more rounds of showers and thunderstorms is east of Lake
Ontario and the Saint Lawrence Valley. Latest high-res CAMS guidance
continues to be in poor agreement with the timing and placement of
potential thunderstorms complexes, but it appears the most likely
time frame will be this evening through tonight. For the rest of the
area, expect mainly dry weather this afternoon through tonight with
southwest flow supporting a stable lake shadow over and northeast of
Lake Erie.

As previously mentioned, expect a similar synoptic pattern Thursday
and Friday, with several complexes of showers and thunderstorms
developing north and west of our area, each being difficult to time
and place as any remnants move into/across the eastern Great Lakes.

A better chance of more organized showers and thunderstorms will
arrive this weekend as the upper level ridge begins to break down,
allowing and east-west oriented frontal zone to sag slowly south
across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Primarily dry weather and VFR are expected through 18Z/Thurs as a
surface ridge centered near the Mid OH Valley continues to affect
western and central NY. Our regional surface winds trend SW'erly
around 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are expected at
times before 00Z/Thurs and after ~14Z/Thurs.

At 17:20Z/Wed, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms was located
over northern Lower MI and another was located over eastern portions
of WI. These clusters of showers/thunderstorms should persist
generally E'ward to ESE'ward and impact the Eastern Lake Ontario
Region, including KART, between ~22Z/Wed and ~06Z/Thurs. Brief MVFR
to LIFR, frequent lightning, and brief/erratic surface wind gusts up
to 40 to 50 knots should accompany the storms.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible at times with localized/brief MVFR or
worse conditions.

Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
likely at times. Any thunderstorms will produce localized/brief
MVFR or worse conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure ridge anchored over the Mid OH Valley affects
Lakes Erie and Ontario before a weak cold front drifts S'ward
across the lakes Saturday through Saturday night. Behind the
front, a ridge builds from the northern Great Lakes through
Monday. Ahead of the front, winds trend SW'erly to W'erly
around 5 to 15 knots with waves of 3 feet or less. Behind the
front, winds should be primarily N'erly to E'erly around 5 to 15
knots and waves should remain 3 feet or less.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Dangerous heat and humidity are expected across western and
north central NY this week. Here are the record maximum and high
minimum temperatures for Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown.

                    7/1         7/2         7/3
Buffalo, NY
High Max          93(1963)    94(1966)    94(1949)
High Low          75(1901)    75(1931)    74(1911*)

Rochester, NY
High Max          96(1901)    99(1931)    100(1911)
High Low          76(1931)    76(1931*)   75(1911)

Watertown, NY
High Max          92(1967)    92(1966)    91(1966)
High Low          74(2014)    73(2002)    74(1973)

Average Temperatures for June 30-July 3
Buffalo
Max           79
Min           62

Rochester
Max           82
Min           62

Watertown
Max           78
Min           57

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ001>006-013-
     014.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ007-008-010>012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka
CLIMATE...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
505 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

NYZ010>012-019>021-085-022115-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
505 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly
this evening through tonight. While there is a risk of severe
weather, the better chance of thunderstorms will remain northeast of
the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

More rounds of thunderstorms are expected at times Thursday through
the weekend. A few of these storms may be strong to severe, with
locally strong winds the main hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-013-014-022115-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Livingston-Ontario-
505 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly
this evening through tonight. While there is a risk of severe
weather, the better chance of thunderstorms will remain northeast of
the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

More rounds of thunderstorms are expected at times Thursday through
the weekend. A few of these storms may be strong to severe, with
locally strong winds the main hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-022115-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
505 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly this evening
through tonight. The main hazard will be damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Heat Warning.

More rounds of thunderstorms are expected at times Thursday through
the weekend. A few of these storms may be strong to severe, with
locally strong winds the main hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-022115-
Lewis-
505 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

More rounds of thunderstorms are expected at times Thursday through
the weekend. A few of these storms may be strong to severe, with
locally strong winds the main hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-022115-
Jefferson-
505 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly this evening
through tonight. The main hazard will be damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

More rounds of thunderstorms are expected at times Thursday through
the weekend. A few of these storms may be strong to severe, with
locally strong winds the main hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-062-022115-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
505 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly
this evening through tonight. While there is a risk of severe
weather, the better chance of thunderstorms will remain northeast of
the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

More rounds of thunderstorms are expected at times Thursday through
the weekend. A few of these storms may be strong, with locally
higher winds and waves.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-022115-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
505 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms, mainly
this evening through tonight. The main risk will be locally strong
wind gusts and higher waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

More rounds of thunderstorms are expected at times Thursday through
the weekend. A few of these storms may be strong, with locally
higher winds and waves.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-022115-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
505 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

More rounds of thunderstorms are expected at times Thursday through
the weekend. A few of these storms may be strong, with locally
higher
winds and waves.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
603 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 N Louisville          44.96N 74.94W
07/01/2026  M44 MPH          SLZ024             NY   ASOS

            38 knot wind gust measured at KMSS.

&&