Alert archive / Michigan / Bay County
Weather alerts in Bay County, Michigan, 2015
101 weather alerts in 2015, from the National Weather Service and the Storm Prediction Center. An alert counts here when it covered this county.
Bay County and its neighbors
Each county as a circle sized by its count in 2015. Tap one for its archive.
- Alerts
- 101
- Warnings
- 21
- Watches
- 9
- Advisories
- 30
- Busiest month
- August18 alerts
- Busiest day
- August 2, 20156 alerts
Over time
By month
Warning verification
How often warnings here had a storm report inside them, and how much warning the reports had.
0 of 1 tornado warnings covering Bay County in 2015 had a tornado report inside them.
Bay County, 2015
| Warnings | With a report | False alarm ratio | Reports | Inside a warning | Mean lead time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tornado warnings | 1 | 0 | 100% | 0 | ||
| Severe thunderstorm warnings | 12 | 9 | 25% | 11 | 91% | 26 min |
| Flash flood warnings | 2 | 0 | 100% | 0 |
Each office's whole area, 2015
| Warnings | With a report | False alarm ratio | Reports | Inside a warning | Mean lead time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWS Detroit, MI: tornado warnings | 10 | 3 | 70% | 7 | 57% | 15 min |
| NWS Detroit, MI: severe thunderstorm warnings | 69 | 50 | 28% | 177 | 70% | 25 min |
| NWS Detroit, MI: flash flood warnings | 5 | 0 | 100% | 0 |
An office's figures cover every county it serves, including across state lines.
Verified by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow, which matches each storm-based warning with the local storm reports inside its polygon while it was in force, within 15 km of its edge: a tornado warning counts as verified on a tornado report, a severe thunderstorm warning on hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more, or wind damage, a flash flood warning on a flash flood report. The false alarm ratio is the share of warnings with no such report; "inside a warning" is the probability of detection, the share of reports that fell inside one; lead time runs from the warning's issue to each report inside it, counting zero for a report that came first. A warning with no report is not proof nothing happened: reports come from spotters, the public and damage surveys, and are thin where few people live.
The alerts
Every alert, in the order issued. Times are local, Eastern Time. Each opens its own page with the text, the map, the radar and the sounding.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 4:10 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | DTX | 27 hr |
| Jan 4, 7:59 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | DTX | 11 hr |
| Jan 4, 3:03 PM EST | Wind Chill Advisory | DTX | 21 hr |
| Jan 6, 3:15 PM EST | Wind Chill Advisory | DTX | 49 hr |
| Jan 8, 3:57 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | DTX | 21 hr |
| Jan 9, 3:39 PM EST | Wind Chill Advisory | DTX | 20 hr |
| Feb 1, 3:29 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | DTX | 26 hr |
| Feb 11, 10:00 PM EST | Wind Chill Advisory | DTX | 35 hr |
| Feb 13, 2:49 PM EST | Wind Chill Watch | DTX | 12 hr |
| Feb 14, 3:17 AM EST | Wind Chill Warning | DTX | 33 hr |
| Feb 15, 11:59 AM EST | Wind Chill Advisory | DTX | 20 hr |
| Feb 18, 11:25 AM EST | Wind Chill Warning | DTX | 26 hr |
| Feb 18, 11:25 AM EST | Wind Chill Advisory | DTX | 47 hr |
| Feb 22, 3:57 AM EST | Wind Chill Advisory | DTX | 32 hr |
| Mar 2, 3:40 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | DTX | 27 hr |
| Apr 4, 2:33 PM EDT | Winter Weather Advisory | DTX | 18 hr |
| Apr 9, 4:00 PM EDT | Wind Advisory | DTX | 23 hr |
| Apr 10, 12:56 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 94 min |
| Apr 10, 1:09 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 66 min |
| May 11, 3:46 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 119 min |
| May 13, 3:47 PM EDT | Frost Advisory | DTX | 16 hr |
| May 19, 3:35 PM EDT | Freeze Warning | DTX | 16 hr |
| May 22, 3:39 PM EDT | Frost Advisory | DTX | 16 hr |
| May 25, 3:35 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 25 min |
| May 25, 4:21 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | 39 min |
| May 26, 3:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
| May 26, 4:41 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| May 26, 4:53 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| May 29, 7:46 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 29 min |
| May 31, 8:48 AM EDT | Lakeshore Flood Advisory | DTX | 13 hr |
| Jun 6, 4:23 AM EDT | Beach Hazards Statement | DTX | 12 hr |
| Jun 8, 12:27 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 33 min |
| Jun 8, 12:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | 55 min |
| Jun 8, 2:06 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 114 min |
| Jun 18, 5:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | 67 min |
| Jun 18, 6:47 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | DTX | 43 min |
| Jun 22, 1:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 4 hr |
| Jun 22, 8:45 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 45 min |
| Jun 22, 9:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | 59 min |
| Jun 22, 9:17 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
| Jun 29, 4:57 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 33 min |
| Jul 14, 1:34 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 56 min |
| Jul 14, 4:25 AM EDT | Beach Hazards Statement | DTX | 42 hr |
| Jul 18, 10:51 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 39 min |
| Jul 20, 8:33 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 42 min |
| Jul 25, 3:47 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 43 min |
| Jul 29, 2:06 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 54 min |
| Aug 2, 2:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | 55 min |
| Aug 2, 3:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | 32 min |
| Aug 2, 5:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | 48 min |
| Aug 2, 6:08 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 97 min |
| Aug 2, 6:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
| Aug 2, 7:45 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | 30 min |
| Aug 2, 9:02 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 118 min |
| Aug 10, 4:49 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 41 min |
| Aug 14, 4:09 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 66 min |
| Aug 14, 4:35 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 115 min |
| Aug 14, 5:00 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 2 hr |
| Aug 14, 5:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | 46 min |
| Aug 14, 6:05 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | DTX | 2 hr |
| Aug 19, 2:34 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 116 min |
| Aug 19, 3:53 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 37 min |
| Aug 19, 6:41 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 19 min |
| Aug 23, 1:12 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 93 min |
| Aug 30, 11:13 PM EDT | Dense Fog Advisory | DTX | 10 hr |
| Sep 1, 5:03 AM EDT | Dense Fog Advisory | DTX | 4 hr |
| Sep 2, 7:47 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 43 min |
| Sep 3, 10:10 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 95 min |
| Sep 3, 10:27 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 33 min |
| Sep 3, 11:08 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | 52 min |
| Sep 3, 1:47 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | DTX | 3 hr |
| Sep 3, 3:00 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | DTX | 3 hr |
| Sep 3, 4:37 PM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | DTX | 9 hr |
| Sep 5, 6:38 AM EDT | Dense Fog Advisory | DTX | 3 hr |
| Sep 8, 1:07 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Sep 8, 3:37 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | 53 min |
| Sep 8, 3:59 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 91 min |
| Sep 10, 8:46 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 59 min |
| Sep 24, 5:57 AM EDT | Dense Fog Advisory | DTX | 4 hr |
| Oct 15, 3:41 PM EDT | Freeze Watch | DTX | 23 hr |
| Oct 16, 3:03 PM EDT | Freeze Warning | DTX | 18 hr |
| Oct 17, 2:20 PM EDT | Freeze Warning | DTX | 19 hr |
| Oct 19, 9:25 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 65 min |
| Oct 24, 3:04 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 86 min |
| Nov 6, 5:13 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 62 min |
| Nov 6, 5:46 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 59 min |
| Nov 11, 3:38 PM EST | Wind Advisory | DTX | 28 hr |
| Nov 20, 4:03 AM EST | Winter Storm Watch | DTX | 11 hr |
| Nov 20, 3:25 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | DTX | 31 hr |
| Dec 5, 3:07 AM EST | Dense Fog Advisory | DTX | 9 hr |
| Dec 6, 8:20 PM EST | Dense Fog Advisory | DTX | 15 hr |
| Dec 7, 4:43 PM EST | Dense Fog Advisory | DTX | 13 hr |
| Dec 12, 8:07 PM EST | Dense Fog Advisory | DTX | 14 hr |
| Dec 13, 10:05 AM EST | Dense Fog Advisory | DTX | 3 hr |
| Dec 14, 1:12 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 93 min |
| Dec 14, 1:40 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | 65 min |
| Dec 23, 3:23 PM EST | Wind Advisory | DTX | 17 hr |
| Dec 23, 5:28 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | DTX | 92 min |
| Dec 27, 3:30 AM EST | Winter Storm Watch | DTX | 23 hr |
| Dec 28, 2:39 AM EST | Winter Storm Warning | DTX | 22 hr |
| Dec 28, 7:00 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 5 hr |
By product
Every kind of product issued here, grouped by hazard. Each opens the same place narrowed to that product.
| Product | Alerts |
|---|---|
| Severe storms | |
| Severe Thunderstorm Warning | 12 |
| Tornado Warning | 1 |
| Severe Thunderstorm Watch | 3 |
| Tornado Watch | 1 |
| Mesoscale Discussion | 13 |
| Special Weather Statement | 26 |
| Flooding | |
| Flash Flood Warning | 2 |
| Flash Flood Watch | 1 |
| Areal Flood Advisory | 1 |
| Winter | |
| Winter Storm Warning | 1 |
| Winter Storm Watch | 2 |
| Winter Weather Advisory | 7 |
| Cold | |
| Freeze Warning | 3 |
| Wind Chill Warning | 2 |
| Freeze Watch | 1 |
| Wind Chill Watch | 1 |
| Frost Advisory | 2 |
| Wind Chill Advisory | 7 |
| Wind and dust | |
| Wind Advisory | 3 |
| Fog and smoke | |
| Dense Fog Advisory | 9 |
| Coast and beach | |
| Lakeshore Flood Advisory | 1 |
| Beach Hazards Statement | 2 |
The busiest days
Days with the most alerts issued, by UTC date.
Nearby
Alerts in force nowTornadoes on recordForecastThe radar archive20142016
Sources
National Weather Service watches, warnings, advisories and statements from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's VTEC archive, which reconstructs tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood and marine warnings back to 1986 from the NWS text archive. Storm Prediction Center watches and mesoscale discussions from SPC's archive through the Mesonet. County centers from the US Census Bureau. Warning verification from the Mesonet's Cow. Rebuilt daily.