Alert archive / Michigan / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 338

June 22, 20154 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jun 22, 2015, 8:17 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 22, 2015, 8:17 PM CDT (01:17 UTC)
Expired
Jun 23, 2015, 2:00 AM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 68 counties

Iroquois County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Will County, IL, Allen County, IN, Benton County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Howard County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Lake County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Newton County, IN, Noble County, IN, Porter County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Warren County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Bay County, MI, Berrien County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Huron County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Henry County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Williams County, OH

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

36 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 22, 8:44 PM CDTTornado WarningDTXSaginaw, Tuscola46 min
Jun 22, 8:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXSanilac68 min
Jun 22, 9:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRKalamazoo, Van Buren44 min
Jun 22, 9:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRBarry, Calhoun, Eaton61 min
Jun 22, 9:16 PM CDTTornado WarningDTXSanilac44 min
Jun 22, 9:25 PM CDTTornado WarningGRRKalamazoo, Van Buren50 min
Jun 22, 9:30 PM CDTTornado WarningDTXLapeer, Tuscola29 min
Jun 22, 9:34 PM CDTTornado WarningDTXShiawassee18 min
Jun 22, 9:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXGenesee54 min
Jun 22, 9:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTCook, Kankakee, Will37 min
Jun 22, 9:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRAllegan, Van Buren43 min
Jun 22, 9:53 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedLOTGrundy, Kankakee, Will32 min
Jun 22, 9:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXLapeer63 min
Jun 22, 10:05 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLOTGrundy, Kendall, Will7 hr
Jun 22, 10:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTIroquois, Kankakee, Will66 min
Jun 22, 10:12 PM CDTTornado WarningLOTKankakee18 min
Jun 22, 10:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRAllegan, Barry, Calhoun, Eaton46 min
Jun 22, 10:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXSaint Clair75 min
Jun 22, 10:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRKalamazoo, Van Buren42 min
Jun 22, 10:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRIngham, Jackson44 min
Jun 22, 10:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTGrundy, Kankakee, LaSalle, Livingston, Will53 min
Jun 22, 10:39 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLOTGrundy, Iroquois, Kankakee, Livingston, Will8 hr
Jun 22, 10:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTBenton, Jasper, Newton39 min
Jun 22, 10:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXShiawassee44 min
Jun 22, 10:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRCalhoun34 min
Jun 22, 11:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningIWXCass, Fulton, Pulaski, White56 min
Jun 22, 11:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRRJackson24 min
Jun 22, 11:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTFord, Iroquois, Kankakee, Livingston43 min
Jun 22, 11:22 PM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyLOTKankakee7 hr
Jun 22, 11:23 PM CDTTornado WarningLOTFord, Iroquois, Kankakee, Livingston37 min
Jun 22, 11:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXWashtenaw76 min
Jun 22, 11:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningINDCarroll41 min
Jun 22, 11:43 PM CDTTornado WarningLOTIroquois, Kankakee26 min
Jun 23, 12:32 AM CDTTornado WarningDTXWashtenaw29 min
Jun 23, 12:44 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXWayne48 min
Jun 23, 1:02 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTXLenawee, Monroe73 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2015-06-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2155 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2015-06-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 461 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2155 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-42 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
783 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
461 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
798 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
7.6
Supercell composite
31.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

761 
WWUS20 KWNS 230114
SEL8  
SPC WW 230114
ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-LEZ000-LHZ000-230700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
  NORTHERN INDIANA
  SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
  NORTHWEST OHIO
  LAKE ERIE
  LAKE HURON

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 915 PM
  UNTIL 300 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
    MPH POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER JET AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA WILL FUEL ROBUST STORM UPDRAFTS AMIDST INTENSIFYING
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELL AND
FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF MOUNT
CLEMENS MICHIGAN TO 45 MILES NORTH OF CHAMPAIGN ILLINOIS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 335...WW 336...WW 337...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...CARBIN

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 22, 7:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCook, Lake59 min
Jun 22, 7:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Hancock, Pike, Schuyler56 min
Jun 22, 7:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Brown, Calhoun, Pike4 hr
Jun 22, 8:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBureau, DeWitt, Fulton, Grundy, Hancock, Henderson and 21 more59 min
Jun 22, 9:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Pike, Scott64 min
Jun 22, 10:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChampaign, Cook, Douglas, Ford, Iroquois, Kankakee and 2 more60 min
Jun 23, 1:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMonroe2 hr
Jun 23, 2:30 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAshtabula, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina and 3 more3 hr
Jun 23, 4:30 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshtabula, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Mahoning and 4 more60 min
Jun 23, 9:28 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAthens, Belmont, Fairfield, Gallia, Guernsey, Harrison and 16 more2 hr
Jun 23, 12:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAthens, Belmont, Gallia, Guernsey, Harrison, Jackson and 10 more7 hr
Jun 23, 2:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAthens, Belmont, Gallia, Jackson, Lawrence, Meigs and 5 more95 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Michigan, 2015Tornado Watches in Indiana, 2015Tornado Watches in Ohio, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.