Alert archive / Michigan / Tornado Watches in 2015
Tornado Watch 338
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jun 22, 2015, 8:17 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 22, 2015, 8:17 PM CDT (01:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 23, 2015, 2:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 65 kt
All 68 counties
Iroquois County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Will County, IL, Allen County, IN, Benton County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Howard County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Lake County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Newton County, IN, Noble County, IN, Porter County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Warren County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Bay County, MI, Berrien County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Huron County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Henry County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Williams County, OH
The radar
The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 30%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 40%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 40%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 80%
Warnings issued inside it
36 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 8:44 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DTX | Saginaw, Tuscola | 46 min |
| Jun 22, 8:53 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Sanilac | 68 min |
| Jun 22, 9:01 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Kalamazoo, Van Buren | 44 min |
| Jun 22, 9:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Barry, Calhoun, Eaton | 61 min |
| Jun 22, 9:16 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DTX | Sanilac | 44 min |
| Jun 22, 9:25 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | GRR | Kalamazoo, Van Buren | 50 min |
| Jun 22, 9:30 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DTX | Lapeer, Tuscola | 29 min |
| Jun 22, 9:34 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DTX | Shiawassee | 18 min |
| Jun 22, 9:36 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Genesee | 54 min |
| Jun 22, 9:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Cook, Kankakee, Will | 37 min |
| Jun 22, 9:47 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Allegan, Van Buren | 43 min |
| Jun 22, 9:53 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | LOT | Grundy, Kankakee, Will | 32 min |
| Jun 22, 9:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Lapeer | 63 min |
| Jun 22, 10:05 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LOT | Grundy, Kendall, Will | 7 hr |
| Jun 22, 10:09 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Iroquois, Kankakee, Will | 66 min |
| Jun 22, 10:12 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | LOT | Kankakee | 18 min |
| Jun 22, 10:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Allegan, Barry, Calhoun, Eaton | 46 min |
| Jun 22, 10:15 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Saint Clair | 75 min |
| Jun 22, 10:25 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Kalamazoo, Van Buren | 42 min |
| Jun 22, 10:31 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Ingham, Jackson | 44 min |
| Jun 22, 10:37 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Grundy, Kankakee, LaSalle, Livingston, Will | 53 min |
| Jun 22, 10:39 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LOT | Grundy, Iroquois, Kankakee, Livingston, Will | 8 hr |
| Jun 22, 10:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Benton, Jasper, Newton | 39 min |
| Jun 22, 10:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Shiawassee | 44 min |
| Jun 22, 10:56 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Calhoun | 34 min |
| Jun 22, 11:04 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IWX | Cass, Fulton, Pulaski, White | 56 min |
| Jun 22, 11:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Jackson | 24 min |
| Jun 22, 11:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Ford, Iroquois, Kankakee, Livingston | 43 min |
| Jun 22, 11:22 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LOT | Kankakee | 7 hr |
| Jun 22, 11:23 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | LOT | Ford, Iroquois, Kankakee, Livingston | 37 min |
| Jun 22, 11:29 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Washtenaw | 76 min |
| Jun 22, 11:34 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IND | Carroll | 41 min |
| Jun 22, 11:43 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | LOT | Iroquois, Kankakee | 26 min |
| Jun 23, 12:32 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | DTX | Washtenaw | 29 min |
| Jun 23, 12:44 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Wayne | 48 min |
| Jun 23, 1:02 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Lenawee, Monroe | 73 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2155 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -42 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 783 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 70 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 461 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 798 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 7.6
- Supercell composite
- 31.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
761
WWUS20 KWNS 230114
SEL8
SPC WW 230114
ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-LEZ000-LHZ000-230700-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHERN INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 915 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER JET AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA WILL FUEL ROBUST STORM UPDRAFTS AMIDST INTENSIFYING
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELL AND
FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF MOUNT
CLEMENS MICHIGAN TO 45 MILES NORTH OF CHAMPAIGN ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 335...WW 336...WW 337...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...CARBINSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 7:31 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cook, Lake | 59 min |
| Jun 22, 7:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Brown, Hancock, Pike, Schuyler | 56 min |
| Jun 22, 7:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Brown, Calhoun, Pike | 4 hr |
| Jun 22, 8:16 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bureau, DeWitt, Fulton, Grundy, Hancock, Henderson and 21 more | 59 min |
| Jun 22, 9:41 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Brown, Pike, Scott | 64 min |
| Jun 22, 10:00 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Champaign, Cook, Douglas, Ford, Iroquois, Kankakee and 2 more | 60 min |
| Jun 23, 1:43 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Monroe | 2 hr |
| Jun 23, 2:30 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ashtabula, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina and 3 more | 3 hr |
| Jun 23, 4:30 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashtabula, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Mahoning and 4 more | 60 min |
| Jun 23, 9:28 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Athens, Belmont, Fairfield, Gallia, Guernsey, Harrison and 16 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 23, 12:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Athens, Belmont, Gallia, Guernsey, Harrison, Jackson and 10 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 23, 2:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Athens, Belmont, Gallia, Jackson, Lawrence, Meigs and 5 more | 95 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Michigan, 2015Tornado Watches in Indiana, 2015Tornado Watches in Ohio, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.