Special Marine Warning 76, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
133 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation Section for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional showers and thunderstorms through today could lead to
further instances of flash flooding. However the threat for
widespread significant flash flooding has diminished.

2) High pressure builds in for Wednesday with the chance of showers
and storms returning again for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Additional showers and thunderstorms through today
could lead to further instances of flash flooding. However the
threat for widespread significant flash flooding has diminished.

For the day today, a broad area of low pressure will linger to
our south over eastern Virginia while high pressure remains near
eastern New England. This will allow for a continuing east to
northeast low level flow and further rounds of showers and
thunderstorms developing especially by the afternoon. However
the best low level convergence as well as upper level right jet
entrance dynamics will be shifted slightly east compared to
Sunday. The result of this will be that the heaviest of the
rainfall will be favored near NYC east through Long Island and
north into parts of southern New England. This is the area now
in a MODERATE risk of excessive rainfall from the Weather
Prediction Center while most of our forecast area is in A SLIGHT
risk. This still means that scattered instances of flash
flooding will be possible and the Flood Watch that was issued
yesterday remains in effect until 8 PM this evening. Expect a
generally lull in showers this morning before showers and
storms become more widespread again by the afternoon. Rain rates
of over 2 inches per hour will be possible with urban, low
lying areas, and areas that were hit hard with rainfall this
past evening seeing the best chance for flash flooding.
Otherwise, it's also worth noting that it will not be getting
quite as unstable this afternoon due to much of the area being
"worked over" by previous convection and mainly cloudy skies.
This will limit the risk of severe weather. The Storm Prediction
Center has our Delmarva zones in a MARGINAL risk for severe
weather (meaning any severe weather should be isolated) with the
remainder of our CWA in a general risk (non severe
thunderstorms). Damaging winds will be the biggest threat with
any severe storms.

For tonight through Tuesday, low pressure will slowly move off to
the north and east as several additional weak impulses of energy
aloft move through. Showers/storms should diminish in coverage
through this evening with rates diminishing as well. Some additional
showers are likely for Tuesday but they are not expected to be heavy
so no further flooding is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure builds in for Wednesday with the
chance of showers and storms returning again for Thursday and
Friday.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday with seasonable
temperatures and partly to mostly sunny skies expected.

As we head towards the end of the week into next weekend, a new
frontal boundary and associated upper level trough will move in from
the west bringing a return to chances of showers and storms. POPs
increase to 30-40 percent by Thursday and then 40-60 percent by
Friday. It's possible that the front and associated showers/storms
linger for the start of next weekend however forecast confidence is
low by this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
through the rest of the afternoon, resulting in continued
MVFR/IFR ceilings at all terminals. Greater chances for storms
remain near KMIV/KACY, so opted to include VCTS there for rest
of day. Northeast winds around 5-10 kt, locally higher in any
heavier showers or storms. Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight...Any storms will gradually wane after 00Z, however,
residual showers may continue throughout the night. Ceilings are
expected to be prevailing IFR to LIFR through the night. Patchy
areas of fog cannot be ruled out. North-northeast winds around
5-10 kt. Moderate-low confidence overall.

Tuesday...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible. Anticipate MVFR ceilings to prevail through much of
the day. Northeast winds around 5-10 kt. Moderate-high
confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday...Chances for showers return by late
Thursday into Friday and this could result in sub VFR conditions
at times.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are anticipated through tonight. East winds
generally 10-20 knots for Monday shifting to north/northeast
Monday night. Seas generally 2-3 feet except up to 4 feet by
later Monday into Monday night off the coast of Monmouth and
Ocean Counties. Expect additional rounds of showers over the
waters through Monday night.

Outlook...

No marine headlines are currently anticipated through the rest
of the week.

Rip Currents...

Through Tuesday...Winds remain east to southeast around 10 kt,
with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Resulting increasing NE
wind wave will return an elevated MODERATE Rip Current Risk
along much of the Jersey Shore Monday and Tuesday, with LOW risk
persisting over Cape May/Atlantic Counties and the Delaware
Beaches, where winds remain lighter and more SSE through Tuesday
afternoon.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ054-055-060>062-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
DE...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons
MARINE...Fitzsimmons

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
349 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-070915-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
349 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening could
result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1225 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     Flash Flood      1 N Northeast Philadelp 40.11N 75.02W
07/06/2026                   Philadelphia       PA   Emergency Mngr

            SEPTA Trenton service suspended due to water
            over the rails. Time estimated.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1227 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     Flash Flood      1 N Philadelphia        39.96N 75.15W
07/06/2026                   Philadelphia       PA   Emergency Mngr

            Flooding along 8th Street and Fairmount
            Avenue. A vehicle was stuck by the rail
            bridge.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1228 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     Flash Flood      1 SE Ocean Twp.         40.24N 74.04W
07/06/2026                   Monmouth           NJ   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Video sent in of cars stuck in high water on
            Route 35 in Ocean Township.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1242 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     Flash Flood      Eatontown               40.30N 74.06W
07/06/2026                   Monmouth           NJ   Broadcast Media

            Pictures sent in of significant flooding in
            Eatontown. Roads flooded, vehicles half
            submerged and yards underwater.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
112 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     Flash Flood      Lakewood Twp            40.09N 74.22W
07/06/2026                   Ocean              NJ   Newspaper

            Pictures sent in of significant flooding in
            Lakewood with some road closures and
            impassable roadways.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
135 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     Flash Flood      1 ESE Cooperstown       40.04N 74.89W
07/06/2026                   Burlington         NJ   Emergency Mngr

            Flooding along Veterans Parkway and Babbit
            Lane with some flooding around Bradford Lane
            as well. Time estimated.

&&

Hoeflich