Special Marine Warning 73, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
801 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe thunderstorm Watch has been issued for parts of South
New Jersey, metro Philadelphia and Delmarva until 1AM Monday.

Updated for the 00Z TAFs.

Heat Advisory has been discontinued.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected to impact the area late today and continuing through
Monday bringing the threat for flash flooding.

2) Severe weather remains a threat with showers and storms
later this afternoon through this evening with the greatest
threat existing for areas near the I-78 corridor southward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms
are expected to impact the area tonight and continuing into Monday
bringing the threat for flash flooding.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the I-95 corridor and points
northwest through 8 PM Monday.

A somewhat diffuse frontal boundary remains situated across the
area. As of the evening hours, showers and thunderstorms have developed
over many areas in response to diurnal heating plus weak impulses
moving through aloft. The atmospheric column is more saturated compared
to yesterday with PWATs progged to be over 2 inches. At the surface,
the front is stationary over portions of eastern PA into central
portions of NJ. Aloft, the area will be under the right entrance
region of a jet streak over New England extending into the Canadian
Maritimes. This pattern looks to lock in place right through Monday.
Heavy showers and some storms will become widespread across the
area this evening into tonight. Rain rates of over 2 inches per
hour are likely at times and model guidance indicates there
will be areas likely to see 3-4+ inch rainfall amounts in just a
matter of a few hours within the heaviest storms. Concern remains
for flash flooding impacts, some potentially significant, especially
for the I-95 corridor and points northwest.

Overnight, showers and storms should temper down at least somewhat
due to the loss of daytime heating, however, there will still be
plenty of frontal forcing at the surface and jet support aloft
to at least keep some showers and possible storms around. This
is not a setup where convection will be completely dying after
sunset. Lingering elevated instability will mean even overnight
lightning will be possible.

Unfortunately, very little change is likely into Monday. Expect
showers/storms to linger over the area and potentially become
quite widespread and heavy by the afternoon period once again
leading to more instances of flash flooding.

Impacts from flash flooding could be significant over the next
couple days. Areas facing the greatest threat from flash
flooding will be urban and lower lying areas and areas around
streams and creeks as these are likely to exceed their banks in
spots.

The heaviest of the rain should diminish overnight Monday night
but even into Tuesday there are likely to be some more showers
and storms around even though they are not likely to be as
widespread and intense.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Severe weather remains a threat with showers
and storms later this afternoon through this evening with the
greatest threat existing for areas near the I-78 corridor
southward.

Severe thunderstorm Watch #465 is in effect for South NJ, metro
Philadelphia and Delmarva until 1AM Monday.

The storms discussed above will also have the potential to
produce severe weather into the early overnight period. MLCAPE
values will be less than the previous couple of days given some
cloud cover and weak lapse rates, however, it will still be in
the 1000-1500 J/kg range, especially from Philly southward.
Given modest shear, multi-cell clusters are expected to be the
dominant mode with damaging winds being the primary hazard. The
Storm Prediction Center has the majority of our area in a Slight
Risk (2 of 5) for severe storms. The highest threat for severe
weather looks to be areas near and south of the I-78 corridor
where instability will be the greatest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Sub-VFR conditions expected. Widespread showers and
storms are expected to spread across all terminals between 00Z
and 05Z. Strong winds and visibility restrictions are likely
with this activity. MVFR ceilings to start, with IFR expected
after 08-10Z. Winds generally East to Southeast at 5-10 kt. Low
confidence overall.

Monday...Sub-VFR conditions expected. While there may be a
relative lull in shower and storm activity in the morning,
widespread showers and storms are again expected during the
afternoon and evening hours. IFR ceilings may improve to MVFR by
14-16Z. East-northeast winds at 5-10 kt. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night...Scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms with sub-VFR conditions expected at times.

Tuesday...Still some showers around that could bring sub VFR
conditions.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are anticipated through Monday. East to southeast
winds around 10 kt this afternoon, becoming east to east to northeast
tonight into Monday over northern and central waters. Seas generally
2-3 feet. Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected
beginning this evening and continuing through Monday. Gusty winds,
rough seas, and visibility restrictions are likely in the strongest
storms.

Outlook...

No marine headlines are currently anticipated through midweek, with
winds below 25 kt and seas remaining below 5 ft. However, a stalled
cold front will again be the focus for showers and storms tomorrow
afternoon and evening, with additional isolated showers and storms
also possible on Tuesday. Winds back to the E-NE 5-10 kt north
of the front, remaining E-SE south of the front over far
southern waters through Tuesday.

High pressure builds across New England through midweek, and will
eventually push the stalled boundary south of the area Tuesday night
through Thursday. Winds back to the N-NE behind the front
during this period, with seas also building gradually later
Tuesday through Wednesday, especially north of Barnegat Light,
though again likely remaining below 5 ft.

Rip Currents...

Through Tuesday...Winds remain east to southeast around 10 kt,
with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Resulting increasing NE
wind wave will return an elevated MODERATE Rip Current Risk
along much of the Jersey Shore Monday and Tuesday, with LOW risk
persisting over Cape May/Atlantic Counties and the Delaware
Beaches, where winds remain lighter and more SSE through Tuesday
afternoon.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
NJ...Flood Watch through Monday evening for NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...Flood Watch through Monday evening for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cooper/Fitzsimmons/po
AVIATION...Cooper/Fitzsimmons/po
MARINE...Cooper/Fitzsimmons/

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
508 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-060915-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
508 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Thunderstorms will bring both the threat of flash flooding and severe
weather this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms on Monday could result in areas of flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
802 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Greensboro              38.98N 75.81W
07/05/2026                   Caroline           MD   911 Call Center

            Numerous trees and several powerlines down
            across Greensboro.

&&

CB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
826 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE Wye Mills          38.95N 76.07W
07/05/2026                   Queen Anne's       MD   911 Call Center

            Reports of several trees down near Wye
            Mills. Time estimated from radar.

&&

CB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
835 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Hope                    39.04N 75.97W
07/05/2026                   Queen Anne's       MD   Trained Spotter

            Several large tree branches down on the east
            side of Centreville.

&&

CB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
849 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Smyrna                  39.30N 75.61W
07/05/2026                   Kent               DE   911 Call Center

            Several trees down in Smyrna with a couple
            of them blocking roadways.

&&

CB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
953 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSE Muhlenberg Twp    40.37N 75.93W
07/05/2026                   Berks              PA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Reports of flooded roadways along 5th Street
            near US 222 and PA State Highway 12.

&&

AK