Areal Flood Warning 6, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
238 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation Section for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening
could lead to further instances of flash flooding.

2) High pressure builds in for Wednesday with the chance of showers
and storms returning again for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Additional showers and thunderstorms through
this evening could lead to further instances of flash flooding.

The stalled frontal boundary draped over the area continues to
remain in place. A broad area of low pressure will develop along
this boundary later today and shift east to the south of Long
Island. As this does so, additional shower and thunderstorm
development is expected through the late afternoon hours. In
fact, a remnant outflow boundary from this morning's convection
currently lies over southern New Jersey and into the northern
Delmarva which is the primary focus for additional convection
through the afternoon/evening. As noted previously, the best
convergence and dynamics is now located to our north and east,
so aside for locally heavy rains in the areas mentioned above,
the worst of the significant flash flood risk is now beyond us.

As a result, have opted to maintain the Flood Watch through 8 PM
this evening as several Flash Flood Warnings have been issued
earlier today. With PWATs remaining on the higher side, rainfall
rates in excess of 2 inches per hour will be possible. The
threat for severe weather remains low, however portions of the
Delmarva remain in a MARGINAL risk for severe weather as those
areas remain south of the stalled boundary. Damaging wind gusts
will be the primary hazard in any severe storm.

Otherwise, as we head into tonight, low pressure will continue
to move away, resulting in a gradually diminishing of activity.
Still some residual showers may reside overnight, before
becoming more isolated on Tuesday. Some additional localized
flooding is possible on Tuesday, but overall the threat remains
minimal.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure builds in for Wednesday with the
chance of showers and storms returning again for Thursday and
Friday.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday with seasonable
temperatures and partly to mostly sunny skies expected.

As we head towards the end of the week into next weekend, a new
frontal boundary and associated upper level trough will move in from
the west bringing a return to chances of showers and storms. POPs
increase to 30-40 percent by Thursday and then 40-60 percent by
Friday. It's possible that the front and associated showers/storms
linger for the start of next weekend however forecast confidence is
low by this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
through the rest of the afternoon, resulting in continued
MVFR/IFR ceilings at all terminals. Greater chances for storms
remain near KMIV/KACY, so opted to include VCTS there for rest
of day. Northeast winds around 5-10 kt, locally higher in any
heavier showers or storms. Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight...Any storms will gradually wane after 00Z, however,
residual showers may continue throughout the night. Ceilings are
expected to be prevailing IFR to LIFR through the night. Patchy
areas of fog cannot be ruled out. North-northeast winds around
5-10 kt. Moderate-low confidence overall.

Tuesday...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible. Anticipate MVFR ceilings to prevail through much of
the day. Northeast winds around 5-10 kt. Moderate-high
confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday...Chances for showers return by late
Thursday into Friday and this could result in sub VFR conditions
at times.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through Tuesday. East-
northeast winds around 5-10 kt are expected through tonight.
For Tuesday, north-northeast winds around 10-15 kt with gusts up
to 20 kt possible. Seas generally around 2-4 feet. \

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
through tonight and Tuesday. Any heavier shower or storm may
produce locally higher winds.

Outlook...

No marine headlines are currently anticipated through the rest
of the week.

Rip Currents...

Through Tuesday...Winds remain east to southeast around 10 kt,
with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Resulting increasing NE
wind wave will return an elevated MODERATE Rip Current Risk
along much of the Jersey Shore Monday and Tuesday, with LOW risk
persisting over Cape May/Atlantic Counties and the Delaware
Beaches, where winds remain lighter and more SSE through Tuesday
afternoon.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ054-055-060>062-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
DE...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons
MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
349 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-070915-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
349 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening could
result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1225 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     Flash Flood      1 N Northeast Philadelp 40.11N 75.02W
07/06/2026                   Philadelphia       PA   Emergency Mngr

            SEPTA Trenton service suspended due to water
            over the rails. Time estimated.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1227 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     Flash Flood      1 N Philadelphia        39.96N 75.15W
07/06/2026                   Philadelphia       PA   Emergency Mngr

            Flooding along 8th Street and Fairmount
            Avenue. A vehicle was stuck by the rail
            bridge.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1228 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     Flash Flood      1 SE Ocean Twp.         40.24N 74.04W
07/06/2026                   Monmouth           NJ   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Video sent in of cars stuck in high water on
            Route 35 in Ocean Township.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1242 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     Flash Flood      Eatontown               40.30N 74.06W
07/06/2026                   Monmouth           NJ   Broadcast Media

            Pictures sent in of significant flooding in
            Eatontown. Roads flooded, vehicles half
            submerged and yards underwater.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
112 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     Flash Flood      Lakewood Twp            40.09N 74.22W
07/06/2026                   Ocean              NJ   Newspaper

            Pictures sent in of significant flooding in
            Lakewood with some road closures and
            impassable roadways.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
135 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     Flash Flood      1 ESE Cooperstown       40.04N 74.89W
07/06/2026                   Burlington         NJ   Emergency Mngr

            Flooding along Veterans Parkway and Babbit
            Lane with some flooding around Bradford Lane
            as well. Time estimated.

&&

Hoeflich