Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY
337 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE THE
  NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL PA AND EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH 2 AM
  TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) LOCALIZED FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOCALIZED FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
AND INTERACTING WITH A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE INITIATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES
WITH REPEAT/TRAINING POTENTIAL.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS SHIFTED FROM THE
EASTERN INTO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
(BASED ON THE HREF AND REFS MODEL OUTPUT) WHERE FFGS ARE LOWER
AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES ARE MORE IN-PLAY. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS
ALSO FIRING ALONG ZONES OF CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHERN TIER, SO
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE THAT AREA. WITH CAMS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT, WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE END TIME OF THE WATCH TO 06Z TUE.

THE SEVERE STORM THREAT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS ROBUST AS
IN PRIOR DAYS (54 SVR+TOR WARNINGS IN THE PAST 3 DAYS). THIS IS
REFLECTED IN MOST OF THE AREA IN A GENERAL OR NON-SEVERE TSTM
OUTLOOK AND ONLY LEVEL 1/5 MRGL RISK COVERING THE SOUTHWEST
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE HIGHER CAPE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
BE MAXIMIZED.

THE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK CAN BE SUMMARIZED MORE OR
LESS BY TYPICAL EARLY JULY UNSETTLED/HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS
WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES, THOUGH JST AND AOO LIKELY
SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON,
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL, LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AS THEY MOVE OVER ANY
AIRFIELDS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG APPEARS LIKELY
FOR MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

Outlook...

TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN A.M. FOG AND P.M. T-STORMS.
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE, THEN MOSTLY DRY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA/TSRA THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS,
MOST WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY. SAT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Colbert/Bauco

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
207 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-057>059-066-
071815-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster-
207 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ017-024>028-033>036-056-063>065-071815-
Clearfield-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-
Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Cumberland-Adams-York-
207 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Isolated to widely scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible
with the strongest storms this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Colbert

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
539 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     Flash Flood      Kane                    41.66N 78.81W
07/06/2026                   McKean             PA   911 Call Center

            Two reports of flooded basements.

&&

MMD

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
631 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     Flash Flood      Kane                    41.66N 78.81W
07/06/2026                   McKean             PA   911 Call Center

            Several roads are flooded, and numerous
            homes have flooded basements.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>