Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
806 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Targeted Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook (level 3/4)
  for east-central Pennsylvania through tonight
* Flood Watch issued this afternoon through Monday for east-
  central Pennsylvania

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Breakdown of heat wave pattern gives rise to
severe storms and torrential downpours today and tonight; flood
risk lingering in the east on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Breakdown of heat wave pattern gives rise to
severe storms and torrential downpours today and tonight; flood
risk lingering in the east on Monday.

40 severe thunderstorm warnings issued in the past 2 days. The
days following a transition from an extreme heat pattern are
often marked by severe/active weather, and that trend continues
through at least Monday. As the heat dome shifts to the west and
troughing develops over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast, the
upcoming week will feature relatively cooler (more seasonal)
temperatures with a bullish signal for almost daily rain chances
particularly early and late in the week.

Another active wx day ahead with dual severe T-storm and flash
flood risks. We anticipate another diurnal uptick in convective
development within a very warm, moist and increasingly unstable
environment indicative of steep low-mid level lapse rates.
Pockets of stronger deep layer shear 30+ kt may exist in the
upper OH Valley and eastern PA, but the general expectation is
for pulse to multicell storms to once again merge/form into line
segments with some cold pool organization to promote damaging
wind potential from mid afternoon into the evening. Terrain
boundaries will also play an important role in initiating/organizing
convection given lack of other strong forcing. SPC placed the
highest damaging wind probs near/southeast of I81/78 where max
temps should reach 90F.

Focus will evolve from severe to flash flood/hydro ops by later
this evening and continue into Monday as a robust +RA signal
continues to manifest over east-central PA. Atmos conditions
will be quite favorable for heavy rainfall and flash flooding
potential with 2+ inch pwats correlating to intense rain rates
>2 in/hr. Still some question on degree of repeating/back-
building storms along q-stnry/wavy frontal zone. Latest
HREF/REFS mean QPF guidance is signaling 1-3" in the 24hr period
ending 00Z Tue with PMM/LPMM max values exceeding 5 inches. WPC
coordinated a targeted and relatively small moderate excessive
rainfall outlook (level 3/4) within a broader level 2/4 or SLGT
risk area. We issued a relatively large/broad flood watch along
with WFO PHI as there remains some spatial uncertainty to
exactly where the greatest rainfall will occur. The setup
(multiple rounds of slow moving/torrential downpours) favors
locally significant flash flooding particularly in terrain areas
and highly urbanized corridors. One limiting factor is
obviously the drought conditions and corresponding elevated FFG
values that may offset the overall risk to some extent.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Convection generally confined to the eastern half of
Pennsylvania to begin the forecast. Tried to time the arrival of
the main areas but there will be additional -TSRA through
midnight over the eastern airfields.

The remainder of the night will see MVFR to IFR with lingering
light rain. Dewpoints near 70 combined with earlier rainfall
will result in patchy BR/FG. Confidence of LIFR in FG is around
40% in any one location.

Precipitation returns during the afternoon Monday with isolated
TSRA through the remainder of the forecast period. Expect MVFR
to IFR during this time.

Outlook...

Tue...Restrictions possible in A.M. fog and P.M. T-storms. Wed-
Fri...Restrictions possible in showers/storms, most widespread
on Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Rare Heat at Harrisburg: 3 consecutive days with maxT >= 100F
from July 2-4, 2026. The last time this streak occurred was
July 1999 (2x) and is only the 6th time on record going back to
1888.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday evening for PAZ017>019-024>028-
033>036-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Tyburski
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
646 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

PAZ025>028-034>036-056>059-063>066-062300-
Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
646 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered wind damage is also possible with strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ017>019-024-033-042-045-046-049>053-062300-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Somerset-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
646 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Scattered wind damage is also possible with strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-062300-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-
646 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated wind damage is possible with strong to severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Heavy rain may make isolated minor
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Heavy rain from thunderstorms may also cause flooding on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Beaty

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
650 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Prince Gallitzin St 40.70N 78.57W
07/05/2026                   Cambria            PA   Utility Company

            Trees down on wires along Kibler Lake Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
733 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     Flash Flood      2 ENE Port Royal        40.54N 77.36W
07/05/2026                   Juniata            PA   Public

            Water flowing across a stretch of old Route
            22 in Walker Township.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
842 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     Flash Flood      Hummelstown             40.27N 76.71W
07/05/2026                   Dauphin            PA   911 Call Center

            Numerous cars underwater in Hummelstown near
            Swatara Creek. Many reports of 3.5-4.0
            inches of rain in 45 minutes. Water rescues
            in progress.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
849 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     Flash Flood      1 WNW Hershey           40.29N 76.67W
07/05/2026                   Dauphin            PA   911 Call Center

            Water rescues underway on Hersheypark Drive
            near the Giant Center.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
901 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Flash Flood      Hummelstown             40.27N 76.71W
07/05/2026                   Dauphin            PA   NWS Employee

            Flooded underpass beneath a railroad
            crossing in Hummelstown.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
904 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

PAZ012-018-019-060145-
Northern Centre PA-Northern Clinton PA-Southern Centre PA-
904 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CENTRE AND WEST CENTRAL
CLINTON COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

At 904 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bellefonte, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bellefonte, Milesburg, Snow Shoe, Clarence, Moshannon, Monument,
Unionville, and Orviston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4090 7773 4090 7798 4118 7803 4117 7767
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 182DEG 12KT 4098 7786

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Dangelo