Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Gaylord, MI

524 
WWUS53 KAPX 011807
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
207 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MIC129-011817-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-260701T1845Z/
Ogemaw MI-
207 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN OGEMAW COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for
northern Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4396 8449 4404 8433 4412 8425 4416 8416
      4416 8398 4411 8361 4400 8372 4400 8374
      4398 8377 4400 8383 4391 8391 4391 8404
      4400 8405 4400 8417 4383 8416 4383 8436
      4381 8437 4382 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 283DEG 26KT 4409 8422 

$$

MIC011-051-011845-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-260701T1845Z/
Arenac MI-Gladwin MI-
207 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR ARENAC AND EASTERN GLADWIN COUNTIES...

At 207 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Alger, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Alger and Sterling around 210 PM EDT.
  Standish around 220 PM EDT.
  Maple Ridge and Omer around 225 PM EDT.
  Twining around 235 PM EDT.
  Au Gres around 245 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4396 8449 4404 8433 4412 8425 4416 8416
      4416 8398 4411 8361 4400 8372 4400 8374
      4398 8377 4400 8383 4391 8391 4391 8404
      4400 8405 4400 8417 4383 8416 4383 8436
      4381 8437 4382 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 283DEG 26KT 4409 8422 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

ELD

957 
WWUS53 KAPX 011821
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
221 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MIC051-011831-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-260701T1845Z/
Gladwin MI-
221 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN GLADWIN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for
northern Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4391 8404 4400 8405 4400 8417 4413 8417
      4416 8416 4416 8398 4411 8361 4400 8372
      4400 8374 4398 8377 4400 8383 4391 8391
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 283DEG 26KT 4407 8408 

$$

MIC011-011845-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-260701T1845Z/
Arenac MI-
221 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR ARENAC COUNTY...

At 221 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Alger, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Standish, Sterling, Maple Ridge, and Omer around 225 PM EDT.
  Twining around 235 PM EDT.
  Au Gres around 245 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4391 8404 4400 8405 4400 8417 4413 8417
      4416 8416 4416 8398 4411 8361 4400 8372
      4400 8374 4398 8377 4400 8383 4391 8391
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 283DEG 26KT 4407 8408 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

ELD

473 
WWUS53 KAPX 011831
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
231 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MIC011-011845-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-260701T1845Z/
Arenac MI-
231 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL ARENAC COUNTY...

At 231 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Sterling,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Standish, Omer, and Twining around 235 PM EDT.
  Au Gres around 245 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4391 8404 4400 8405 4406 8402 4409 8394
      4412 8381 4411 8361 4400 8372 4400 8374
      4398 8377 4400 8383 4391 8391
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 283DEG 26KT 4405 8398 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

ELD

142 
WWUS53 KAPX 011836
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
236 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MIC011-011846-
/O.EXP.KAPX.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-260701T1845Z/
Arenac MI-
236 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ARENAC COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 245 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for
northern Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4391 8404 4400 8405 4406 8402 4409 8394
      4412 8381 4411 8361 4400 8372 4400 8374
      4398 8377 4400 8383 4391 8391
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 283DEG 26KT 4405 8397 

$$

ELD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
Issued by National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac
103 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity continue through the end of the week.

- Remaining active today through Friday with multiple rounds of
  thunderstorms. Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall
  possible.

- Still warm, but not nearly as humid this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Long story short, heat and humidity continues through the end of the
week with low predictability in thunderstorm chances.

Hot and humid conditions persist today through the end of the week,
peaking today through Thursday. Temperatures rise into the upper 80s
to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, fostering heat
indices in the mid 90s to low 100s at least, locally higher. As
such, heat advisory will stay put. If we remain clear, high
temperatures may eclipse yesterday and heat indices will likely be
well above 100F, dangerous for those without adequate heating and
vulnerable populations/pets. Temperatures and heat indices will not
be quite as high on Thursday, but high heat stress will remain given
little relief over the last several days.

Thunderstorm forecasting the past several days has been exhausting
and incredibly difficult. No different today with a hot and humid
airmass in place, fostering moderate to strong sfc based
instability. Previous runs of the convective allowing models did
show the potential for a very strong line of thunderstorms during
the morning to midday hours, but given the lack of development
across WI at this time, seems hard to see that coming to fruition,
at least in the way/time that was previously thought. Based on the
RAP progged fields, it does appear a convectively charged feature
out of MN moves northeast within the southwest flow aloft,
potentially aiding in some thunderstorm development mid afternoon
into the evening. Not entirely confident on this potential overall,
but there is a signal at least for the 4-6PM start time for strong
to severe thunderstorm development, damaging winds and hail the main
threats. Additional energy and thunderstorm complex inertia will
make a run at northern MI tonight, and much like this past night,
there is a chance for the activity to lose steam to some degree.
That being said, tonight will feature the best chance for
thunderstorm coverage. Any storm has the potential for heavy rain
(strong instability and anomalous moisture), strong winds, and hail.

More or less a rinse and repeat on Thursday, with the evening and
overnight the best potential for thunderstorms, a few strong. SPC's
outlook has much of the region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe thunderstorms, with a small sliver of a Slight Risk (level 2
of 5) near Manistee and vicinity, which is fair given the focus of
convection being a little farther south. Rich moisture remains in
place, so locally heavy rain on the table once again, along with the
typical wind threat.

Better, more defined forcing arrives late week (although the exact
positioning of the short wave/upper low is in question), and thus a
more confident forecast in regards to thunderstorm coverage. There
is at least a signal for areas of heavy rain showing up within the
deterministic suite, but that will depend on the timing and
longevity of the thunderstorms that will likely develop to our west.
One would imagine strong winds would be the hazard, especially if an
MCS moves in from the west. Moderate shear would also suggest hail
is not impossible.

By this weekend, energy within the somewhat more zonal flow will
keep the unsettled conditions around. That being said, temperatures
will decrease with 80s most locations, with less humidity. High
pressure develops over the Desert Southwest next week, looks like
the monsoon convection is in full swing. Over northern Michigan, it
remains warm as heights will be above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Except for APN, the late morning/early afternoon thunderstorm
complex has moved east of the terminals as of the 18Z forecast
issuance. The strongest part of round 2 is on a farther south track
from WI into northern Lower Mi where greater instability is
available. Assuming it holds together, it tracks near MBL while
spreading a borderline MVFR/VFR stratiform rain or rumble of thunder
toward TVC but mainly south of PLN through mid afternoon.

A break of VFR is expected from late afternoon through the evening
while monitoring potential for additional storms later tonight. A
new round of development is expected along the nearly stalled cold
front in the upper Midwest. Some of these are projected to survive
eastward into the eastern U.P. and northern Lower Mi late tonight
into Thursday morning. Timing and intensity details are better added
in later updates as trends solidify.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ016>018-020>036-
     041-042-097>099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ323-344-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ341-
     342.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ346.

&&

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION... BT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
116 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Hubbard Lake            44.80N 83.59W
07/01/2026                   Alcona             MI   Law Enforcement

            Trees and power lines down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
130 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE South Branch      44.48N 83.85W
07/01/2026                   Iosco              MI   Law Enforcement

            Power lines down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
132 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Cedar                   44.85N 85.79W
07/01/2026                   Leelanau           MI   NWS Employee

            Tree snapped and fell onto a car parked on
            the street. Time estimated by radar.

&&

HAD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
141 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NE Bingham            44.88N 85.68W
07/01/2026  M49 MPH          Leelanau           MI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station MINWM 0.8 NE Bingham (MAWN).

1130 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 4 SW Leland             44.98N 85.83W
07/01/2026  M43 MPH          LMZ344             MI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 45183 3 WSW Leland.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
145 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1207 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Darragh            44.79N 85.01W
07/01/2026                   Kalkaska           MI   Public

            Reports of several trees and tree limbs
            downed in the Manistee Lake (Kalkaska
            County) area. Power outages reported. Time
            estimated by radar.

&&

HAD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
148 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1154 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Alden                   44.88N 85.27W
07/01/2026                   Antrim             MI   NWS Employee

            Report of a 12 inch diameter tree limb
            downed near Alden. Time estimated by radar.

&&

HAD