Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Gaylord, MI

014 
WWUS53 KAPX 011537
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1137 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MIC019-101-011600-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-260701T1600Z/
Benzie MI-Manistee MI-
1137 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN BENZIE AND MANISTEE COUNTIES...

At 1137 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Eastlake, or
near Manistee, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Onekama and Norwalk around 1140 AM EDT.
  Brethren around 1145 AM EDT.
  Kaleva and Wellston around 1150 AM EDT.
  Dublin around 1155 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Star
Crossing and Pere Marquette State Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

If on the water, get away from the water and move indoors or inside 
a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 15 miles from the 
parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough 
to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now!  Do not be 
caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4425 8634 4426 8636 4429 8637 4436 8631
      4453 8628 4456 8600 4421 8582 4417 8596
      4418 8636 4419 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 1537Z 260DEG 36KT 4425 8625 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Cornish

275 
WWUS53 KAPX 011550
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1150 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MIC019-011559-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-260701T1600Z/
Benzie MI-
1150 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN BENZIE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for
northern Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4426 8629 4429 8625 4437 8621 4440 8592
      4434 8589 4422 8582 4420 8585 4417 8596
      4418 8623 4421 8626
TIME...MOT...LOC 1549Z 265DEG 38KT 4426 8609 

$$

MIC101-011600-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-260701T1600Z/
Manistee MI-
1150 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FOR
SOUTHERN MANISTEE COUNTY...

At 1149 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brethren, or
11 miles east of Manistee, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Kaleva, Dublin, Wellston, and Brethren around 1155 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Star
Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

If on the water, get away from the water and move indoors or inside 
a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 15 miles from the 
parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough 
to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now!  Do not be 
caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4426 8629 4429 8625 4437 8621 4440 8592
      4434 8589 4422 8582 4420 8585 4417 8596
      4418 8623 4421 8626
TIME...MOT...LOC 1549Z 265DEG 38KT 4426 8609 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Cornish

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
515 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity continues through the end of the week.

- Remaining active today through Friday with multiple rounds of
  thunderstorms. Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall
  possible.

- Still warm, but not nearly as humid this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Long story short, heat and humidity continues through the end of the
week with low predictability in thunderstorm chances.

Hot and humid conditions persist today through the end of the week,
peaking today through Thursday. Temperatures rise into the upper 80s
to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, fostering heat
indices in the mid 90s to low 100s at least, locally higher. As
such, heat advisory will stay put. If we remain clear, high
temperatures may eclipse yesterday and heat indices will likely be
well above 100F, dangerous for those without adequate heating and
vulnerable populations/pets. Temperatures and heat indices will not
be quite as high on Thursday, but high heat stress will remain given
little relief over the last several days.

Thunderstorm forecasting the past several days has been exhausting
and incredibly difficult. No different today with a hot and humid
airmass in place, fostering moderate to strong sfc based
instability. Previous runs of the convective allowing models did
show the potential for a very strong line of thunderstorms during
the morning to midday hours, but given the lack of development
across WI at this time, seems hard to see that coming to fruition,
at least in the way/time that was previously thought. Based on the
RAP progged fields, it does appear a convectively charged feature
out of MN moves northeast within the southwest flow aloft,
potentially aiding in some thunderstorm development mid afternoon
into the evening. Not entirely confident on this potential overall,
but there is a signal at least for the 4-6PM start time for strong
to severe thunderstorm development, damaging winds and hail the main
threats. Additional energy and thunderstorm complex inertia will
make a run at northern MI tonight, and much like this past night,
there is a chance for the activity to lose steam to some degree.
That being said, tonight will feature the best chance for
thunderstorm coverage. Any storm has the potential for heavy rain
(strong instability and anomalous moisture), strong winds, and hail.

More or less a rinse and repeat on Thursday, with the evening and
overnight the best potential for thunderstorms, a few strong. SPC's
outlook has much of the region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe thunderstorms, with a small sliver of a Slight Risk (level 2
of 5) near Manistee and vicinity, which is fair given the focus of
convection being a little farther south. Rich moisture remains in
place, so locally heavy rain on the table once again, along with the
typical wind threat.

Better, more defined forcing arrives late week (although the exact
positioning of the short wave/upper low is in question), and thus a
more confident forecast in regards to thunderstorm coverage. There
is at least a signal for areas of heavy rain showing up within the
deterministic suite, but that will depend on the timing and
longevity of the thunderstorms that will likely develop to our west.
One would imagine strong winds would be the hazard, especially if an
MCS moves in from the west. Moderate shear would also suggest hail
is not impossible.

By this weekend, energy within the somewhat more zonal flow will
keep the unsettled conditions around. That being said, temperatures
will decrease with 80s most locations, with less humidity. High
pressure develops over the Desert Southwest next week, looks like
the monsoon convection is in full swing. Over northern Michigan, it
remains warm as heights will be above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Wouldn't be surprised to see some MVFR producing stratus develop
after sunrise, with any low clouds quickly mixing out through the
morning. Very low confidence forecast for the rest of the period
owning to increasing uncertainty in thunderstorm evolution,
organization, and timing. Tentatively appears best shot for most
widespread activity holds off until later tonight. Will continue
to run with VFR wording for now, unfortunately waiting for
convective evolution for more specific impacts on the taf
locations. Any storms that do develop could become locally
severe, with gusty winds and very heavy rainfall. As previous
forecaster mentioned, there definitely is potential for rapidly
changing conditions and flight categories through the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ016>018-020>036-
     041-042-097>099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ323-344-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ341-
     342.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ346.

&&

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...MSB