Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Gaylord, MI

270 
WWUS53 KAPX 011526
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1126 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MIC019-055-089-011545-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-260701T1545Z/
Leelanau MI-Benzie MI-Grand Traverse MI-
1126 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM EDT
FOR LEELANAU...BENZIE AND GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES...

At 1126 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Leland to near Karlin, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Traverse City, Bingham, Kingsley, Suttons Bay, Hannah, Grawn, 
  Traverse City State Park, Greilickville, Peshawbestown, and Omena 
  around 1130 AM EDT.
  Spider Lake and Old Mission around 1135 AM EDT.
  Elk Rapids and Williamsburg around 1140 AM EDT.
  Fife Lake around 1145 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Wallin, Good Harbor, Blaine Township, and Bates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

If on the water, get away from the water and move indoors or inside 
a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 15 miles from the 
parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough 
to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now!  Do not be 
caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4478 8613 4486 8612 4500 8595 4498 8584
      4508 8578 4524 8552 4517 8548 4501 8555
      4501 8543 4510 8541 4499 8538 4489 8542
      4481 8533 4451 8533 4453 8623 4450 8629
      4470 8630
TIME...MOT...LOC 1526Z 263DEG 38KT 4503 8570 4454 8574 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Cornish

532 
WWUS53 KAPX 011534
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1134 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MIC019-055-089-011545-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-260701T1545Z/
Leelanau MI-Benzie MI-Grand Traverse MI-
1134 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM EDT
FOR LEELANAU...BENZIE AND GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES...

At 1134 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Peshawbestown to near Buckley, moving east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Traverse City, Kingsley, Hannah, Spider Lake, Traverse City State 
  Park, Old Mission, and Mapleton around 1140 AM EDT.
  Elk Rapids and Williamsburg around 1145 AM EDT.
  Fife Lake around 1150 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Wallin, Good Harbor, Blaine Township, and Bates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

If on the water, get away from the water and move indoors or inside 
a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 15 miles from the 
parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough 
to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now!  Do not be 
caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4478 8613 4487 8611 4500 8595 4498 8584
      4508 8578 4524 8552 4517 8548 4501 8555
      4501 8543 4509 8541 4498 8538 4489 8542
      4481 8533 4451 8533 4453 8618 4451 8629
      4470 8630
TIME...MOT...LOC 1534Z 269DEG 37KT 4504 8565 4454 8567 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Cornish

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
515 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity continues through the end of the week.

- Remaining active today through Friday with multiple rounds of
  thunderstorms. Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall
  possible.

- Still warm, but not nearly as humid this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Long story short, heat and humidity continues through the end of the
week with low predictability in thunderstorm chances.

Hot and humid conditions persist today through the end of the week,
peaking today through Thursday. Temperatures rise into the upper 80s
to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, fostering heat
indices in the mid 90s to low 100s at least, locally higher. As
such, heat advisory will stay put. If we remain clear, high
temperatures may eclipse yesterday and heat indices will likely be
well above 100F, dangerous for those without adequate heating and
vulnerable populations/pets. Temperatures and heat indices will not
be quite as high on Thursday, but high heat stress will remain given
little relief over the last several days.

Thunderstorm forecasting the past several days has been exhausting
and incredibly difficult. No different today with a hot and humid
airmass in place, fostering moderate to strong sfc based
instability. Previous runs of the convective allowing models did
show the potential for a very strong line of thunderstorms during
the morning to midday hours, but given the lack of development
across WI at this time, seems hard to see that coming to fruition,
at least in the way/time that was previously thought. Based on the
RAP progged fields, it does appear a convectively charged feature
out of MN moves northeast within the southwest flow aloft,
potentially aiding in some thunderstorm development mid afternoon
into the evening. Not entirely confident on this potential overall,
but there is a signal at least for the 4-6PM start time for strong
to severe thunderstorm development, damaging winds and hail the main
threats. Additional energy and thunderstorm complex inertia will
make a run at northern MI tonight, and much like this past night,
there is a chance for the activity to lose steam to some degree.
That being said, tonight will feature the best chance for
thunderstorm coverage. Any storm has the potential for heavy rain
(strong instability and anomalous moisture), strong winds, and hail.

More or less a rinse and repeat on Thursday, with the evening and
overnight the best potential for thunderstorms, a few strong. SPC's
outlook has much of the region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe thunderstorms, with a small sliver of a Slight Risk (level 2
of 5) near Manistee and vicinity, which is fair given the focus of
convection being a little farther south. Rich moisture remains in
place, so locally heavy rain on the table once again, along with the
typical wind threat.

Better, more defined forcing arrives late week (although the exact
positioning of the short wave/upper low is in question), and thus a
more confident forecast in regards to thunderstorm coverage. There
is at least a signal for areas of heavy rain showing up within the
deterministic suite, but that will depend on the timing and
longevity of the thunderstorms that will likely develop to our west.
One would imagine strong winds would be the hazard, especially if an
MCS moves in from the west. Moderate shear would also suggest hail
is not impossible.

By this weekend, energy within the somewhat more zonal flow will
keep the unsettled conditions around. That being said, temperatures
will decrease with 80s most locations, with less humidity. High
pressure develops over the Desert Southwest next week, looks like
the monsoon convection is in full swing. Over northern Michigan, it
remains warm as heights will be above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Wouldn't be surprised to see some MVFR producing stratus develop
after sunrise, with any low clouds quickly mixing out through the
morning. Very low confidence forecast for the rest of the period
owning to increasing uncertainty in thunderstorm evolution,
organization, and timing. Tentatively appears best shot for most
widespread activity holds off until later tonight. Will continue
to run with VFR wording for now, unfortunately waiting for
convective evolution for more specific impacts on the taf
locations. Any storms that do develop could become locally
severe, with gusty winds and very heavy rainfall. As previous
forecaster mentioned, there definitely is potential for rapidly
changing conditions and flight categories through the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ016>018-020>036-
     041-042-097>099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ323-344-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ341-
     342.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ346.

&&

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...MSB