Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Gaylord, MI

853 
WWUS53 KAPX 011754
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
154 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MIC001-011-069-129-011830-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-260701T1830Z/
Alcona MI-Arenac MI-Ogemaw MI-Iosco MI-
154 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALCONA...ARENAC...SOUTHEASTERN OGEMAW AND IOSCO
COUNTIES...

At 154 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Oscoda to near Whittemore, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Oscoda, East Tawas, Tawas City, Au Sable, Tawas Point State Park, 
  and National City around 200 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Prescott, Wilber, and Sid Town.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4434 8328 4422 8343 4422 8349 4418 8351
      4418 8356 4406 8359 4405 8366 4399 8370
      4400 8374 4398 8379 4400 8383 4397 8386
      4397 8401 4425 8420 4437 8390 4455 8367
      4452 8327
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 279DEG 47KT 4445 8324 4424 8385 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

ELD

582 
WWUS53 KAPX 011804
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
204 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MIC001-011814-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-260701T1830Z/
Alcona MI-
204 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALCONA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for
northern Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4434 8328 4422 8343 4422 8349 4418 8351
      4418 8356 4406 8359 4405 8366 4399 8370
      4400 8374 4398 8379 4400 8383 4397 8386
      4397 8401 4415 8413 4425 8385 4452 8328
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 279DEG 47KT 4443 8308 4422 8369 

$$

MIC011-069-129-011830-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-260701T1830Z/
Arenac MI-Ogemaw MI-Iosco MI-
204 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT
FOR ARENAC...SOUTHEASTERN OGEMAW AND SOUTHEASTERN IOSCO COUNTIES...

At 204 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 12 miles east of Oscoda to National City, moving east
at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  East Tawas, Tawas City, and Tawas Point State Park around 210 PM 
  EDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Prescott and Wilber.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4434 8328 4422 8343 4422 8349 4418 8351
      4418 8356 4406 8359 4405 8366 4399 8370
      4400 8374 4398 8379 4400 8383 4397 8386
      4397 8401 4415 8413 4425 8385 4452 8328
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 279DEG 47KT 4443 8308 4422 8369 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

ELD

535 
WWUS53 KAPX 011818
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
218 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MIC069-129-011827-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-260701T1830Z/
Ogemaw MI-Iosco MI-
218 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OGEMAW AND
SOUTHEASTERN IOSCO COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for
northern Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4412 8408 4417 8390 4416 8357 4406 8359
      4405 8366 4399 8370 4400 8374 4398 8379
      4400 8383 4397 8386 4397 8401
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 279DEG 47KT 4441 8292 4420 8353 

$$

MIC011-011830-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-260701T1830Z/
Arenac MI-
218 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT
FOR ARENAC COUNTY...

At 217 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 20 miles east of Oscoda to near Tawas City, moving
east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
Arenac County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4412 8408 4417 8390 4416 8357 4406 8359
      4405 8366 4399 8370 4400 8374 4398 8379
      4400 8383 4397 8386 4397 8401
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 279DEG 47KT 4441 8292 4420 8353 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

ELD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
Issued by National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac
103 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity continue through the end of the week.

- Remaining active today through Friday with multiple rounds of
  thunderstorms. Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall
  possible.

- Still warm, but not nearly as humid this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Long story short, heat and humidity continues through the end of the
week with low predictability in thunderstorm chances.

Hot and humid conditions persist today through the end of the week,
peaking today through Thursday. Temperatures rise into the upper 80s
to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, fostering heat
indices in the mid 90s to low 100s at least, locally higher. As
such, heat advisory will stay put. If we remain clear, high
temperatures may eclipse yesterday and heat indices will likely be
well above 100F, dangerous for those without adequate heating and
vulnerable populations/pets. Temperatures and heat indices will not
be quite as high on Thursday, but high heat stress will remain given
little relief over the last several days.

Thunderstorm forecasting the past several days has been exhausting
and incredibly difficult. No different today with a hot and humid
airmass in place, fostering moderate to strong sfc based
instability. Previous runs of the convective allowing models did
show the potential for a very strong line of thunderstorms during
the morning to midday hours, but given the lack of development
across WI at this time, seems hard to see that coming to fruition,
at least in the way/time that was previously thought. Based on the
RAP progged fields, it does appear a convectively charged feature
out of MN moves northeast within the southwest flow aloft,
potentially aiding in some thunderstorm development mid afternoon
into the evening. Not entirely confident on this potential overall,
but there is a signal at least for the 4-6PM start time for strong
to severe thunderstorm development, damaging winds and hail the main
threats. Additional energy and thunderstorm complex inertia will
make a run at northern MI tonight, and much like this past night,
there is a chance for the activity to lose steam to some degree.
That being said, tonight will feature the best chance for
thunderstorm coverage. Any storm has the potential for heavy rain
(strong instability and anomalous moisture), strong winds, and hail.

More or less a rinse and repeat on Thursday, with the evening and
overnight the best potential for thunderstorms, a few strong. SPC's
outlook has much of the region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe thunderstorms, with a small sliver of a Slight Risk (level 2
of 5) near Manistee and vicinity, which is fair given the focus of
convection being a little farther south. Rich moisture remains in
place, so locally heavy rain on the table once again, along with the
typical wind threat.

Better, more defined forcing arrives late week (although the exact
positioning of the short wave/upper low is in question), and thus a
more confident forecast in regards to thunderstorm coverage. There
is at least a signal for areas of heavy rain showing up within the
deterministic suite, but that will depend on the timing and
longevity of the thunderstorms that will likely develop to our west.
One would imagine strong winds would be the hazard, especially if an
MCS moves in from the west. Moderate shear would also suggest hail
is not impossible.

By this weekend, energy within the somewhat more zonal flow will
keep the unsettled conditions around. That being said, temperatures
will decrease with 80s most locations, with less humidity. High
pressure develops over the Desert Southwest next week, looks like
the monsoon convection is in full swing. Over northern Michigan, it
remains warm as heights will be above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Except for APN, the late morning/early afternoon thunderstorm
complex has moved east of the terminals as of the 18Z forecast
issuance. The strongest part of round 2 is on a farther south track
from WI into northern Lower Mi where greater instability is
available. Assuming it holds together, it tracks near MBL while
spreading a borderline MVFR/VFR stratiform rain or rumble of thunder
toward TVC but mainly south of PLN through mid afternoon.

A break of VFR is expected from late afternoon through the evening
while monitoring potential for additional storms later tonight. A
new round of development is expected along the nearly stalled cold
front in the upper Midwest. Some of these are projected to survive
eastward into the eastern U.P. and northern Lower Mi late tonight
into Thursday morning. Timing and intensity details are better added
in later updates as trends solidify.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ016>018-020>036-
     041-042-097>099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ323-344-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ341-
     342.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ346.

&&

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION... BT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1259 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Elk Rapids        44.90N 85.42W
07/01/2026                   Antrim             MI   Public

            Trees down. Time estimated.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
105 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NW Boyne City         45.21N 85.01W
07/01/2026                   Charlevoix         MI   Public

            Trees down in and around Boyne City.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
110 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mancelona               44.90N 85.07W
07/01/2026                   Antrim             MI   Emergency Mngr

            Lots of downed trees and power outages
            across Antrim County. Initial reports
            suggest worst damage between Torch Lake and
            Mancelona. Time estimated.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
116 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Hubbard Lake            44.80N 83.59W
07/01/2026                   Alcona             MI   Law Enforcement

            Trees and power lines down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
130 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE South Branch      44.48N 83.85W
07/01/2026                   Iosco              MI   Law Enforcement

            Power lines down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
132 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Cedar                   44.85N 85.79W
07/01/2026                   Leelanau           MI   NWS Employee

            Tree snapped and fell onto a car parked on
            the street. Time estimated by radar.

&&

HAD