Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
Issued by National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac
103 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity continue through the end of the week.

- Remaining active today through Friday with multiple rounds of
  thunderstorms. Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall
  possible.

- Still warm, but not nearly as humid this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Long story short, heat and humidity continues through the end of the
week with low predictability in thunderstorm chances.

Hot and humid conditions persist today through the end of the week,
peaking today through Thursday. Temperatures rise into the upper 80s
to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, fostering heat
indices in the mid 90s to low 100s at least, locally higher. As
such, heat advisory will stay put. If we remain clear, high
temperatures may eclipse yesterday and heat indices will likely be
well above 100F, dangerous for those without adequate heating and
vulnerable populations/pets. Temperatures and heat indices will not
be quite as high on Thursday, but high heat stress will remain given
little relief over the last several days.

Thunderstorm forecasting the past several days has been exhausting
and incredibly difficult. No different today with a hot and humid
airmass in place, fostering moderate to strong sfc based
instability. Previous runs of the convective allowing models did
show the potential for a very strong line of thunderstorms during
the morning to midday hours, but given the lack of development
across WI at this time, seems hard to see that coming to fruition,
at least in the way/time that was previously thought. Based on the
RAP progged fields, it does appear a convectively charged feature
out of MN moves northeast within the southwest flow aloft,
potentially aiding in some thunderstorm development mid afternoon
into the evening. Not entirely confident on this potential overall,
but there is a signal at least for the 4-6PM start time for strong
to severe thunderstorm development, damaging winds and hail the main
threats. Additional energy and thunderstorm complex inertia will
make a run at northern MI tonight, and much like this past night,
there is a chance for the activity to lose steam to some degree.
That being said, tonight will feature the best chance for
thunderstorm coverage. Any storm has the potential for heavy rain
(strong instability and anomalous moisture), strong winds, and hail.

More or less a rinse and repeat on Thursday, with the evening and
overnight the best potential for thunderstorms, a few strong. SPC's
outlook has much of the region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe thunderstorms, with a small sliver of a Slight Risk (level 2
of 5) near Manistee and vicinity, which is fair given the focus of
convection being a little farther south. Rich moisture remains in
place, so locally heavy rain on the table once again, along with the
typical wind threat.

Better, more defined forcing arrives late week (although the exact
positioning of the short wave/upper low is in question), and thus a
more confident forecast in regards to thunderstorm coverage. There
is at least a signal for areas of heavy rain showing up within the
deterministic suite, but that will depend on the timing and
longevity of the thunderstorms that will likely develop to our west.
One would imagine strong winds would be the hazard, especially if an
MCS moves in from the west. Moderate shear would also suggest hail
is not impossible.

By this weekend, energy within the somewhat more zonal flow will
keep the unsettled conditions around. That being said, temperatures
will decrease with 80s most locations, with less humidity. High
pressure develops over the Desert Southwest next week, looks like
the monsoon convection is in full swing. Over northern Michigan, it
remains warm as heights will be above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Except for APN, the late morning/early afternoon thunderstorm
complex has moved east of the terminals as of the 18Z forecast
issuance. The strongest part of round 2 is on a farther south track
from WI into northern Lower Mi where greater instability is
available. Assuming it holds together, it tracks near MBL while
spreading a borderline MVFR/VFR stratiform rain or rumble of thunder
toward TVC but mainly south of PLN through mid afternoon.

A break of VFR is expected from late afternoon through the evening
while monitoring potential for additional storms later tonight. A
new round of development is expected along the nearly stalled cold
front in the upper Midwest. Some of these are projected to survive
eastward into the eastern U.P. and northern Lower Mi late tonight
into Thursday morning. Timing and intensity details are better added
in later updates as trends solidify.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ016>018-020>036-
     041-042-097>099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ323-344-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ341-
     342.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ346.

&&

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION... BT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1249 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Sparr               45.04N 84.58W
07/01/2026                   Otsego             MI   Law Enforcement

            Trees down at Sparr Rd. and Marquardt Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1250 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WSW Gaylord           45.03N 84.70W
07/01/2026  E60 MPH          Otsego             MI   Amateur Radio

            Estimated gust of 60-70 mph.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1259 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Elk Rapids        44.90N 85.42W
07/01/2026                   Antrim             MI   Public

            Trees down. Time estimated.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
105 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NW Boyne City         45.21N 85.01W
07/01/2026                   Charlevoix         MI   Public

            Trees down in and around Boyne City.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
110 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mancelona               44.90N 85.07W
07/01/2026                   Antrim             MI   Emergency Mngr

            Lots of downed trees and power outages
            across Antrim County. Initial reports
            suggest worst damage between Torch Lake and
            Mancelona. Time estimated.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
116 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Hubbard Lake            44.80N 83.59W
07/01/2026                   Alcona             MI   Law Enforcement

            Trees and power lines down.

&&