Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
237 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

At a glance:

-Showers ending overnight.

- The front will clear out tomorrow morning, leaving cooler
temperatures in it's wake.

A frontal boundary moving through the state today with showers
across the area. We should continue to see intermittent showers
through midnight or so with things slowly clearing out through
daybreak Sun. Instability is fairly limited across the state this
afternoon so we are not seeing much in the way of thunderstorms
at the moment. We still could see an isolated thunderstorm or two
before this front moves out but not expecting anything severe.

Hi-Res models showing a second, more organized line moving into
NW GA right around 20z-22z. It pushes through the ATL/CSG areas
right around sunset and continues moving SE over night. This will
be the best timeframe to see and thunderstorms but still not
expecting much in the way of a severe storm.

A drier cooler airmass wraps around the backside of the main low
pressure center over KY Sun bringing mostly clear skies to north
and Central GA. Temps Sun will be mainly in the 60s and 70s with
some near 80 deg temps across east central GA. Lows Sun night will
dip down into the 40s and 50s.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

-Drier and cooler conditions are likely early next week

-Unsettled weather is likely to return mid-week sticking around
through at least the end of the work week

No major changes made to the extended forecast. At the start of
the long term, an upper low becomes more centered over the Ohio
and TN Valley Regions with the surface low occluded at this point
and the surface front draped across the Mid-Atlantic States well
to our east. This positioning will allow a cooler drier airmass
to wrap around the backside of the low and move in across North
ans central GA. We should see daytime highs Monday Tuesday mainly
in the 70s with some lower 80s across portions of Central GA.
Night time Lows will dip down into the 40s and 50s as well.

As we head towards mid-week (Wednesday), latest ensembles indicate
the upper low will lift to the northeast and the ridge over the
Central US flattens as another broad trough takes up residence over
the western two-thirds of the CONUS. West to southwest flow at the
midlevels will usher in several weak disturbances across the
Southeast through at least the end of the week. Thus, unsettled
weather in the way of showers and thunderstorms return between
Wednesday and Friday. At this time, rain and thunder chances look to
be highest during the afternoon into the early evening coinciding
with peak heating. Temperatures during this timeframe will remain
'cooler' primarily due to cloud cover with forecast values in the
70s in most locations -- aside from northeast GA where temperatures
may only reach the 60s.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

Light showers across the area should continue through the evening
hours. Will see ceilings mainly in the VFR to MVFR range as the
showers cross over the TAF sites through 03-05z. Ceilings will
fall over night to near the IFR range but should stay just above
through daybreak. Ceilings will clear out shortly after daybreak
Sun. Winds will stay out of the W-SW through the period. Wind
speeds will be mainly in the 5-10kt range with some higher gust
near 20kt late Sun morning into Sun afternoon. Vsbys will stay
mainly in the VFR range but will see some MVFR readings in and
around any stronger showers.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          55  73  48  74 /  90   0   0   0
Atlanta         55  72  50  73 /  80   0   0   0
Blairsville     48  65  42  66 /  90  10   0  10
Cartersville    51  70  45  72 /  60   0   0   0
Columbus        56  75  50  77 /  80   0   0   0
Gainesville     55  70  49  71 /  90   0   0   0
Macon           58  78  50  78 /  80   0   0   0
Rome            51  69  45  72 /  40  10   0   0
Peachtree City  53  73  47  75 /  90   0   0   0
Vidalia         64  82  56  82 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
213 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-041815-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
213 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible through 6 PM today, mainly in
east central Georgia. A line of storms will move through north and
central Georgia between 6 PM and midnight. A couple of storms
within the line may produce damaging wind gusts in the 40 to 60
mph range, mainly before 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered thunderstorms will return to the region between
Wednesday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but
Spotters are encouraged to submit reports of severe weather
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
228 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

GAZ086-031900-
Emanuel GA-
228 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Emanuel
County through 300 PM EDT...

At 228 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Oak Park, or 9 miles
north of Lyons, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Twin City, Stillmore, Oak Park, Lexsy, and George L Smith State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3252 8215 3248 8218 3242 8219 3235 8225
      3235 8224 3232 8223 3229 8228 3229 8235
      3232 8236 3236 8241 3240 8240 3261 8219
      3254 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 225DEG 19KT 3234 8230

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH