Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

Key Messages:

 - Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far north Georgia this
   afternoon, which are capable of producing hail and damaging
   wind gusts.

 - Another round of thunderstorms and potential severe weather is
   expected to enter north Georgia this evening into tonight

 - More widespread rain is forecast on Saturday, especially to the
   north of I-85.

An Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) from SPC remains in place across the
far northwest corner of the area, in Dade, Walker, Chattooga, Floyd,
and Catoosa counties with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across far
north Georgia. Isolated thunderstorms have begun to develop across
north Georgia, roughly to the north of I-20. High temperatures this
afternoon are expected to rise into the mid to upper 80s this
afternoon. Considering these aforementioned high temperatures and
dewpoints in the 60s, SBCAPE values will largely peak between 2000-
3000 J/kg this afternoon. With 700-500 mb lapse rates between 6.5-7
C/km across north Georgia, these storms will be capable of producing
gusty winds and hail, with hail up to 1 inch already observed.

As a cold front advances into west TN late this afternoon into the
evening, another round of thunderstorms will arrive as an organized
line of storms moves into far northwest Georgia. With strong surface-
based instability and 0-6 km bulk shear values around 40 kts,
damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with any severe
thunderstorms associated with this complex. Furthermore, hi-res
guidance indicates 30-35 kts of 0-1 km shear along with 0-1 km storm
relative helicity between 100-150 m2/s2 across portions of
extreme northwest Georgia and ahead of the frontal boundary in the
hours around sunset. Here, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled
out if all ingredients are in alignment this evening.

The cold front itself will advance into the state late tonight and
into early Saturday afternoon. Once it pushes further into Georgia,
it will begin to slow as the parent low pressure system and better
upper level support move away to the northeast. As such, most of the
models have it losing steam and stalling by the time it reaches the
metro Atlanta area. The boundary will provide a focus for showers
and thunderstorms, with likely to categorical PoPs forecast by the
afternoon and into the evening. High temperatures will be limited to
the 70s roughly along and north of I-85 and in the 80s to the south
with lesser cloud cover and a later onset time for precipitation. A
few storms will once again be capable of becoming strong to severe,
capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. A Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) has been diagnosed across the entire forecast area.
Rainfall totals through Saturday are forecast to range from 1-2
inches roughly along and north of the I-85 corridor, with locally
higher amounts possible with stronger storms that occur. Rainfall
amounts will then be progressively lower to the south and east.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

No major changes made to the extended forecast. An upper low will be
slowly moving NE across the Mid MS and Ohio Valley Regions Sun
through Tue. At the surface, showers and thunderstorms will likely
be ongoing Sunday morning as a result of a cold front moving
through. Progression of this system is trending slightly slower per
latest guidance so depending on how far the front progresses, there
may be lingering shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon
across portions of east-central GA. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during peak heating. The upper low
becomes more centered over the Ohio Valley and the surface front
largely southeast of the forecast area by Monday. Again, depending
on how far the front progressions far east-central GA may still see
isolated thunder chances Monday afternoon.

Drier and cooler conditions will kick off the work week. As
mentioned in previous forecasts, an omega block type pattern looks
to set up -- ridge across the Central US and a low on either side --
which will promote drier and cooler conditions. Confidence remains
low as to where exactly the eastern low and central ridge set up but
as a general rule of thumb with northerly flow and a surface high
set up mostly dry and cool conditions will prevail early next week.
Beyond midweek models begin to diverge, though unsettled weather
looks to return late next week.

Forecast daytime temperatures will start off in the 70s to low 80s
and gradually warm back up into the upper 70s to mid 80s by the end
of the period. Forecast lows dip into the 40s to low 50s Monday
morning becoming more mild with lows in the 50s and 60s by
midweek.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the north of I-20,
including around RYY and AHN. A TEMPO for TSRA is also being
carried at ATL from 20-23Z this afternoon. Outside of
thunderstorms, conditions will be VFR this afternoon with a cu
field between 035-050. As a cold front advances closer to north
GA, a line of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated to move
across north Georgia between 00-06Z, though some uncertainty
remains with the exact timing. Precipitation chances will become
more widespread and ceilings will lower to MVFR across the area
Saturday afternoon. Winds will be SW at 5-10 kts through the
period, with occasional gusts of 15-20 kts this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on wx timing.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  80  57  76 /  20  70  80  20
Atlanta         62  76  57  74 /  30  90  70  10
Blairsville     56  71  50  69 /  70  90  80  20
Cartersville    59  74  52  72 /  50  90  60  10
Columbus        62  79  58  77 /  10  80  80  10
Gainesville     61  76  56  72 /  40  80  80  10
Macon           62  84  60  79 /  10  60  90  20
Rome            59  74  52  72 /  60  90  50  10
Peachtree City  59  77  54  75 /  20  80  80  10
Vidalia         65  88  64  82 /  10  50  80  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
635 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-032245-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
635 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A line of thunderstorms is forecast to impact portions of north
Georgia this evening into tonight. Some, if not many, storms will
be severe, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to
the size of a quarter. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect
until 11 PM tonight for portions of north Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and central
Georgia over the weekend, with the greatest potential for severe
storms expected on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but
Spotters are encouraged to submit reports of severe weather
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
835 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSE Salacoa Valley    34.36N 84.58W
05/02/2025                   Cherokee           GA   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple trees down along Rockhouse Road
            near Salacoa Road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
840 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ016-030115-
White GA-
840 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central White County
through 915 PM EDT...

At 840 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Cleveland, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and up to dime sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Helen, Unicoi State Park, Robertstown, Anna Ruby Falls,
Smithgall Woods Conservation Are, Sautee, and Qualatchee Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
north central and northeastern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8365 3477 8364 3476 8363 3473 8362
      3472 8364 3467 8364 3466 8366 3462 8364
      3460 8365 3451 8376 3456 8387 3459 8386
      3480 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 224DEG 28KT 3459 8378

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
848 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Cherry Log        34.82N 84.41W
05/02/2025                   Gilmer             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Several trees down near the intersection of
            Lucious Road and Boardtown Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
849 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Cherry Log        34.80N 84.38W
05/02/2025                   Gilmer             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down near the intersection of Lucious
            Road and Highway 515.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
850 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Cherry Log          34.78N 84.44W
05/02/2025                   Gilmer             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Wires down near the intersection of Big Ben
            Road and Boardtown Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
855 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Hail             4 ESE Talmadge          34.41N 84.49W
05/02/2025  E1.00 Inch       Pickens            GA   Amateur Radio

            Estimated Quarter-sized hail near the
            intersection of Pettit Road and Henderson
            Mountain Road.

&&