Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
920 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

Key Messages:

 - Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far north Georgia
   this afternoon, which are capable of producing hail and
   damaging wind gusts.

 - Another round of thunderstorms and potential severe weather is
   expected to enter north Georgia this evening into tonight

 - More widespread rain is forecast on Saturday, especially to the
   north of I-85.

An Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) from SPC remains in place across
the far northwest corner of the area, in Dade, Walker, Chattooga,
Floyd, and Catoosa counties with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
across far north Georgia. Isolated thunderstorms have begun to
develop across north Georgia, roughly to the north of I-20. High
temperatures this afternoon are expected to rise into the mid to
upper 80s this afternoon. Considering these aforementioned high
temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s, SBCAPE values will largely
peak between 2000- 3000 J/kg this afternoon. With 700-500 mb lapse
rates between 6.5-7 C/km across north Georgia, these storms will
be capable of producing gusty winds and hail, with hail up to 1
inch already observed.

As a cold front advances into west TN late this afternoon into
the evening, another round of thunderstorms will arrive as an
organized line of storms moves into far northwest Georgia. With
strong surface- based instability and 0-6 km bulk shear values
around 40 kts, damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with
any severe thunderstorms associated with this complex.
Furthermore, hi-res guidance indicates 30-35 kts of 0-1 km shear
along with 0-1 km storm relative helicity between 100-150 m2/s2
across portions of extreme northwest Georgia and ahead of the
frontal boundary in the hours around sunset. Here, a brief tornado
or two cannot be ruled out if all ingredients are in alignment
this evening.

The cold front itself will advance into the state late tonight
and into early Saturday afternoon. Once it pushes further into
Georgia, it will begin to slow as the parent low pressure system
and better upper level support move away to the northeast. As
such, most of the models have it losing steam and stalling by the
time it reaches the metro Atlanta area. The boundary will provide
a focus for showers and thunderstorms, with likely to categorical
PoPs forecast by the afternoon and into the evening. High
temperatures will be limited to the 70s roughly along and north of
I-85 and in the 80s to the south with lesser cloud cover and a
later onset time for precipitation. A few storms will once again
be capable of becoming strong to severe, capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and hail. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) has
been diagnosed across the entire forecast area. Rainfall totals
through Saturday are forecast to range from 1-2 inches roughly
along and north of the I-85 corridor, with locally higher amounts
possible with stronger storms that occur. Rainfall amounts will
then be progressively lower to the south and east.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

No major changes made to the extended forecast. An upper low will
be slowly moving NE across the Mid MS and Ohio Valley Regions Sun
through Tue. At the surface, showers and thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing Sunday morning as a result of a cold front
moving through. Progression of this system is trending slightly
slower per latest guidance so depending on how far the front
progresses, there may be lingering shower and thunderstorm chances
Sunday afternoon across portions of east-central GA. Isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during peak
heating. The upper low becomes more centered over the Ohio Valley
and the surface front largely southeast of the forecast area by
Monday. Again, depending on how far the front progressions far
east-central GA may still see isolated thunder chances Monday
afternoon.

Drier and cooler conditions will kick off the work week. As
mentioned in previous forecasts, an omega block type pattern looks
to set up -- ridge across the Central US and a low on either side
-- which will promote drier and cooler conditions. Confidence
 remains low as to where exactly the eastern low and central ridge
 set up but as a general rule of thumb with northerly flow and a
 surface high set up mostly dry and cool conditions will prevail
 early next week. Beyond midweek models begin to diverge, though
 unsettled weather looks to return late next week.

Forecast daytime temperatures will start off in the 70s to low
80s and gradually warm back up into the upper 70s to mid 80s by
the end of the period. Forecast lows dip into the 40s to low 50s
Monday morning becoming more mild with lows in the 50s and 60s by
midweek.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 905 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

As of the time of this writing, a line of severe TSRA is
weakening as it approaches metro Atlanta. Have TEMPOs for ATL and
the other metro sites from 02z to 05z for TSRA and associated
gusty, erratic winds. Have a TEMPO at AHN as well from 03z to 06z,
but there is uncertainty regarding whether TSRA will persist that
far eastward. Another round of SHRA and TSRA is expected tomorrow
(Saturday) afternoon and evening, with MVFR/IFR cigs and MVFR
vsby in tow. Winds are expected to be SSW to SW tomorrow, although
a brief period of SSE winds in the morning will be possible.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on TSRA timing tomorrow and cigs/vis.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  84  61  80 /   0  40  20  70
Atlanta         66  85  62  76 /   0  40  30  90
Blairsville     54  79  56  71 /  50  70  70  90
Cartersville    62  83  59  74 /  10  60  50  90
Columbus        66  88  62  79 /   0  10  10  80
Gainesville     60  83  61  76 /   0  60  40  80
Macon           62  88  62  84 /   0  10  10  60
Rome            60  84  59  74 /   0  70  60  90
Peachtree City  60  85  59  77 /   0  40  20  80
Vidalia         66  89  65  88 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
635 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-032245-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
635 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A line of thunderstorms is forecast to impact portions of north
Georgia this evening into tonight. Some, if not many, storms will
be severe, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to
the size of a quarter. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect
until 11 PM tonight for portions of north Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and central
Georgia over the weekend, with the greatest potential for severe
storms expected on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but
Spotters are encouraged to submit reports of severe weather
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
835 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSE Salacoa Valley    34.36N 84.58W
05/02/2025                   Cherokee           GA   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple trees down along Rockhouse Road
            near Salacoa Road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
840 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ016-030115-
White GA-
840 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central White County
through 915 PM EDT...

At 840 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Cleveland, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and up to dime sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Helen, Unicoi State Park, Robertstown, Anna Ruby Falls,
Smithgall Woods Conservation Are, Sautee, and Qualatchee Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
north central and northeastern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8365 3477 8364 3476 8363 3473 8362
      3472 8364 3467 8364 3466 8366 3462 8364
      3460 8365 3451 8376 3456 8387 3459 8386
      3480 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 224DEG 28KT 3459 8378

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
848 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Cherry Log        34.82N 84.41W
05/02/2025                   Gilmer             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Several trees down near the intersection of
            Lucious Road and Boardtown Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
849 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Cherry Log        34.80N 84.38W
05/02/2025                   Gilmer             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down near the intersection of Lucious
            Road and Highway 515.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
850 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Cherry Log          34.78N 84.44W
05/02/2025                   Gilmer             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Wires down near the intersection of Big Ben
            Road and Boardtown Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
855 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Hail             4 ESE Talmadge          34.41N 84.49W
05/02/2025  E1.00 Inch       Pickens            GA   Amateur Radio

            Estimated Quarter-sized hail near the
            intersection of Pettit Road and Henderson
            Mountain Road.

&&