River Flood Warning 29, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
935 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The center of what is now Tropical Storm Debby, currently over east
central South Carolina, will move northward through the Piedmont of
North Carolina through early Friday. A trailing surface front will
hold over western and central North Carolina Friday through
Saturday, resulting in continued unsettled weather. The front will
then slowly sweep east through the area Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 935 AM Thursday...

...Flood threat continues across all of central NC...

...Isolated wind gusts to 35-50 mph remain possible within the
heavier rain bands with background gusts 20-35 mph common...

...Isolated tornado threat continues over our eastern half into
north central areas of central NC...

Forecast remains on track and in line with conditions. TS Debby,
located about 90 miles N of CHS at 8 AM, will slowly weaken as it
tracks through the Piedmont through early Fri. The most immediate
threats remain heavy rain producing widespread flooding, and we've
had several tornadic circulations, and at least two confirmed
touchdowns, along a convective band that is now oriented from
Edgecombe through Person county. This band will continue to be
closely monitored as it lifts NNW. Additional bands of embedded
enhanced updrafts with a tornado threat are expected from the
Triangle through Wayne/Sampson county to the coast, where some
elevated CAPE exists, and additional circulations may spin up there
as well. Flash flood warnings remain for the entire area, and while
there is currently a relative lull area lifting into our southern
sections, this area has already seen 24 hr totals of 3-6+ inches,
and rivers and streams are running very high or are flooding and
can't take much more water. Will maintain high pops areawide. Temps
will move little, and highs in the 70s to near 80 are expected. -GIH

Earlier discussion from 400 AM: Tropical Storm Debby will move
northwest across eastern South Carolina through the early afternoon
and then north while picking up speed across the western Piedmont of
NC through midnight, before continuing north through the Mid-
Atlantic states Friday.

Multiple rain bands will continue to spiral from SE to NW through
the afternoon and early evening, with the rain becoming a little
more scattered/broken in nature towards midnight as Debby's
circulation center begins to lift north of the area.

While the flooding threat will persist across of central NC, the
axis of heaviest rain and accompanying flash flooding threat will
gradually shift westward across the NC Piedmont, where 4-6 inches is
expected. HREF PPM suggests the potential for isolated higher
amounts up to 8-9 inches is possible across the western Piedmont,
which is certainly plausible as the heavy rainfall axis typically
becomes aligned west of track as system starts to transition to
extratropical. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is expected.

Strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph possible within the heavier rain
bands. Otherwise, expect wind gusts of 20-30 mph outside of the
heavier rain bands.

The isolated tornado threat should persist into the afternoon and
evening as additional bands move through the area, especially as
modest steepening of low-level lapse rates occur. While the best
instability of 750-1250 J/ is forecast to remain east of US 1, the 0-
3 km storm-relative helicity swath of 200 to 300 m2/s2 will shift NW
into the Piedmont and northern coastal plain.

Highs today ranging from mid 70s NW to lower/mid 80s east. Lows in
the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

The circulation associated with Debby will be just north of the
forecast area by daybreak Friday and the process of becoming
extratropical should be well underway at that point. Various hi-res
models suggest the low will drag a cold front over the mountains and
through the area, but that is unlikely to happen until some point
this weekend. There will remain an area of enhanced northward
oriented moisture transport across the Coastal Plain throughout the
day on Friday, co-located with the greatest instability and shear
and this is the area where the highest PoPs will remain in place
through at least 00Z Saturday. While the Flood Watch remains in
place area-wide through 9pm Friday night and may ultimately be
trimmed in time and space across the western Piedmont, I'll leave it
in place as-is for now given the potential for at least some showers
and storms through the first half of the day west of the Triangle.
Precip should end area-wide by late Friday night.

Highs in the low to mid 80s, lows in the upper 60s/around 70.

&&.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

The front that will sweep Debby out of the region will extend from
New England south along the East Coast Saturday morning, passing
along the I-95 corridor in North Carolina, then tracking southwest
back towards New Orleans. While the front to the north of North
Carolina will move east over the Atlantic Ocean over the weekend,
the southern portion of the front will actually pivot to more of an
east-west orientation, extending back towards Atlanta by Monday
morning. The front should then become stationary in this fashion
through the middle of next week. As a result, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms has increased from the previous forecast, with a
30-50% chance east of I-95 each afternoon/evening, with a lesser
chance back towards the Triad. The precipitation chances will be
diurnally driven, with higher values in the afternoon/evening hours
and lesser values overnight and in the morning. While some southern
locations might reach the lower 90s on Saturday, the rest of the
area should be in the 80s that day. From Sunday onward, highs will
be in the 80s in all locations. Lows will range from the mid 60s to
the low 70s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /1130Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 AM Thursday...

* TC Debby will produce widespread adverse conditions with IFR/MVFR
  restrictions, gusty winds and some LLWS.

Multiple rain bands will continue to spiral from SE to NW through
the afternoon and evening, with the rain becoming a little more
scattered/broken in nature late this evening and into the overnight
hours as Debby's circulation center lifts off to the north. Flight
restrictions are expected to remain predominately IFR to MVFR
through the evening, before potentially lowering to LIFR
tonight.

Additionally, could see embedded thunder at times, especially this
afternoon due to some tempered heating and steeper low-level lapse
rates.

East-northeasterly gusts of 15 to 25 kts will persist through the
evening, with stronger wind gusts of 35-45 kts possible within the
heavier rain bands. Winds will shift to SSWLY late this evening and
tonight as the center of the circulation passes north of the area.

Lastly, despite some stronger flow near the sfc, there remains a
chance for low-level wind shear at all TAF sites into the afternoon.

Looking ahead: Adverse aviation conditions will continue through
Friday morning with conditions improving by midday/early afternoon
Friday. Expect generally VFR conditions Saturday through early next
week, with mainly scattered diurnal driven showers and storms
possible each afternoon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CBL
SHORT TERM...DL
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...CBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
105 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

NCZ021>024-038>040-073>077-083>086-088-089-091015-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
Sampson-
105 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Debby will result in
an increased threat for flooding across the watch area. Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches have already fallen across the watch area.
An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected through early
Friday, with locally higher amounts possible.

Additionally, isolated wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph within heavier
rain bands could lead to scattered power outages and downed trees
through early Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

People living along rivers and creeks should make preparations for
possible moderate river flooding by late week and lingering into
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ007>011-025>028-041>043-078-091015-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-
105 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 614 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.

Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Debby will result in
an increased threat for flooding across the watch area. Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches have already fallen across the watch area.
An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected through early
Friday, with locally higher amounts possible.

Additionally, isolated tornadoes will be possible through the
early evening as rain bands continue to move through the area.

Finally, isolated wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph within heavier rain
bands could lead to scattered power outages and downed trees through
early Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

People living along rivers and creeks should make preparations for
possible moderate river flooding by late week and lingering into
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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