Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
350 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front across the mid-Atlantic will linger through today. The
center of Tropical Storm Debby will move northwest and onto the
South Carolina coast this evening and then drift northward across
the central Carolinas on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

...Flood Threat Continues across all of Central NC...

...Strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph possible within the heavier rain
bands...

...Isolated tornado threat across eastern NC could spread into
interior/Piedmont sections of NC during the afternoon...

Tropical Storm Debby will move northwest across eastern South
Carolina through the early afternoon and then north while picking up
speed across the western Piedmont of NC through midnight, before
continuing north through the Mid-Atlantic states Friday.

Multiple rain bands will continue to spiral from SE to NW through
the afternoon and early evening, with the rain becoming a little
more scattered/broken in nature towards midnight as Debby's
circulation center begins to lift north of the area.

While the flooding threat will persist across of central NC, the
axis of heaviest rain and accompanying flash flooding threat will
gradually shift westward across the NC Piedmont, where 4-6 inches is
expected. HREF PPM suggests the potential for isolated higher
amounts up to 8-9 inches is possible across the western Piedmont,
which is certainly plausible as the heavy rainfall axis typically
becomes aligned west of track as system starts to transition to
extratropical. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is expected.

Strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph possible within the heavier rain
bands. Otherwise, expect wind gusts of 20-30 mph outside of the
heavier rain bands.

The isolated tornado threat should persist into the afternoon and
evening as additional bands move through the area, especially as
modest steepening of low-level lapse rates occur. While the best
instability of 750-1250 J/ is forecast to remain east of US 1, the 0-
3 km storm-relative helicity swath of 200 to 300 m2/s2 will shift NW
into the Piedmont and northern coastal plain.

Highs today ranging from mid 70s NW to lower/mid 80s east. Lows in
the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

The circulation associated with Debby will be just north of the
forecast area by daybreak Friday and the process of becoming
extratropical should be well underway at that point. Various hi-res
models suggest the low will drag a cold front over the mountains and
through the area, but that is unlikely to happen until some point
this weekend. There will remain an area of enhanced northward
oriented moisture transport across the Coastal Plain throughout the
day on Friday, co-located with the greatest instability and shear
and this is the area where the highest PoPs will remain in place
through at least 00Z Saturday. While the Flood Watch remains in
place area-wide through 9pm Friday night and may ultimately be
trimmed in time and space across the western Piedmont, I'll leave it
in place as-is for now given the potential for at least some showers
and storms through the first half of the day west of the Triangle.
Precip should end area-wide by late Friday night.

Highs in the low to mid 80s, lows in the upper 60s/around 70.

&&.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

The front that will sweep Debby out of the region will extend from
New England south along the East Coast Saturday morning, passing
along the I-95 corridor in North Carolina, then tracking southwest
back towards New Orleans. While the front to the north of North
Carolina will move east over the Atlantic Ocean over the weekend,
the southern portion of the front will actually pivot to more of an
east-west orientation, extending back towards Atlanta by Monday
morning. The front should then become stationary in this fashion
through the middle of next week. As a result, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms has increased from the previous forecast, with a
30-50% chance east of I-95 each afternoon/evening, with a lesser
chance back towards the Triad. The precipitation chances will be
diurnally driven, with higher values in the afternoon/evening hours
and lesser values overnight and in the morning. While some southern
locations might reach the lower 90s on Saturday, the rest of the
area should be in the 80s that day. From Sunday onward, highs will
be in the 80s in all locations. Lows will range from the mid 60s to
the low 70s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM Thursday...

* TC Debby will produce widespread adverse conditions with IFR
  restrictions, gusty winds and some LLWS through the 24 hour
  forecast period.

Multiple rain bands will continue to spiral from SE to NW through
the afternoon and evening, with the rain becoming a little more
scattered/broken in nature towards the end of the period as
Debby's circulation center lifts off to the north. Flight
restrictions are expected to remain IFR through the period.
Additionally, could see embedded thunder at times, especially this
afternoon due to some tempered heating and steeper low-level lapse
rates.

East-northeasterly gusts of 15 to 25 kts will persist through the
evening, with stronger wind gusts of 35-45 kts possible within the
heavier rain bands. Winds will shift to SSWLY late this evening and
tonight as the center of the circulation passes north of the area.

Lastly, despite some stronger flow near the sfc, there remains a
chance for fleeting low-level wind shear especially near KFAY later
tonight through Thursday morning.

Looking ahead: Adverse aviation conditions will continue through
early Friday with conditions improving by midday/early afternoon
Friday. Expect generally VFR conditions Saturday through early next
week, with mainly scattered diurnal driven showers and storms
possible each afternoon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...DL
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...CBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
445 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

NCZ026-027-041-042-075>077-084>086-082045-
Franklin-Nash-Wake-Johnston-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
445 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Tropical cyclone Debby will bring a threat of heavy rain of 4-8
inches through Friday, with locally higher amounts possible.
Rainfall of this magnitude will have the potential to cause
considerable and significant flooding.

Additionally, people living along rivers and creeks should make
preparations for possible moderate river flooding by late week and
lingering into next week.

Finally, wind gusts up to 40 mph could lead to scattered power
outages and downed trees Thursday and into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>009-021>025-038>040-073-074-083-082045-
Person-Granville-Vance-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Anson-
445 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Tropical cyclone Debby will bring a threat of heavy rain of 3-8
inches through Friday, with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall
of this magnitude will have the potential to result in flash
flooding.

Additionally, people living along rivers and creeks
should make preparations for possible moderate river flooding by
late week and lingering into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ028-043-078-088-089-082045-
Edgecombe-Wilson-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
445 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A isolated tornado is possible as waves of thunderstorms move
northward.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Tropical cyclone Debby will bring a threat of heavy rain of 4-8
inches through Friday, with locally higher amounts possible.
Rainfall of this magnitude will have the potential to cause
considerable and significant flooding.

Additionally, people living along rivers and creeks should make
preparations for possible moderate river flooding by late week and
lingering into next week.

Finally, wind gusts up to 40 mph could lead to scattered power
outages and downed trees Thursday and into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ010-011-082045-
Warren-Halifax-
445 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Tropical cyclone Debby will bring a threat of heavy rain of 2-4
inches through Friday, with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall
of this magnitude will have the potential to result in flash
flooding.

Additionally, people living along rivers and creeks
should make preparations for possible moderate river flooding by
late week and lingering into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1130 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 ENE Hope Mills        34.99N 78.89W
08/07/2024  M52 MPH          Cumberland         NC   ASOS

            Fayetteville Regional Airport ASOS.

&&

23

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1153 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 ENE East Laurinburg   34.80N 79.37W
08/07/2024  M46 MPH          Scotland           NC   ASOS

            Measured at Laurinburg Maxton Airport.

&&

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1230 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

NCZ078-080530-
Wayne NC-
1230 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY THROUGH 130 AM
EDT...

At 1229 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers near Seven
Springs, or 8 miles southeast of Goldsboro, moving northwest at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Mount Olive, Walnut Creek, Seven Springs, Mar-Mac,
Brogden, Cliffs Of The Neuse State Park, and Elroy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this shower. If the
shower intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to
be issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 7783 3518 7783 3516 7788 3515 7790
      3517 7793 3517 7796 3519 7800 3520 7812
      3531 7816 3535 7815 3537 7816 3541 7812
      3549 7799 3537 7781
TIME...MOT...LOC 0429Z 127DEG 36KT 3524 7785

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
101 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

NCZ078-080600-
Wayne NC-
101 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY THROUGH 200 AM
EDT...

At 101 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers over Walnut
Creek, or near Goldsboro, moving northwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Walnut Creek, Elroy, Mar-Mac, and Brogden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this shower. If the
shower intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to
be issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3530 7785 3529 7790 3531 7808 3534 7811
      3545 7808 3547 7799 3535 7786
TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 126DEG 23KT 3533 7790

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
246 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

NCZ042-043-078-080715-
Johnston NC-Wayne NC-Wilson NC-
246 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...SOUTHWESTERN WILSON
AND EAST CENTRAL JOHNSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 AM EDT...

At 246 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers near Walnut
Creek, or near La Grange, moving northwest at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Smithfield, Fremont, Walnut Creek, Micro, Selma, Pine
Level, Kenly, Princeton, and Lucama.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this storm. If the
storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 7782 3524 7783 3523 7784 3553 7833
      3573 7811 3548 7783 3543 7783 3540 7780
      3538 7780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0646Z 132DEG 40KT 3535 7784

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Green

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
344 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0251 AM     Tornado          3 NNW Lucama            35.68N 78.03W
08/08/2024                   Wilson             NC   Emergency Mngr

            Extensive damage to Springfield Middle
            School.

&&

Green