Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
350 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front across the mid-Atlantic will linger through today. The
center of Tropical Storm Debby will move northwest and onto the
South Carolina coast this evening and then drift northward across
the central Carolinas on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

...Flood Threat Continues across all of Central NC...

...Strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph possible within the heavier rain
bands...

...Isolated tornado threat across eastern NC could spread into
interior/Piedmont sections of NC during the afternoon...

Tropical Storm Debby will move northwest across eastern South
Carolina through the early afternoon and then north while picking up
speed across the western Piedmont of NC through midnight, before
continuing north through the Mid-Atlantic states Friday.

Multiple rain bands will continue to spiral from SE to NW through
the afternoon and early evening, with the rain becoming a little
more scattered/broken in nature towards midnight as Debby's
circulation center begins to lift north of the area.

While the flooding threat will persist across of central NC, the
axis of heaviest rain and accompanying flash flooding threat will
gradually shift westward across the NC Piedmont, where 4-6 inches is
expected. HREF PPM suggests the potential for isolated higher
amounts up to 8-9 inches is possible across the western Piedmont,
which is certainly plausible as the heavy rainfall axis typically
becomes aligned west of track as system starts to transition to
extratropical. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is expected.

Strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph possible within the heavier rain
bands. Otherwise, expect wind gusts of 20-30 mph outside of the
heavier rain bands.

The isolated tornado threat should persist into the afternoon and
evening as additional bands move through the area, especially as
modest steepening of low-level lapse rates occur. While the best
instability of 750-1250 J/ is forecast to remain east of US 1, the 0-
3 km storm-relative helicity swath of 200 to 300 m2/s2 will shift NW
into the Piedmont and northern coastal plain.

Highs today ranging from mid 70s NW to lower/mid 80s east. Lows in
the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

The circulation associated with Debby will be just north of the
forecast area by daybreak Friday and the process of becoming
extratropical should be well underway at that point. Various hi-res
models suggest the low will drag a cold front over the mountains and
through the area, but that is unlikely to happen until some point
this weekend. There will remain an area of enhanced northward
oriented moisture transport across the Coastal Plain throughout the
day on Friday, co-located with the greatest instability and shear
and this is the area where the highest PoPs will remain in place
through at least 00Z Saturday. While the Flood Watch remains in
place area-wide through 9pm Friday night and may ultimately be
trimmed in time and space across the western Piedmont, I'll leave it
in place as-is for now given the potential for at least some showers
and storms through the first half of the day west of the Triangle.
Precip should end area-wide by late Friday night.

Highs in the low to mid 80s, lows in the upper 60s/around 70.

&&.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

The front that will sweep Debby out of the region will extend from
New England south along the East Coast Saturday morning, passing
along the I-95 corridor in North Carolina, then tracking southwest
back towards New Orleans. While the front to the north of North
Carolina will move east over the Atlantic Ocean over the weekend,
the southern portion of the front will actually pivot to more of an
east-west orientation, extending back towards Atlanta by Monday
morning. The front should then become stationary in this fashion
through the middle of next week. As a result, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms has increased from the previous forecast, with a
30-50% chance east of I-95 each afternoon/evening, with a lesser
chance back towards the Triad. The precipitation chances will be
diurnally driven, with higher values in the afternoon/evening hours
and lesser values overnight and in the morning. While some southern
locations might reach the lower 90s on Saturday, the rest of the
area should be in the 80s that day. From Sunday onward, highs will
be in the 80s in all locations. Lows will range from the mid 60s to
the low 70s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM Thursday...

* TC Debby will produce widespread adverse conditions with IFR
  restrictions, gusty winds and some LLWS through the 24 hour
  forecast period.

Multiple rain bands will continue to spiral from SE to NW through
the afternoon and evening, with the rain becoming a little more
scattered/broken in nature towards the end of the period as
Debby's circulation center lifts off to the north. Flight
restrictions are expected to remain IFR through the period.
Additionally, could see embedded thunder at times, especially this
afternoon due to some tempered heating and steeper low-level lapse
rates.

East-northeasterly gusts of 15 to 25 kts will persist through the
evening, with stronger wind gusts of 35-45 kts possible within the
heavier rain bands. Winds will shift to SSWLY late this evening and
tonight as the center of the circulation passes north of the area.

Lastly, despite some stronger flow near the sfc, there remains a
chance for fleeting low-level wind shear especially near KFAY later
tonight through Thursday morning.

Looking ahead: Adverse aviation conditions will continue through
early Friday with conditions improving by midday/early afternoon
Friday. Expect generally VFR conditions Saturday through early next
week, with mainly scattered diurnal driven showers and storms
possible each afternoon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...DL
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...CBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
503 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

NCZ007-021>025-038>040-073>076-083>086-090915-
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-
Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
503 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Debby will result in
an increased threat for flooding across the Watch area. Rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches have already fallen across the watch area.
An additional 2 to 5 inches of rain is expected through early
Friday, with locally higher amounts possible over the NC Piedmont.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

People living along rivers and creeks should make preparations for
possible moderate river flooding by late week and lingering into next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ008>011-026>028-041>043-077-078-088-089-090915-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-
Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
503 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 613 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.

Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Debby will result in
an increased threat for flooding across the Watch area. Rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches have already fallen across the watch area,
with the highest amounts over the southern coastal plain and
Sandhills. An additional 2 to 5 inches of rain is expected through
early Friday, with locally higher amounts possible over the NC
Piedmont.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible through the afternoon and
evening and heavy rain bands continue to move through the area.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, within the heavier rain bands could lead
to scattered power outages and downed trees Thursday and into
Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

People living along rivers and creeks should make preparations for
possible moderate river flooding by late week and lingering into next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
600 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     Flash Flood      1 SSE Fayetteville      35.06N 78.89W
08/07/2024                   Cumberland         NC   911 Call Center

            Officials report numerous roads closed from
            flooding with water levels continuing to
            rise.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
602 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     Flash Flood      1 ESE Fayetteville      35.07N 78.89W
08/08/2024                   Cumberland         NC   911 Call Center

            Reports of numerous roads closed due to
            flooding across Cumberland County including
            several major thoroughfares.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
618 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 AM     Tornado          4 NW Lucama             35.68N 78.06W
08/08/2024                   Wilson             NC   Broadcast Media

            Several homes damaged or destroyed along
            Lloyd Road between Wiggins Mill Road and
            Governor Hunt Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
620 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     Flash Flood      5 S Lake Wheeler        35.63N 78.72W
08/08/2024                   Wake               NC   NWS Employee

            Several roads flooded with moving water in
            southern Wake County.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
622 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

NCZ028-043-081130-
Edgecombe NC-Wilson NC-
622 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN EDGECOMBE AND NORTHEASTERN
WILSON COUNTIES THROUGH 730 AM EDT...

At 622 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers 9 miles north
of Farmville, moving northwest at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Elm City, Sharpsburg, Pinetops, Macclesfield, and Willbanks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM EDT for central North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 7769 3583 7794 3585 7788 3585 7787
      3584 7785 3584 7784 3588 7782 3595 7771
      3575 7753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1022Z 139DEG 34KT 3573 7765

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

26

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
626 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     Flash Flood      1 S Aberdeen            35.13N 79.42W
08/08/2024                   Moore              NC   911 Call Center

            Several roads flooded in Moore County in
            Aberdeen and Southern Pines.

&&