Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
308 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The center of what is now Tropical Storm Debby, located over the
central border between North and South Carolina early this
afternoon, will move northward through the southern and western
Piedmont of North Carolina through tonight. A trailing surface front
will hold over western and central North Carolina Friday through
Saturday, then slowly sweep east through the area Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 308 PM Thursday...

* The threat of flooding will continue through tonight...
* Isolated tornadoes remain possible in the northeast through early
  this evening...

Forecast through tonight hinges on Debby's impacts, which have
altered a bit since this morning. The center of Debby was located
near the central border of NC/SC early this afternoon, but its rain
footprint has been expansive. The large solid shield of steady
moderate to heavy rain from earlier today is shifting to our N and
W, with only the Kerr Lake/Lake Gaston region still seeing the more
steady rain, however several bands of heavy tropical rain with
isolated convective elements continue to pivot up through central
NC. Clouds have been abundant today, but one-minute imagery from
GOES reveals numerous thin spots and holes between rainbands, and
these will act in a feedback loop by inciting higher CAPE with
heating which will foster and support additional rainbands with
isolated convection rotating around Debby through tonight as it
lifts northward into and through the S and W Piedmont. With PWs
still running 150-175% of normal through tonight, will maintain high
pops of likely to categorical nearly everywhere but with the higher
pops shifting into the Coastal Plain tonight as the greater upper
divergence shifts to our N. We've already had roughly 2 to 6 inches
of rain since early Wed afternoon, and we're poised to get as much
as 1 to 2.5 inches of additional rain through tonight. Given this
additional rain potential with wet soils and high water in creeks
and streams, will keep the flood watch in place. Last but not least,
the threat for isolated tornadoes will continue in our NE through
the afternoon, where marginal to moderate CAPE will couple with
abundant low level vorticity as shifting winds with height yield
very looped hodographs to create conditions favorable for a few
quick spin-ups. Lows will be mostly in the 70s. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

The circulation associated with Debby will be just north of the
forecast area by daybreak Friday and the process of becoming
extratropical should be well underway at that point. Various hi-res
models suggest the low will drag a cold front over the mountains and
through the area, but that is unlikely to happen until some point
this weekend. There will remain an area of enhanced northward
oriented moisture transport across the Coastal Plain throughout the
day on Friday, co-located with the greatest instability and shear
and this is the area where the highest PoPs will remain in place
through at least 00Z Saturday. While the Flood Watch remains in
place area-wide through 9pm Friday night and may ultimately be
trimmed in time and space across the western Piedmont, I'll leave it
in place as-is for now given the potential for at least some showers
and storms through the first half of the day west of the Triangle.
Precip should end area-wide by late Friday night.

Highs in the low to mid 80s, lows in the upper 60s/around 70.

&&.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

The front that will sweep Debby out of the region will extend from
New England south along the East Coast Saturday morning, passing
along the I-95 corridor in North Carolina, then tracking southwest
back towards New Orleans. While the front to the north of North
Carolina will move east over the Atlantic Ocean over the weekend,
the southern portion of the front will actually pivot to more of an
east-west orientation, extending back towards Atlanta by Monday
morning. The front should then become stationary in this fashion
through the middle of next week. As a result, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms has increased from the previous forecast, with a
30-50% chance east of I-95 each afternoon/evening, with a lesser
chance back towards the Triad. The precipitation chances will be
diurnally driven, with higher values in the afternoon/evening hours
and lesser values overnight and in the morning. While some southern
locations might reach the lower 90s on Saturday, the rest of the
area should be in the 80s that day. From Sunday onward, highs will
be in the 80s in all locations. Lows will range from the mid 60s to
the low 70s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

Adverse aviation conditions associated with Tropical Storm Debby,
including widespread MVFR to IFR cigs and periods of heavy
downpours, as well as strong shifting winds with height, will
persist into tonight.

The center of what is now TS Debby was located near the central
border between North and South Carolina early this afternoon, and
will continue to push northward, moving through our western areas
including near or over the Triad region through tonight. Much of the
solid area of heavy rain has shifted north of the terminals, however
bands of heavy rain continue to spiral around Debby's center, and
all terminals can expect a period of brief IFR vsbys within these
downpours. All but the extreme SE portions of central NC have MVFR
to IFR cigs at this hour, and these low cigs will continue through
daybreak Fri, with a high confidence in IFR cigs dominating from 22z
today to at least 13z Fri (although RWI may have a period of MVFR
cigs). Vsbys through tonight will be mostly MVFR to VFR, but as
noted will dip to IFR within heavy rain. Low level wind shear
remains a threat at INT/GSO through 22z today, although even outside
of LLWS criteria, winds will be strong and shifting with height at
all central NC terminals, creating potentially hazardous flight
conditions for some aircraft, especially smaller aircraft. As the
center of Debby lifts into VA Fri morning, our cigs are expected to
improve to MVFR then VFR between 14z and 18z, with rain becoming
more spotty in general, although FAY/RWI have a good chance of
seeing a line of heavy showers and embedded storms through the end
of the TAF valid time frame.

Looking beyond 18z Fri, shower/storm chances will persist through
Sat night mainly in the E, ahead of a slow moving cold front.
Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected, with isolated
afternoon storms mainly E through mid week. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...DL
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
105 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

NCZ021>024-038>040-073>077-083>086-088-089-091015-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
Sampson-
105 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Debby will result in
an increased threat for flooding across the watch area. Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches have already fallen across the watch area.
An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected through early
Friday, with locally higher amounts possible.

Additionally, isolated wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph within heavier
rain bands could lead to scattered power outages and downed trees
through early Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

People living along rivers and creeks should make preparations for
possible moderate river flooding by late week and lingering into
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ007>011-025>028-041>043-078-091015-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-
105 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 614 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.

Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Debby will result in
an increased threat for flooding across the watch area. Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches have already fallen across the watch area.
An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected through early
Friday, with locally higher amounts possible.

Additionally, isolated tornadoes will be possible through the
early evening as rain bands continue to move through the area.

Finally, isolated wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph within heavier rain
bands could lead to scattered power outages and downed trees through
early Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

People living along rivers and creeks should make preparations for
possible moderate river flooding by late week and lingering into
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
221 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     Flash Flood      3 NE Rolesville         35.96N 78.43W
08/08/2024                   Wake               NC   Trained Spotter

            Many streams and creeks continue to flood
            and several roads remain flooded in northern
            Wake county. Water was across NC 98 between
            NC 96 and Moores Pond Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
231 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     Flash Flood      3 SE Spivey's Corner    35.21N 78.49W
08/08/2024                   Sampson            NC   Dept of Highways

            Little Coharie Creek is spreading water
            across Benson Highway near Spiveys Corner.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
236 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     Flash Flood      Southern Pines          35.18N 79.40W
08/08/2024                   Moore              NC   Public

            Several roads flooded, some with moving
            water, across Moore County. Roads impacted
            include Farm Life School Road, Furr Road,
            McCaskill Road, NC HWY 24/27, and Lobelia
            Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
239 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     Flash Flood      Lillington              35.40N 78.82W
08/08/2024                   Harnett            NC   Dept of Highways

            Several roads flooded in Harnett County,
            many near Lillington including Rosser
            Pittman Road, Clayhole Road, Buie Road,
            Manor Hills Road, and Harnett Central Road.

&&