Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS St. Louis, MO

575 
WWUS53 KLSX 142312 RRA
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
612 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MOC219-142321-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-240314T2345Z/
Warren MO-
612 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. A Severe 
Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for most of Warren County 
until 630 PM.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for southwestern
Illinois...and east central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 9058 3899 9057 3895 9052 3897 9048
      3883 9043 3882 9045 3880 9047 3881 9088
      3895 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 265DEG 36KT 3889 9075 

$$

ILC013-MOC113-183-142345-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-240314T2345Z/
Calhoun IL-St. Charles MO-Lincoln MO-
612 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN...NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES AND SOUTHEASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES...

At 611 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near St. Paul,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
O'Fallon, St. Charles, St. Peters, Wentzville, St. Paul, Moscow
Mills, Josephville, Chain of Rocks, Flint Hill, Old Monroe, Brussels,
Meppen, Deer Plain, Kampville, Golden Eagle, and Beechville.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri near exit 208.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for southwestern
Illinois...and east central Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 9058 3899 9057 3895 9052 3897 9048
      3883 9043 3882 9045 3880 9047 3881 9088
      3895 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 265DEG 36KT 3889 9075 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
303 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Thunderstorms are expected through this evening (60 to 80 percent
 chance) across much of the area. There is a threat that some of these
 thunderstorms will become strong to severe with hazards of very
 large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two possible.

-Expect near or slightly above normal temperatures Friday and
 Saturday, then a cool down on Sunday and Monday after a dry cold
 front moves through Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The atmosphere ahead of the cold front has destabilized once
again with activity beginning to develop in the warm sector as of
19z. The latest surface analysis shows the outflow boundary
beginning to retreat back to the north, and currently extends from
surface low near MCI southeastward to near Jefferson City, then
eastward to the southern sections of the St. Louis metro area.
Latest RAP analysis is showing MLCAPEs near 2000 J/kg with no cap
left underneath a right entrance region of an upper level jet
streak. This instability combined with deep 0 to 6km bulk shear of
50-60kts, as well as 0-3km SRH around 200 to 250, indicates that
storm development will initially start off as supercellular.
Currently thunderstorms that are developing in southwestern MO
will race off to the northeast into central/east central/southeast
Missouri this afternoon. As some of the storms approach the
outflow boundary, winds are backed to the southeast on the north
side of it, thus this will increase the "spin" in the lowest
levels of the atmosphere and increase the likelihood of
tornadogenesis with any supercell that crosses it. Along with the
tornado threat, very large hail, baseball size or larger, and
damaging winds will also be likely with any severe thunderstorm.

By late this afternoon and evening, the shear vector will become
aligned with the boundary, thus will likely see a quick transition
to a mixed mode. The latest HRRR run continues to show the storms
will become more numerous along the I-70 corridor in IL and I-44
corridor in MO by 00z Friday and slide south, exiting the region
between 03z and 06z Friday.

Dry and near normal temperatures are expected on Friday as a surface
ridge builds into the region. Despite decreasing clouds, the colder
northerly winds will keep temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s for
highs.

Even though the surface ridge will weaken Friday night with surface
flow backing to the west to southwest once again, lows will still
drop off into the upper 30s to low 40s, but still a bit above normal
for this time of year.

Byrd
&&

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A strong area of low pressure will drop southeastward out of
western Canada into the Great Lakes region by this weekend. It
will drag a cold front into the area by Saturday night. This
boundary should pass through dry, with very weak low-level
convergence along it and the better mid/upper level forcing for
ascent residing across the Great Lakes. In the meantime,
temperatures will warm up on Saturday with highs in the 60s.

As decent CAA moves in Saturday night, temperatures will be below
normal for the last half of the weekend and into early next week.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s, while highs
on Monday will be in the 40s. Expect below freezing temperatures
area wide Sunday night and Monday night with lows in the 20s.

Temperatures will warm back above normal by the middle next week
with the next chance of rain holding off until Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Atmosphere in process of recovering from early morning activity
with storms expected to develop by 21z, especially for TAF sites
along I-70 corridor. Added tempo groups for this area between 21z
Thursday and 01z Friday with MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
Otherwise, rain will taper off as cold front moves through. It
will move through KUIN by 19z, KCOU/KJEF by 21z, and St. Louis
metro area by 03z Friday. In the meantime, expect gusty south
winds which will veer to the west then north with cold frontal
passage. Ceilings will lower to MVFR on back side of cold front
eventually lifting and scattering out by 11z Friday at KUIN, by
15z-16z at KCOU/KJEF, and by 17z Friday in the St. Louis metro
area.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
325 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-152030-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
325 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely through tonight. Some of these
thunderstorms could be severe capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening.

Byrd

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
532 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     Hail             Lake Saint Louis        38.79N 90.78W
03/14/2024  E2.75 inch       St. Charles        MO   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
533 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     Hail             1 NE Sunset Hills       38.55N 90.40W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       St. Louis          MO   Public

&&

JPG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
538 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     Hail             1 N Fulton              38.87N 91.95W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       Callaway           MO   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
544 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     Hail             3 SSE Sunset Hills      38.50N 90.38W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       St. Louis          MO   Public

            Delayed report, quarter sized hail at Butler
            Hill Road and Tesson Ferry.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
547 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     Hail             3 ESE Kampville         38.83N 90.49W
03/14/2024  E1.75 inch       St. Charles        MO   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report, golfball sized hail in New
            Town St. Charles.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
551 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     Hail             1 ENE Mehlville         38.51N 90.29W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       St. Louis          MO   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report, quarter sized hail at
            Telegraph Road and Jeffersonian Lane.

&&

MRM