Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS St. Louis, MO

203 
WWUS53 KLSX 142156
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
456 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ILC013-MOC113-163-142206-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-240314T2215Z/
Calhoun IL-Lincoln MO-Pike MO-
456 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY
IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN
MISSOURI IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for southwestern
Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 9015 3921 9059 3926 9061 3929 9060
      3935 9062 3934 9061 3951 9016
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 268DEG 41KT 3927 9043 

$$

ILC061-083-142215-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-240314T2215Z/
Greene IL-Jersey IL-
456 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR GREENE AND NORTHEASTERN JERSEY COUNTIES...

At 456 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Carrollton,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Greenfield, Athensville, Old Kane, Kemper, Kane, Wrights,
Eldred, Rockbridge, Fidelity, Belltown, Berdan, Haypress, and Woody.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for southwestern
Illinois.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 9015 3921 9059 3926 9061 3929 9060
      3935 9062 3934 9061 3951 9016
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 268DEG 41KT 3927 9043 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
303 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Thunderstorms are expected through this evening (60 to 80 percent
 chance) across much of the area. There is a threat that some of these
 thunderstorms will become strong to severe with hazards of very
 large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two possible.

-Expect near or slightly above normal temperatures Friday and
 Saturday, then a cool down on Sunday and Monday after a dry cold
 front moves through Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The atmosphere ahead of the cold front has destabilized once
again with activity beginning to develop in the warm sector as of
19z. The latest surface analysis shows the outflow boundary
beginning to retreat back to the north, and currently extends from
surface low near MCI southeastward to near Jefferson City, then
eastward to the southern sections of the St. Louis metro area.
Latest RAP analysis is showing MLCAPEs near 2000 J/kg with no cap
left underneath a right entrance region of an upper level jet
streak. This instability combined with deep 0 to 6km bulk shear of
50-60kts, as well as 0-3km SRH around 200 to 250, indicates that
storm development will initially start off as supercellular.
Currently thunderstorms that are developing in southwestern MO
will race off to the northeast into central/east central/southeast
Missouri this afternoon. As some of the storms approach the
outflow boundary, winds are backed to the southeast on the north
side of it, thus this will increase the "spin" in the lowest
levels of the atmosphere and increase the likelihood of
tornadogenesis with any supercell that crosses it. Along with the
tornado threat, very large hail, baseball size or larger, and
damaging winds will also be likely with any severe thunderstorm.

By late this afternoon and evening, the shear vector will become
aligned with the boundary, thus will likely see a quick transition
to a mixed mode. The latest HRRR run continues to show the storms
will become more numerous along the I-70 corridor in IL and I-44
corridor in MO by 00z Friday and slide south, exiting the region
between 03z and 06z Friday.

Dry and near normal temperatures are expected on Friday as a surface
ridge builds into the region. Despite decreasing clouds, the colder
northerly winds will keep temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s for
highs.

Even though the surface ridge will weaken Friday night with surface
flow backing to the west to southwest once again, lows will still
drop off into the upper 30s to low 40s, but still a bit above normal
for this time of year.

Byrd
&&

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A strong area of low pressure will drop southeastward out of
western Canada into the Great Lakes region by this weekend. It
will drag a cold front into the area by Saturday night. This
boundary should pass through dry, with very weak low-level
convergence along it and the better mid/upper level forcing for
ascent residing across the Great Lakes. In the meantime,
temperatures will warm up on Saturday with highs in the 60s.

As decent CAA moves in Saturday night, temperatures will be below
normal for the last half of the weekend and into early next week.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s, while highs
on Monday will be in the 40s. Expect below freezing temperatures
area wide Sunday night and Monday night with lows in the 20s.

Temperatures will warm back above normal by the middle next week
with the next chance of rain holding off until Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Atmosphere in process of recovering from early morning activity
with storms expected to develop by 21z, especially for TAF sites
along I-70 corridor. Added tempo groups for this area between 21z
Thursday and 01z Friday with MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
Otherwise, rain will taper off as cold front moves through. It
will move through KUIN by 19z, KCOU/KJEF by 21z, and St. Louis
metro area by 03z Friday. In the meantime, expect gusty south
winds which will veer to the west then north with cold frontal
passage. Ceilings will lower to MVFR on back side of cold front
eventually lifting and scattering out by 11z Friday at KUIN, by
15z-16z at KCOU/KJEF, and by 17z Friday in the St. Louis metro
area.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
325 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-152030-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
325 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely through tonight. Some of these
thunderstorms could be severe capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening.

Byrd

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
342 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     Hail             4 SW Jonesburg          38.81N 91.35W
03/14/2024  M1.00 inch       Warren             MO   Cocorahs

            Pea to quarter sized hail.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
355 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     Hail             Wright City             38.83N 91.03W
03/14/2024  E1.75 inch       Warren             MO   Amateur Radio

            Ham reported golf ball sized hail in Wright
            City.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
404 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     Hail             2 S Columbia            38.92N 92.33W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       Boone              MO   Public

            mPing reported 1 in hail 2 mi s of Columbia,
            MO.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
405 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     Hail             1 SW Wright City        38.81N 91.05W
03/14/2024  E1.75 inch       Warren             MO   Public

            mPing reported golf ball 1 mi sw of Wright
            City.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
420 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     Hail             2 WNW O'Fallon          38.80N 90.74W
03/14/2024  E1.50 inch       St. Charles        MO   Public

&&

PW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
421 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     Hail             4 S Steelville          37.92N 91.35W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       Crawford           MO   Public

&&

PW