Tornado Warning 16, NWS St. Louis, MO

745 
WWUS53 KLSX 142354
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
654 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ILC051-121-150015-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-240315T0015Z/
Marion IL-Fayette IL-
654 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MARION AND SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 654 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Stephen Forbes Station, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Marion and southeastern Fayette Counties, including the
following locations... St. Peter.

This includes Interstate 57 in Illinois near exit 135.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3872 8886 3888 8886 3887 8869 3868 8870
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 283DEG 39KT 3875 8876 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Glass

110 
WWUS53 KLSX 150008
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
708 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ILC051-121-150018-
/O.EXP.KLSX.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-240315T0015Z/
Marion IL-Fayette IL-
708 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MARION AND SOUTHEASTERN
FAYETTE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for south central
Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3872 8886 3888 8886 3887 8869 3868 8870
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 279DEG 31KT 3873 8861 

$$

Glass

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
632 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Thunderstorms are expected through this evening (60 to 80 percent
 chance) across much of the area. There is a threat that some of these
 thunderstorms will become strong to severe with hazards of very
 large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two possible.

-Expect near or slightly above normal temperatures Friday and
 Saturday, then a cool down on Sunday and Monday after a dry cold
 front moves through Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The atmosphere ahead of the cold front has destabilized once
again with activity beginning to develop in the warm sector as of
19z. The latest surface analysis shows the outflow boundary
beginning to retreat back to the north, and currently extends from
surface low near MCI southeastward to near Jefferson City, then
eastward to the southern sections of the St. Louis metro area.
Latest RAP analysis is showing MLCAPEs near 2000 J/kg with no cap
left underneath a right entrance region of an upper level jet
streak. This instability combined with deep 0 to 6km bulk shear of
50-60kts, as well as 0-3km SRH around 200 to 250, indicates that
storm development will initially start off as supercellular.
Currently thunderstorms that are developing in southwestern MO
will race off to the northeast into central/east central/southeast
Missouri this afternoon. As some of the storms approach the
outflow boundary, winds are backed to the southeast on the north
side of it, thus this will increase the "spin" in the lowest
levels of the atmosphere and increase the likelihood of
tornadogenesis with any supercell that crosses it. Along with the
tornado threat, very large hail, baseball size or larger, and
damaging winds will also be likely with any severe thunderstorm.

By late this afternoon and evening, the shear vector will become
aligned with the boundary, thus will likely see a quick transition
to a mixed mode. The latest HRRR run continues to show the storms
will become more numerous along the I-70 corridor in IL and I-44
corridor in MO by 00z Friday and slide south, exiting the region
between 03z and 06z Friday.

Dry and near normal temperatures are expected on Friday as a surface
ridge builds into the region. Despite decreasing clouds, the colder
northerly winds will keep temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s for
highs.

Even though the surface ridge will weaken Friday night with surface
flow backing to the west to southwest once again, lows will still
drop off into the upper 30s to low 40s, but still a bit above normal
for this time of year.

Byrd
&&

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A strong area of low pressure will drop southeastward out of
western Canada into the Great Lakes region by this weekend. It
will drag a cold front into the area by Saturday night. This
boundary should pass through dry, with very weak low-level
convergence along it and the better mid/upper level forcing for
ascent residing across the Great Lakes. In the meantime,
temperatures will warm up on Saturday with highs in the 60s.

As decent CAA moves in Saturday night, temperatures will be below
normal for the last half of the weekend and into early next week.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s, while highs
on Monday will be in the 40s. Expect below freezing temperatures
area wide Sunday night and Monday night with lows in the 20s.

Temperatures will warm back above normal by the middle next week
with the next chance of rain holding off until Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Cold front has moved south of KUIN and has just moved through
KCOU as of 23z Thursday. The front will move through KJEF by 00z
Friday, while it will move through St. Louis metro area between
03z-04z Friday. As the front moves through winds will veer to the
north. Otherwise, lingering showers and storms through 04z Friday
for TAF sites along I-70. Then MVFR ceilings which have moved into
KUIN, will continue to sink south into remainder of TAF sites by
03z-04z Friday.

As surface ridge builds in, ceilings will lift and scatter out
from north to south during the day on Friday, by 11z at KUIN and
by 16z-17z Friday at remainder of TAF sites.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
325 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-152030-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
325 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely through tonight. Some of these
thunderstorms could be severe capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening.

Byrd

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
628 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     Hail             Okawville               38.43N 89.55W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       Washington         IL   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
631 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     Hail             2 ENE Shrewsbury        38.59N 90.29W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       St. Louis City     MO   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report, quarters reported at Hampton
            Ave and I-44 in St. Louis City.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
632 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     Hail             2 SSE Saint Louis       38.61N 90.23W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       St. Louis City     MO   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report, quarter sized hail reported
            at I-44 and Jefferson Ave in St. Louis City.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
633 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     Hail             1 N Irving              39.22N 89.41W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       Montgomery         IL   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
636 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NNE Warrenton         38.86N 91.13W
03/14/2024  E63 MPH          Warren             MO   Trained Spotter

            Time estimated from radar. Measured wind
            gust. Four inch tree branches down, eleven
            inch plum tree down across roadway.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
638 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     Hail             1 SE Mascoutah          38.50N 89.79W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       St. Clair          IL   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report, quarter sized hail at the
            corner of E Harnett St and N Jefferson St.

&&

MRM