Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS St. Louis, MO

317 
WWUS53 KLSX 141342
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
842 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MOC027-073-139-151-141415-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-240314T1415Z/
Montgomery MO-Callaway MO-Osage MO-Gasconade MO-
842 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN CALLAWAY...NORTHEASTERN
OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN GASCONADE COUNTIES...

At 841 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Chamois, moving
east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Montgomery, southeastern Callaway, northeastern Osage
and northwestern Gasconade Counties, including the following
locations... Gasconade, Steedman, Portland, Americus, Morrison, and
Rhineland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 9186 3870 9185 3883 9146 3861 9146
      3859 9164
TIME...MOT...LOC 1341Z 271DEG 54KT 3861 9175 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Jaja

830 
WWUS53 KLSX 141351
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
851 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MOC027-151-141401-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-240314T1415Z/
Callaway MO-Osage MO-
851 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALLAWAY AND
NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until noon CDT for
central and east central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 9164 3883 9146 3861 9146 3859 9164
      3870 9164 3870 9165 3875 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1351Z 253DEG 54KT 3865 9159 

$$

MOC073-139-141415-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-240314T1415Z/
Montgomery MO-Gasconade MO-
851 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHWESTERN GASCONADE COUNTIES...

At 851 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles northwest of
Swiss, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Montgomery and northwestern Gasconade Counties,
including the following locations... Gasconade, Americus, Morrison,
and Rhineland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 9164 3883 9146 3861 9146 3859 9164
      3870 9164 3870 9165 3875 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1351Z 253DEG 54KT 3865 9159 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Jaja

338 
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
857 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MOC073-139-141406-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-240314T1415Z/
Montgomery MO-Gasconade MO-
857 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHWESTERN GASCONADE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until noon CDT for
central and east central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 9164 3883 9146 3861 9146 3859 9164
      3870 9164 3870 9165 3875 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1355Z 241DEG 53KT 3869 9149 

$$

Jaja

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
642 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will continue to move across the area through mid morning,
  mainly along and north of I-70. A few of these storms over
  central and northeast Missouri into west central Missouri could
  produce large hail and damaging winds.

-Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
 and evening (60 to 90 percent chance) over much of the area. The
 strongest of these storms will have the potential to produce hail
 larger than golfballs, damaging winds, and possible tornadoes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The latest surface analysis is showing a surface low just west of
Kansas City with a warm front extending east-northeastward across
northern Missouri into central Illinois.  A cold front extended
southwest into Oklahoma.   Latest regional radar is showing a train
of thunderstorms moving across northern Missouri with an additional
line of thunderstorms moving northeast out of Kansas into southwest
Missouri.  The latest runs of the CAMS including the HRRR are
showing the first line moving quickly across the CWA before sunrise,
while the second line will move across the central CWA between 11-
15Z posing an additional threat for wind and hail.  All of this
convection will likely push a outflow boundary into the southern
part of the CWA this morning, which may push a bit back to the north
by this afternoon in response to the strong southwesterly low level
flow.  Do still expect thunderstorm development along the this
boundary by mid afternoon as RAP/NAM are showing MLCAPEs near 2000
J/kg under a weakening cap underneath a right entrance region of a
upper level jet streak.  The convective mode looks thunderstorms
will likely start out as supercells which quickly become severe
capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and possible
tornadoes.  There will likely then be a quick transition to mixed
modes by late afternoon and evening as the shear vector becomes
aligned with the boundary. The HRRR is showing convection becoming
more numerous from around the metro and south and east before
shifting into the southern and eastern parts of the CWA overnight.

Another warm day is expected, though temperatures may be tempered
early today by the clouds and thunderstorms before there is some
recovery early this afternoon.  Temperatures will start to drop late
tonight behind the front with highs 15-20 degrees cooler tomorrow.

Britt

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Looks like a dry weekend, but a secondary front will make Sunday
cooler than Saturday.  Both Sunday night and Monday night look like
they will have lows in the 20s over much of the area.  Temperatures
will warm back above normal by the middle next week with the next
chance of rain holding off until Wednesday night and Thursday.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible through
this evening with the most likely times to affect each terminal
to be at UIN through 14Z and again 17-22Z, at COU/JEF between
through 14Z and again 21-01Z, and the St. Louis metro sites
between 13-15Z and 22-02Z. The strongest storms will have the
potential to have MVFR and possible IFR visibilities and ceilings
in brief heavy downpours and well as possible hail and wind gusts
over 35 knots. These windows may still shift depending on when
the thunderstorms develop again later today. In addition, a cold
front will move through the terminals tonight causing winds to
turn out of the north late in the period. Ceilings will also fall
into the low MVFR range tonight at UIN and the St. Louis metro TAF
sites.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
458 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-151000-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
458 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely through tonight. Some of these
thunderstorms could be severe capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through this evening.

Britt

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
401 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW La Grange          40.04N 91.51W
03/14/2024                   Lewis              MO   911 Call Center

            Large tree down. Diameter unknown.

&&

Pfahler