Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS St. Louis, MO

604 
WWUS53 KLSX 142251
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
551 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MOC071-073-139-219-142330-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-240314T2330Z/
Montgomery MO-Franklin MO-Warren MO-Gasconade MO-
551 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...WARREN AND
NORTHEASTERN GASCONADE COUNTIES...

At 551 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Swiss, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Warrenton, Wright City, Hermann, New Haven, Marthasville,
Jonesburg, Truesdale, Innsbrook, Swiss, Big Spring, Treloar, Dutzow,
Foristell, Gasconade, Berger, High Hill, Leslie, Rhineland, and
McKittrick.

This also includes Deutschheim Historic Site.
 
This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 179 and 200.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for east central
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
St Louis.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 9154 3889 9145 3900 9127 3899 9126
      3899 9119 3893 9119 3893 9111 3887 9110
      3887 9096 3862 9097 3853 9096 3840 9128
      3866 9160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 241DEG 44KT 3860 9139 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Gosselin

002 
WWUS53 KLSX 142312
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
612 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MOC073-142321-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-240314T2330Z/
Gasconade MO-
612 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN GASCONADE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for east central
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 9145 3900 9127 3899 9126 3899 9119
      3893 9119 3893 9111 3887 9110 3887 9096
      3862 9097 3853 9096 3853 9106 3860 9125
      3870 9136 3874 9139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 241DEG 44KT 3872 9110 

$$

MOC071-139-219-142330-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-240314T2330Z/
Montgomery MO-Franklin MO-Warren MO-
612 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND WARREN
COUNTIES...

At 611 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Innsbrook,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Warrenton, Wright City, New Haven, Marthasville,
Jonesburg, Truesdale, Innsbrook, Treloar, Dutzow, Foristell, Berger,
High Hill, and Holstein.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 179 and 200.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for east central
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
St Louis.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 9145 3900 9127 3899 9126 3899 9119
      3893 9119 3893 9111 3887 9110 3887 9096
      3862 9097 3853 9096 3853 9106 3860 9125
      3870 9136 3874 9139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 241DEG 44KT 3872 9110 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Gosselin

630 
WWUS53 KLSX 142319
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
619 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MOC071-142329-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-240314T2330Z/
Franklin MO-
619 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for east central
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 9127 3899 9126 3899 9119 3893 9119
      3893 9111 3887 9110 3887 9096 3862 9097
      3855 9097 3858 9101 3862 9102 3868 9116
      3879 9131 3889 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 241DEG 44KT 3877 9099 

$$

MOC139-219-142330-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-240314T2330Z/
Montgomery MO-Warren MO-
619 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND WARREN COUNTIES...

At 619 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Innsbrook,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Warrenton, Wright City, Marthasville, Jonesburg, Truesdale,
Innsbrook, Dutzow, and Foristell.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 183 and 200.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for east central
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
St Louis.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 9127 3899 9126 3899 9119 3893 9119
      3893 9111 3887 9110 3887 9096 3862 9097
      3855 9097 3858 9101 3862 9102 3868 9116
      3879 9131 3889 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 241DEG 44KT 3877 9099 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Gosselin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
303 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Thunderstorms are expected through this evening (60 to 80 percent
 chance) across much of the area. There is a threat that some of these
 thunderstorms will become strong to severe with hazards of very
 large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two possible.

-Expect near or slightly above normal temperatures Friday and
 Saturday, then a cool down on Sunday and Monday after a dry cold
 front moves through Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The atmosphere ahead of the cold front has destabilized once
again with activity beginning to develop in the warm sector as of
19z. The latest surface analysis shows the outflow boundary
beginning to retreat back to the north, and currently extends from
surface low near MCI southeastward to near Jefferson City, then
eastward to the southern sections of the St. Louis metro area.
Latest RAP analysis is showing MLCAPEs near 2000 J/kg with no cap
left underneath a right entrance region of an upper level jet
streak. This instability combined with deep 0 to 6km bulk shear of
50-60kts, as well as 0-3km SRH around 200 to 250, indicates that
storm development will initially start off as supercellular.
Currently thunderstorms that are developing in southwestern MO
will race off to the northeast into central/east central/southeast
Missouri this afternoon. As some of the storms approach the
outflow boundary, winds are backed to the southeast on the north
side of it, thus this will increase the "spin" in the lowest
levels of the atmosphere and increase the likelihood of
tornadogenesis with any supercell that crosses it. Along with the
tornado threat, very large hail, baseball size or larger, and
damaging winds will also be likely with any severe thunderstorm.

By late this afternoon and evening, the shear vector will become
aligned with the boundary, thus will likely see a quick transition
to a mixed mode. The latest HRRR run continues to show the storms
will become more numerous along the I-70 corridor in IL and I-44
corridor in MO by 00z Friday and slide south, exiting the region
between 03z and 06z Friday.

Dry and near normal temperatures are expected on Friday as a surface
ridge builds into the region. Despite decreasing clouds, the colder
northerly winds will keep temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s for
highs.

Even though the surface ridge will weaken Friday night with surface
flow backing to the west to southwest once again, lows will still
drop off into the upper 30s to low 40s, but still a bit above normal
for this time of year.

Byrd
&&

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A strong area of low pressure will drop southeastward out of
western Canada into the Great Lakes region by this weekend. It
will drag a cold front into the area by Saturday night. This
boundary should pass through dry, with very weak low-level
convergence along it and the better mid/upper level forcing for
ascent residing across the Great Lakes. In the meantime,
temperatures will warm up on Saturday with highs in the 60s.

As decent CAA moves in Saturday night, temperatures will be below
normal for the last half of the weekend and into early next week.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s, while highs
on Monday will be in the 40s. Expect below freezing temperatures
area wide Sunday night and Monday night with lows in the 20s.

Temperatures will warm back above normal by the middle next week
with the next chance of rain holding off until Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Atmosphere in process of recovering from early morning activity
with storms expected to develop by 21z, especially for TAF sites
along I-70 corridor. Added tempo groups for this area between 21z
Thursday and 01z Friday with MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
Otherwise, rain will taper off as cold front moves through. It
will move through KUIN by 19z, KCOU/KJEF by 21z, and St. Louis
metro area by 03z Friday. In the meantime, expect gusty south
winds which will veer to the west then north with cold frontal
passage. Ceilings will lower to MVFR on back side of cold front
eventually lifting and scattering out by 11z Friday at KUIN, by
15z-16z at KCOU/KJEF, and by 17z Friday in the St. Louis metro
area.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
325 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-152030-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
325 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely through tonight. Some of these
thunderstorms could be severe capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening.

Byrd

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
529 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     Hail             Arnold                  38.43N 90.37W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       Jefferson          MO   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
530 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     Hail             Warrenton               38.82N 91.14W
03/14/2024  E3.00 inch       Warren             MO   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
532 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     Hail             Lake Saint Louis        38.79N 90.78W
03/14/2024  E2.75 inch       St. Charles        MO   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
533 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     Hail             1 NE Sunset Hills       38.55N 90.40W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       St. Louis          MO   Public

&&

JPG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
538 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     Hail             1 N Fulton              38.87N 91.95W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       Callaway           MO   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report.

&&

MRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service St Louis MO
544 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     Hail             3 SSE Sunset Hills      38.50N 90.38W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       St. Louis          MO   Public

            Delayed report, quarter sized hail at Butler
            Hill Road and Tesson Ferry.

&&

MRM