River Flood Warning 110, NWS Atlanta, GA

519 
WGUS82 KFFC 130047
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
747 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Little River at Newborn Road near Newborn affecting Newton and 
  Morgan Counties.

GAC211-217-130200-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0110.000000T0000Z-240213T0047Z/
/NWBG1.1.ER.240212T2031Z.240212T2031Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
747 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Little River at Newborn Road near Newborn.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM EST Monday the stage was 11.5 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3359 8374 3363 8368 3354 8358 3349 8363


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
249 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

Highlights:

 - Isolated thunderstorms possible through early evening along and
   ahead of approaching cold front.

 - Winds will shift to the W-NW and rapidly increase behind the
   front, with a Wind Advisory in effect for N and N Central GA.

Widespread rain is shifting ENE and has cleared the Atlanta metro
area. However, another broken line of showers will be sweeping
across the area behind the more widespread rain. Back behind the
broken line of showers, more spotty shower and thunderstorm
activity has been developing closer to the mid/upper level low
over central and N AL. There are some breaks in the cloud cover in
this area, and this, coupled with colder air aloft, are increasing
instability. Expect at least some isolated thunderstorm activity
to make it into the area later this afternoon and early this
evening. The Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 PM, but it may
need to be dropped early.

As the front sweeps across, winds will shift to W-NW and rapidly
increase in response to the deepening surface low to the N.
Widespread gusts over 35 mph are possible across the N 2/3 of the
area (Wind Advisory criteria), while wind gusts across the
remaining 1/3 of the area will be close. Will be hoisting a Wind
Advisory shortly, a valid time of 00-09Z in the NW corner of the
state, 03-18Z in the NE corner, and 03-12Z elsewhere. Winds in the
NE mountains may flirt with High Wind Warning criteria, but this
will be an easy upgrade in that segment if needed.

After the warm and muggy weather of the past few days, low
temperatures and gusty winds will be a slap in the face to those
venturing out on Tuesday. Lows Tuesday morning will range from
near 30 across the NE mountains to the mid 40s across the extreme
SE portion of the area. A light dusting of snow is possible across
the highest elevations of the NE mountains, but little to no
accumulation is expected.

Daytime high temperatures will rebound on Tuesday, ranging from
the mid 40s in the NE mountains to near 60 in the S. Winds will be
gradually decreasing, but gusts will likely continue well into the
afternoon. Low temperatures Wednesday morning are expected to
mostly range from the lower to mid 30s across the area. /SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

Global ensemble guidance depicts mid-/upper-level flow ranging from
weak ridging to quasi-zonal through Friday. High pressure and dry
conditions will prevail at the surface. High temperatures will
generally be in the 60s outside of the higher terrain of north
Georgia and low temperatures will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

The global ensembles depict a transition to troughing in the mid-
/upper-level flow this weekend. The GEFS depicts the development of
a surface low associated with the mid-/upper-level forcing while the
EPS does not depict a surface response. As a result, the GEFS
suggests greater moisture return across north and central Georgia
than does the EPS, but even the GEFS guidance keeps mean dew points
in the mid-40s to lower 50s. The lack of a well-defined low pressure
system and/or warm sector will likely limit instability, which is
reflected in essentially zero chance of GEFS-progged CAPE exceeding
1000 J/kg as well as GEFS ensemble members depicting Supercell
Composite Parameter (SCP) values of zero. Putting all of this
together, scattered showers are expected to begin late Friday night
into early Saturday morning and continue through Saturday evening.
Continuing the previous forecast trend of no thunder.

High pressure building in behind this quickly-passing rain event
will usher in cooler, drier air, evidenced by Sunday morning low
temperatures in the upper 20s to mid-30s across much of the area.
High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 50s, with 40s in the
mountains.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

Thunderstorm activity has settled down across the area as
instability has decreased. There is a broken line of showers and
storms farther W over Central AL near the cold front and surface low.
This line will continue to progress, bringing the threat of at least
isolated tstms to the Atlanta metro area around the 21-23Z time
frame. The ECMWF and HRRR both depict this, and the proximity of the
approaching mid/upper low and potential for some breaks in the cloud
cover support another mention of thunder. Otherwise, the existing
forecast remains basically on track. Winds at ATL are still expected
to shift to SW around 00Z. Conditions will gradually improve
overnight, with VFR returning late tonight at most locations.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium for afternoon tstm activity and timing, medium to high
for ceilings and visibilities, and high for winds.

SEC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

Several rivers are above flood stage or forecast to rise above
flood stage. Most of the rivers are forecast to crest by later
today or on Tuesday. Widespread moderate to heavy rains are
presently shifting E out of the area, with more scattered light
shower activity expected prior to frontal passage. However, any
thunderstorm activity has the potential to bring additional,
albeit brief, heavy rainfall. Dry weather is forecast to return on
Tuesday. /SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  57  34  62 /  40   0   0   0
Atlanta         38  54  36  61 /  20   0   0   0
Blairsville     33  49  30  58 /  80   0   0   0
Cartersville    35  54  30  61 /  30   0   0   0
Columbus        41  59  35  65 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     39  54  35  61 /  60   0   0   0
Macon           42  59  36  64 /  20   0   0   0
Rome            36  55  31  62 /  30   0   0   0
Peachtree City  38  55  33  62 /  20   0   0   0
Vidalia         45  61  38  63 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>085-089>097.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
GAZ001>005-011-012-019.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
GAZ006>009-013>016.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
GAZ020>025-027-030>039-041>062-074>076.

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...SEC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
905 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-130900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
905 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Periods of rain will continue through early afternoon, especially
areas east of I-85. Fortunately, widespread heavy rainfall will be
coming to an end, but an additional round of showers and storms is
expected later today as the entire storm system moves across the
area. Flood warnings are in effect for some rivers and streams
that will continue rise and respond to the heavy rainfall.

The overall severe weather risk is low today, but the potential
for a few stronger storms later today remains possible, mainly
across parts of central Georgia, south of Atlanta. Localized wind
damage is the main threat if any storms do become strong to
marginally severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1049 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     Flash Flood      2 E Big Springs         33.00N 84.87W
02/12/2024                   Troup              GA   Emergency Mngr

            Dallas Mill Rd flooded as Big Springs Creek
            overflowed its banks.

&&

VSS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1053 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     Flash Flood      1 SSE Texas             33.22N 85.19W
02/12/2024                   Heard              GA   Emergency Mngr

            Lipham road flooded and bridge washed out as
            Brush Creek overflowed its banks.

&&

VSS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1108 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NE Milledgeville      33.11N 83.19W
02/12/2024  E40 MPH          Baldwin            GA   Emergency Mngr

            2 trees across Lake Laurel Rd at Black
            Springs Rd.

&&

VSS