River Flood Warning 101, NWS Atlanta, GA

296 
WGUS82 KFFC 122107
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
407 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Oconee River near Penfield affecting Oconee, Greene and 
  Oglethorpe Counties.

  Oconee River at Milledgeville affecting Wilkinson, Washington and 
  Baldwin Counties.

  Oconee River at Dublin affecting Wilkinson, Johnson, Washington 
  and Laurens Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 415 AM EST.

&&

GAC133-219-221-130915-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0103.240212T2107Z-240215T2024Z/
/PNFG1.1.ER.240212T2030Z.240214T1800Z.240215T1424Z.NO/
407 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Oconee River near Penfield.

* WHEN...From this afternoon to Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 17 feet, Minor flooding continues to expand into 
  fields...woodlands and pastures near the river. The water level is 
  very close to Ward Road on the right bank. Flood waters will be 
  approaching irrigation systems and they may need to be moved to 
  higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:00 PM EST Monday the stage was 12.9 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage late this
    afternoon to 14.8 feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall
    early tomorrow afternoon. It will rise to 16.1 feet early
    Wednesday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late
    Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 13 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3364 8325 3364 8333 3383 8333 3384 8326


$$

GAC009-303-319-130915-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0101.240212T2109Z-240215T1012Z/
/MLGG1.1.ER.240212T2109Z.240213T0600Z.240215T0412Z.NO/
407 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Oconee River at Milledgeville.

* WHEN...Until early Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 30.0 feet, Minor flooding continues to expand further 
  into the woodlands and pasture upstream and downstream from the 
  gage near the Georgia Highway 22 and 24 bridge. Fishing Creek 
  backs up and a few buildings along the creek will be flooded. Also 
  Tanyard Branch Stream between East Thomas and East Charleston 
  Streets in Milledgeville will flood. Sinclair Dam will likely have 
  four to five gates open to reach this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:45 PM EST Monday the stage was 21.3 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late this afternoon to a crest of 29.1 feet just after
    midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage late
    Wednesday evening.
  - Flood stage is 22 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3313 8325 3314 8317 3308 8317 3302 8313
      3297 8316 3304 8324


$$

GAC167-175-303-319-130915-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0104.240214T2040Z-000000T0000Z/
/DBNG1.1.ER.240214T2040Z.240217T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
407 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL 
FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Oconee River at Dublin.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 25 feet, Moderate flooding begins. Significant 
  flooding occurs in the woodlands and agricultural areas upstream 
  and downstream from the gage on U.S. Highway 80. The flood waters 
  will be around two feet deep on Rex Miller Road...downstream left 
  bank of the Highway 80 bridge and Old River Lane...upstream and 
  left bank from the bridge. Some of the homes on these roads will 
  begin to experience flooding.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:45 PM EST Monday the stage was 12.1 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    Wednesday afternoon and continue rising to a crest of 24.7
    feet Saturday morning.
  - Flood stage is 21 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3265 8298 3267 8289 3257 8284 3238 8268
      3236 8277 3254 8293


$$

364 
WGUS82 KFFC 130051
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
751 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Oconee River at Milledgeville affecting Baldwin, Wilkinson and 
  Washington Counties.

For the Oconee River Basin...including Penfield, Milledgeville, 
Oconee, Oconee, McIntyre, Irwinton, Oconee, Dublin, Mount Vernon...
Moderate flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued Tuesday morning at 800 AM EST.

&&

GAC009-303-319-131300-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0101.000000T0000Z-240215T1012Z/
/MLGG1.1.ER.240212T2059Z.240213T0600Z.240215T0412Z.NO/
751 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Oconee River at Milledgeville.

* WHEN...Until early Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 30.0 feet, Minor flooding continues to expand further 
  into the woodlands and pasture upstream and downstream from the 
  gage near the Georgia Highway 22 and 24 bridge. Fishing Creek 
  backs up and a few buildings along the creek will be flooded. Also 
  Tanyard Branch Stream between East Thomas and East Charleston 
  Streets in Milledgeville will flood. Sinclair Dam will likely have 
  four to five gates open to reach this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:15 PM EST Monday the stage was 26.9 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 7:15 PM EST Monday was 26.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 29.1
    feet after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood
    stage late Wednesday evening.
  - Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    30.6 feet on 03/16/1976.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8325 3314 8317 3308 8317 3302 8313
      3297 8316 3304 8324


$$

697 
WGUS82 KFFC 130727
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
227 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Oconee River at Milledgeville affecting Baldwin, Wilkinson and 
  Washington Counties.

For the Oconee River Basin...including Penfield, Milledgeville, 
Oconee, Oconee, McIntyre, Irwinton, Oconee, Dublin, Mount Vernon...
Moderate flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued this afternoon at 300 PM EST.

&&

GAC009-303-319-132000-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0101.000000T0000Z-240215T0525Z/
/MLGG1.1.ER.240212T2059Z.240213T1200Z.240214T2325Z.NO/
227 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Oconee River at Milledgeville.

* WHEN...Until early Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 30 feet, Minor flooding continues to expand further 
  into the woodlands and pasture upstream and downstream from the 
  gage near the Georgia Highway 22 and 24 bridge. Fishing Creek 
  backs up and a few buildings along the creek will be flooded. Also 
  Tanyard Branch Stream between East Thomas and East Charleston 
  Streets in Milledgeville will flood. Sinclair Dam will likely have 
  four to five gates open to reach this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:00 AM EST Tuesday the stage was 29.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 29.7
    feet this morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    tomorrow evening.
  - Flood stage is 22 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8325 3314 8317 3308 8317 3302 8313
      3297 8316 3304 8324


$$

822 
WGUS82 KFFC 131703
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1203 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Oconee River near Penfield affecting Greene, Oconee and 
  Oglethorpe Counties.

  Oconee River at Dublin affecting Laurens, Wilkinson, Washington 
  and Johnson Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Oconee River near Oconee affecting Wilkinson, Washington and 
  Johnson Counties.

  Oconee River at Milledgeville affecting Baldwin, Wilkinson and 
  Washington Counties.

  Oconee River at Avant Mine near Oconee affecting Wilkinson and 
  Washington Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 1215 AM EST.

&&

GAC133-219-221-140515-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0103.000000T0000Z-240216T0400Z/
/PNFG1.1.ER.240212T2030Z.240213T1445Z.240215T2200Z.NO/
1203 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding will continue.

* WHERE...Oconee River near Penfield.

* WHEN...Until late Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 17 feet, Minor flooding continues to expand into 
  fields...woodlands and pastures near the river. The water level is 
  very close to Ward Road on the right bank. Flood waters will be 
  approaching irrigation systems and they may need to be moved to 
  higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM EST Tuesday the stage was 16.6 feet and steady.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    Thursday afternoon and continue falling to 8.1 feet Sunday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 13 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3364 8325 3364 8333 3383 8333 3384 8326


$$

GAC167-303-319-140515-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0102.000000T0000Z-240218T0835Z/
/OCNG1.2.ER.240213T1930Z.240215T1800Z.240218T0234Z.NO/
1203 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Oconee River near Oconee.

* WHEN...Until early Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 23 feet, Moderate flooding continues. Portions of the 
  Old Balls Ferry Road leading to the boat ramp becomes flooded with 
  a foot of water or more.  The entire dirt parking lot near the 
  boat ramp is under three to five feet of water. Extensive flooding 
  of the woodlands near the river continues.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:45 AM EST Tuesday the stage was 16.1 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this afternoon to a crest of 22.4 feet early Thursday
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late Saturday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 17 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3284 8303 3288 8298 3279 8292 3267 8289
      3265 8298 3278 8300


$$

GAC009-303-319-140515-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0101.000000T0000Z-240214T1947Z/
/MLGG1.1.ER.240212T2059Z.240213T0900Z.240214T1347Z.NO/
1203 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding will continue.

* WHERE...Oconee River at Milledgeville.

* WHEN...Until early tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 30 feet, Minor flooding continues to expand further 
  into the woodlands and pasture upstream and downstream from the 
  gage near the Georgia Highway 22 and 24 bridge. Fishing Creek 
  backs up and a few buildings along the creek will be flooded. Also 
  Tanyard Branch Stream between East Thomas and East Charleston 
  Streets in Milledgeville will flood. Sinclair Dam will likely have 
  four to five gates open to reach this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:30 AM EST Tuesday the stage was 28.9 feet and falling.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:30 AM EST Tuesday was 29.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 29.2
    feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
    tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 22 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3313 8325 3314 8317 3308 8317 3302 8313
      3297 8316 3304 8324


$$

GAC167-175-303-319-140515-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0104.240216T0234Z-000000T0000Z/
/DBNG1.1.ER.240216T0234Z.240217T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1203 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Oconee River at Dublin.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 24 feet, Minor flooding spreads further into the 
  woodlands and agricultural areas near the river upstream and 
  downstream from the gage on U.S. Highway 80. The flood waters will 
  be around one foot deep on Rex Miller Road...downstream left bank 
  of the Highway 80 bridge and Old River Lane...upstream and left 
  bank from the bridge. The water level will approach the 
  foundations of a few homes on these roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:45 AM EST Tuesday the stage was 15.6 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late Thursday evening and continue rising to a crest of 23.8
    feet early Saturday afternoon before falling next week.
  - Flood stage is 21 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3265 8298 3267 8289 3257 8284 3238 8268
      3236 8277 3254 8293


$$

GAC303-319-140515-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0118.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OCOG1.1.ER.240213T0917Z.240213T1645Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1203 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Oconee River at Avant Mine near Oconee.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 19 feet, Minor flooding continues to expand into the 
  woodlands and wetlands along the river upstream and downstream 
  from a gage located by a dirt boat ramp on the west side of Avant 
  Mine off Adams Road in Washington County. The water level will 
  begin to surround the elevated USGS gage house.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:45 AM EST Tuesday the stage was 19.4 feet and rising
    slowly.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 18 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3297 8316 3302 8313 3296 8304 3288 8298
      3284 8303 3292 8311


$$

764 
WGUS82 KFFC 140345
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1045 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Oconee River at Milledgeville affecting Baldwin, Washington and 
  Wilkinson Counties.

For the Oconee River Basin...including Milledgeville, Oconee...
Moderate flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued Wednesday morning at 1045 AM EST.

&&

GAC009-303-319-141545-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0101.000000T0000Z-240215T0456Z/
/MLGG1.1.ER.240212T2059Z.240213T0900Z.240214T2256Z.NO/
1045 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding will continue.

* WHERE...Oconee River at Milledgeville.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 27 feet, Minor flooding continues in the woodlands 
  and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage located around 
  one half mile upstream from the Georgia Highway 22 and 24 bridge. 
  The parking lot and the Oconee River Greenway Park just downstream 
  from the bridge will be completely flooded with water several feet 
  deep. Sinclair Dam will have three to four gates open to reach 
  this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:15 PM EST Tuesday the stage was 25.8 feet and falling.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    tomorrow afternoon and continue falling to 12.2 feet Sunday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 22 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3313 8325 3314 8317 3308 8317 3302 8313
      3297 8316 3304 8324


$$

773 
WGUS82 KFFC 141047
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
547 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Oconee River at Milledgeville affecting Washington, Wilkinson and 
  Baldwin Counties.

For the Oconee River Basin...including Penfield, Milledgeville, 
Oconee, Oconee, McIntyre, Irwinton, Oconee, Dublin, Mount Vernon...
Moderate flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued this evening at 600 PM EST.

&&

GAC009-303-319-142300-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0101.000000T0000Z-240215T0456Z/
/MLGG1.1.ER.240212T2059Z.240213T0900Z.240214T2256Z.NO/
547 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Oconee River at Milledgeville.

* WHEN...Until late this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 24 feet, Minor flooding continues upstream and 
  downstream from the gage located around one half mile upstream 
  from the Georgia Highway 22 and 24 bridge. The parking lot and 
  portions of the Oconee River Greenway Park just downstream from 
  the bridge will be flooded. Low lying areas of woodlands and 
  pasture near the river will be flooded one to two feet deep. 
  Sinclair Dam will likely have two gates open to reach this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:15 AM EST Wednesday the stage was 25.2 feet and falling.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late this afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 22 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8325 3314 8317 3308 8317 3302 8313
      3297 8316 3304 8324


$$

505 
WGUS82 KFFC 141630
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1130 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Oconee River at Milledgeville affecting Wilkinson, Baldwin and 
  Washington Counties.

For the Oconee River Basin...including Penfield, Milledgeville, 
Oconee, Oconee, McIntyre, Irwinton, Oconee, Dublin, Mount Vernon...
Moderate flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued this evening at 745 PM EST.

&&

GAC009-303-319-150045-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0101.000000T0000Z-240215T0036Z/
/MLGG1.1.ER.240212T2059Z.240213T0900Z.240214T1836Z.NO/
1130 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Oconee River at Milledgeville.

* WHEN...Until this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding 
  occurs upstream and downstream from the gage located around one 
  half mile upstream from the Georgia Highway 22 and 24 bridge. Low 
  lying portions of woodlands and pasture in the natural flood plain 
  will begin to flood. This will include portions of the sidewalks 
  in the Oconee River Greenway Park just downstream from the bridge. 
  Sinclair Dam will have one to two gates open to reach this height.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:15 AM EST Wednesday the stage was 22.3 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:15 AM EST Wednesday was 28.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    this afternoon and continue falling to 10.7 feet Monday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    22.2 feet on 02/21/2020.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8325 3314 8317 3308 8317 3302 8313
      3297 8316 3304 8324


$$

951 
WGUS82 KFFC 141950
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Oconee River at Milledgeville affecting Baldwin, Washington and 
  Wilkinson Counties.

GAC009-303-319-142100-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0101.000000T0000Z-240214T1950Z/
/MLGG1.1.ER.240212T2059Z.240213T0900Z.240214T1720Z.NO/
250 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Oconee River at Milledgeville.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:30 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 21.6 feet and falling.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 10.7 feet Monday
    morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3313 8325 3314 8317 3308 8317 3302 8313
      3297 8316 3304 8324


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1009 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

Forecast remains on track. Recently refreshed the existing Flood
Watch. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely across
the SE half of the area (locally higher). Additional rains of 1 inch
plus remain possible across the NW half of the area. Best chance for
an isolated severe thunderstorm is across the extreme southern
portion of the area into the afternoon hours. Will be evaluating the
need for a Wind Advisory with the afternoon package. Previous
forecast package supported issuance for the NE mountains tonight and
Tuesday morning. /SEC

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

At a glance:

-Heavy Rain possible today. A Flood Watch is in effect for much of
north and central Georgia.

-Severe WX along and south of the I-20 corridor as a stationary
front lifts to the north.

Showers and thunderstorms are moving through the area primarily
across the central part of the CWA. Storms have been sub severe with
a few statements for small hail. Given the lack of the instability
along the axis, it will be hard pressed for these storms to generate
severe weather during the overnight time period. That story changes
slightly as the cold front approaches close to dawn. By the time the
sun starts to come up, a number of models are indicating the
possibility of an MCS approaching the CWA's border. These storms are
definitely likely, but given the conditions during the overnight
hours and the timing of the front it is unlikely that the
environment which lacks SB CAPE and has only moderate bulk shear
values will support a widespread severe weather outbreak. That being
a few storms may contain damaging winds and the outside chance of an
isolate tornado can't be ruled out.

The bigger concern will likely be the flash flooding potential. Rain
bands are expected to remain in the same general location through
the morning and into the afternoon. A few locations at the SW end of
the Flood Watch have already seen up to two inches of rain with more
on the way.

The whole system is expected to clear the area by 8 PM. Gusty winds
will likely settle in on the back side of the system as the pressure
gradient tightens as high pressure moves in and a Wind Advisory may
be needed but given how much we have going on this morning the day
shift will have an opportunity to take a closer look at this and
make a decision.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

At a glance:

-Cooler temperatures are expected this week and into next weekend.

-Another round of precip is possible for the southern part of the CWA

Dry conditions are anticipated to continue through mid week up until
next weekend. As another weak impulse in the subtropical jet will
bring rain to the far southern parts of the CWA. At this time it
looks like this will mostly be a rain event with not instability to
work with we've kept thunder out of the grids.

Temps are expected to be pleasantly in the upper 50s and low 60s in
the afternoon. Overnight lows may be close to freezing for the
northern part of the CWA through the long term.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

RA across the metro with a few TSRA possible after 12Z. TSRA will be
prevailing after 16Z as a line of storms lift north this morning.
IFR CIGS will continue until the front pushes the RA out after 00Z.
VIS could be less than 2SM at times in periods of heaviest RA and
TSRA. Winds out of the SE will go SW after 00Z with some gusts
exceeding 25kts as the storms clear the area.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium to High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  45  58  33 / 100  50   0   0
Atlanta         66  41  54  36 / 100  30   0   0
Blairsville     60  37  50  30 / 100  70   0   0
Cartersville    66  40  54  30 / 100  20   0   0
Columbus        71  44  59  35 / 100  10   0   0
Gainesville     63  40  55  34 / 100  50   0   0
Macon           70  47  59  35 / 100  40   0   0
Rome            67  39  55  31 / 100  20   0   0
Peachtree City  67  42  56  32 / 100  20   0   0
Vidalia         73  50  61  37 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>085-089>097.

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Vaughn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
905 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-130900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
905 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Periods of rain will continue through early afternoon, especially
areas east of I-85. Fortunately, widespread heavy rainfall will be
coming to an end, but an additional round of showers and storms is
expected later today as the entire storm system moves across the
area. Flood warnings are in effect for some rivers and streams
that will continue rise and respond to the heavy rainfall.

The overall severe weather risk is low today, but the potential
for a few stronger storms later today remains possible, mainly
across parts of central Georgia, south of Atlanta. Localized wind
damage is the main threat if any storms do become strong to
marginally severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
835 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

GAZ022-032>035-043>047-054-055-057-121430-
Fayette GA-Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-Henry GA-
South Fulton GA-North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Barrow GA-Cobb GA-
Clayton GA-DeKalb GA-
835 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...An area of heavy rainfall will impact portions of central Rockdale,
southwestern Barrow, DeKalb, north central Fayette, southwestern
Forsyth, central Cobb, northeastern Douglas, Gwinnett, northwestern
Henry, northwestern Walton, Clayton and Fulton Counties through 930
AM EST...

At 833 AM EST, an area of heavy rainfall over metro Atlanta was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
         in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Marietta, Douglasville, Lawrenceville, Decatur, Conyers,
Winder, Jonesboro, Peachtree Corners, City of South Fulton, Sandy
Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Smyrna, Dunwoody, East
Point, Duluth, Union City, and Sugar Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 8464 3408 8442 3417 8406 3404 8374
      3379 8378 3373 8389 3374 8391 3371 8391
      3360 8411 3351 8443 3366 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1333Z 241DEG 18KT 3380 8427

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
845 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

GAZ036>039-049>051-060>062-121445-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-Morgan GA-Putnam GA-Hancock GA-Warren GA-
Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-Oconee GA-Greene GA-
845 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...An area of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Oconee, Warren,
Morgan, central Putnam, northern Hancock, Clarke, Greene, Taliaferro,
Wilkes and Oglethorpe Counties through 945 AM EST...

At 842 AM EST, an area of heavy rainfall was centered on Greensboro
and was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
         in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Eatonton, Washington, Madison, Greensboro, Watkinsville, Warrenton,
Sparta, Crawfordville, Lexington, Athens, Union Point, Winterville,
Crawford, North High Shoals, Tignall, Bostwick, Arnoldsville,
Woodville, White Plains, and Siloam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3365 8249 3366 8251 3364 8256 3365 8258
      3361 8265 3345 8259 3330 8275 3321 8318
      3330 8343 3356 8361 3376 8355 3400 8339
      3402 8305 3404 8295 3398 8285 3399 8264
      3386 8261 3387 8257 3380 8258 3364 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 1342Z 245DEG 8KT 3365 8312

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH