River Flood Warning 100, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1009 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

Forecast remains on track. Recently refreshed the existing Flood
Watch. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely across
the SE half of the area (locally higher). Additional rains of 1 inch
plus remain possible across the NW half of the area. Best chance for
an isolated severe thunderstorm is across the extreme southern
portion of the area into the afternoon hours. Will be evaluating the
need for a Wind Advisory with the afternoon package. Previous
forecast package supported issuance for the NE mountains tonight and
Tuesday morning. /SEC

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

At a glance:

-Heavy Rain possible today. A Flood Watch is in effect for much of
north and central Georgia.

-Severe WX along and south of the I-20 corridor as a stationary
front lifts to the north.

Showers and thunderstorms are moving through the area primarily
across the central part of the CWA. Storms have been sub severe with
a few statements for small hail. Given the lack of the instability
along the axis, it will be hard pressed for these storms to generate
severe weather during the overnight time period. That story changes
slightly as the cold front approaches close to dawn. By the time the
sun starts to come up, a number of models are indicating the
possibility of an MCS approaching the CWA's border. These storms are
definitely likely, but given the conditions during the overnight
hours and the timing of the front it is unlikely that the
environment which lacks SB CAPE and has only moderate bulk shear
values will support a widespread severe weather outbreak. That being
a few storms may contain damaging winds and the outside chance of an
isolate tornado can't be ruled out.

The bigger concern will likely be the flash flooding potential. Rain
bands are expected to remain in the same general location through
the morning and into the afternoon. A few locations at the SW end of
the Flood Watch have already seen up to two inches of rain with more
on the way.

The whole system is expected to clear the area by 8 PM. Gusty winds
will likely settle in on the back side of the system as the pressure
gradient tightens as high pressure moves in and a Wind Advisory may
be needed but given how much we have going on this morning the day
shift will have an opportunity to take a closer look at this and
make a decision.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

At a glance:

-Cooler temperatures are expected this week and into next weekend.

-Another round of precip is possible for the southern part of the CWA

Dry conditions are anticipated to continue through mid week up until
next weekend. As another weak impulse in the subtropical jet will
bring rain to the far southern parts of the CWA. At this time it
looks like this will mostly be a rain event with not instability to
work with we've kept thunder out of the grids.

Temps are expected to be pleasantly in the upper 50s and low 60s in
the afternoon. Overnight lows may be close to freezing for the
northern part of the CWA through the long term.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

RA across the metro with a few TSRA possible after 12Z. TSRA will be
prevailing after 16Z as a line of storms lift north this morning.
IFR CIGS will continue until the front pushes the RA out after 00Z.
VIS could be less than 2SM at times in periods of heaviest RA and
TSRA. Winds out of the SE will go SW after 00Z with some gusts
exceeding 25kts as the storms clear the area.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium to High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  45  58  33 / 100  50   0   0
Atlanta         66  41  54  36 / 100  30   0   0
Blairsville     60  37  50  30 / 100  70   0   0
Cartersville    66  40  54  30 / 100  20   0   0
Columbus        71  44  59  35 / 100  10   0   0
Gainesville     63  40  55  34 / 100  50   0   0
Macon           70  47  59  35 / 100  40   0   0
Rome            67  39  55  31 / 100  20   0   0
Peachtree City  67  42  56  32 / 100  20   0   0
Vidalia         73  50  61  37 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>085-089>097.

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Vaughn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
905 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-130900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
905 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Periods of rain will continue through early afternoon, especially
areas east of I-85. Fortunately, widespread heavy rainfall will be
coming to an end, but an additional round of showers and storms is
expected later today as the entire storm system moves across the
area. Flood warnings are in effect for some rivers and streams
that will continue rise and respond to the heavy rainfall.

The overall severe weather risk is low today, but the potential
for a few stronger storms later today remains possible, mainly
across parts of central Georgia, south of Atlanta. Localized wind
damage is the main threat if any storms do become strong to
marginally severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
835 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

GAZ022-032>035-043>047-054-055-057-121430-
Fayette GA-Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-Henry GA-
South Fulton GA-North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Barrow GA-Cobb GA-
Clayton GA-DeKalb GA-
835 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...An area of heavy rainfall will impact portions of central Rockdale,
southwestern Barrow, DeKalb, north central Fayette, southwestern
Forsyth, central Cobb, northeastern Douglas, Gwinnett, northwestern
Henry, northwestern Walton, Clayton and Fulton Counties through 930
AM EST...

At 833 AM EST, an area of heavy rainfall over metro Atlanta was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
         in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Marietta, Douglasville, Lawrenceville, Decatur, Conyers,
Winder, Jonesboro, Peachtree Corners, City of South Fulton, Sandy
Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Smyrna, Dunwoody, East
Point, Duluth, Union City, and Sugar Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 8464 3408 8442 3417 8406 3404 8374
      3379 8378 3373 8389 3374 8391 3371 8391
      3360 8411 3351 8443 3366 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1333Z 241DEG 18KT 3380 8427

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
845 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

GAZ036>039-049>051-060>062-121445-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-Morgan GA-Putnam GA-Hancock GA-Warren GA-
Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-Oconee GA-Greene GA-
845 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...An area of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Oconee, Warren,
Morgan, central Putnam, northern Hancock, Clarke, Greene, Taliaferro,
Wilkes and Oglethorpe Counties through 945 AM EST...

At 842 AM EST, an area of heavy rainfall was centered on Greensboro
and was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
         in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Eatonton, Washington, Madison, Greensboro, Watkinsville, Warrenton,
Sparta, Crawfordville, Lexington, Athens, Union Point, Winterville,
Crawford, North High Shoals, Tignall, Bostwick, Arnoldsville,
Woodville, White Plains, and Siloam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3365 8249 3366 8251 3364 8256 3365 8258
      3361 8265 3345 8259 3330 8275 3321 8318
      3330 8343 3356 8361 3376 8355 3400 8339
      3402 8305 3404 8295 3398 8285 3399 8264
      3386 8261 3387 8257 3380 8258 3364 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 1342Z 245DEG 8KT 3365 8312

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH