Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Mobile, AL

313 
WWUS54 KMOB 190805
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
305 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

ALC023-190830-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0247.000000T0000Z-230619T0830Z/
Choctaw AL-
305 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM CDT
FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY...

At 304 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Snell, or 16
miles northwest of Butler, moving southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Lisman, Pennington, Gilbertown and Toxey. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for southwestern
Alabama.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3230 8794 3230 8798
      3228 8802 3218 8801 3214 8804 3209 8804
      3205 8812 3201 8811 3198 8806 3195 8808
      3197 8809 3195 8812 3193 8810 3194 8807
      3190 8813 3182 8818 3191 8847 3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0804Z 298DEG 44KT 3222 8846 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JLH

765 
WWUS54 KMOB 190831
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
331 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

ALC023-190841-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0247.000000T0000Z-230619T0830Z/
Choctaw AL-
331 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for southwestern
Alabama.

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3230 8794 3230 8798
      3228 8802 3218 8801 3214 8804 3209 8804
      3205 8812 3201 8811 3198 8806 3195 8808
      3197 8809 3195 8812 3193 8810 3194 8807
      3190 8813 3182 8818 3191 8847 3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0831Z 289DEG 39KT 3212 8814 

$$

JLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
241 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Latest water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough over much of
the eastern CONUS, with its closed low moving into the Ohio Valley.
At the surface, a stationary boundary extended from a weak surface
low over northwest Mississippi, south-southeastward through
southwest Alabama. Area radars show scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms over the TN Valley and extending southward through
central Mississippi and central Alabama. Despite some of this
activity clipping our northern counties, there hasn't been much in
the way of severe thunderstorms over our area given a more stable
airmass over portions of the CWA. This is expected to change as we
head into the predawn hours, with a cluster of storms over central
Mississippi expected to move into our western areas over the next
couple of hours.

Looking at the current conditions in place, most of the observation
sites along and west of the aforementioned areas have shown fairly
impressive WAA. The KMOB obs currently show 82/77, which is about 5
degrees higher than where we were a couple of hours ago. Further
north, we're seeing similar trends, with a corridor of mid-upper 70s
dewpoints extending into our Mississippi counties and our far
western Alabama counties. Meanwhile, hires guidance is relatively
consistent on surging a 40kt low level jet into our area as
shortwaves rotating around the base of the trough traverse the
area. All of this combines to an environment that will be
supportive of at least maintaining organized thunderstorms, and
with the low level jet increasing, we should see a continued
threat for damaging wind gusts as the cluster of storms to our
northwest moves into the area. The tornado potential also remains
in place, given the strength of the low level jet and VWP
hodographs showing decent curvature in the lower levels.

The upper trough is expected to amplify a bit through the day and
begin to shift slowly to the east with time. Unfortunately, we will
remain on the east side of this trough for at least another day,
with forecast guidance consistent on continuing the train of
shortwaves rotating around the base of the trough. Even with
convection expected early this morning, we should have some clearing
during the late morning through early afternoon, allowing whatever
stable layer that develops to quickly erode. The low level jet is
expected to re-intensify this afternoon as a stronger shortwave
moves through the area and will combine with a fairly unstable
airmass to lend another round of severe thunderstorms. The best
timing for this is generally during the afternoon and early
evening, though we should start to see any activity waning after
sunset. Given the parameters, all modes of severe thunderstorms
are possible.

In addition to the severe threat, we'll continue to see a flash
flooding threat extending through at least today. Observed rainfall
totals over the last 7 days is well above normal for much of the
area, and our PW values of around 2 inches is approximately the 90th
percentile for this time of year. Combined with the strengthening
LLJ and the boundary over the area, we may see training cells and
very intense rainfall rates. It's really difficult to pinpoint
where exactly these may set up, and as we've seen the last couple
of days, CAMs just don't have a good handle on the mesoscale.

So to summarize for today, scattered severe thunderstorms are
possible this morning, mainly across the western half of the area.
Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected during the
afternoon through early evening hours. And, flash flooding will
become a concern later today, especially over areas that see
training storms. Not to mention, our rip current risk remains high
for today.

Unfortunately, the threat for severe thunderstorms won't end there.
The upper closed low will begin to drift southward and into Alabama
during the day Tuesday. Forecast models differ on just how far south
this low will move, which will determine which, if any, areas will
see a break in severe storms. As of now, there's decent enough
agreement for at least the northern half of the area to be on the
more stable side of the system, though for the southern half, the
environment will be supportive once again for isolated to
scattered severe thunderstorms. The threat appears to be lesser
than we've seen the last few days, but it is still something to
monitor and remain aware.

Temperatures through the period will largely depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. Given the trends over the past couple of days,
and some slight height falls, expect temperatures to be similar,
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 70s. /73

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

A closed upper low will remain over Alabama, with its associated
surface low generally over the Florida Panhandle. This will help
bring an end to the endless waves of strong to severe thunderstorms
that the area has seen the last few days. However, given the forcing
associated with the upper low, rainfall chances will increase
through the day on Wednesday and then continue through the overnight
hours. The atmosphere will remain favorable for very heavy rainfall,
and and we see any training cells, flash flooding will once again be
a concern on Wednesday. /73

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

The aforementioned upper low will begin to move to the north on
Thursday and may begin to take a more western turn. Guidance is not
in the best agreement on exactly where this low will move, so the
long term period is a bit uncertain. Regardless, expect continued
rain chances through the weekend, with the best chances during
the day due to diurnally driven convection. Temperatures through
the period will be near climatological norms, with highs in the
upper 80s and lows in the lower 70s. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

A light to occasionally moderate west to southwest
flow is expected to persist into the middle of next week, and
cautionary headlines may be required at times. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms that develop over the marine
area will be capable of producing strong winds, hail, torrential
downpours, and waterspouts today. /73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      91  72  90  71  87  70  87  71 /  80  40  70  60  80  60  80  60
Pensacola   89  74  89  73  86  73  86  74 /  80  60  70  70  90  70  90  70
Destin      88  77  89  75  85  74  86  76 /  70  70  70  80  90  80  90  70
Evergreen   89  69  91  69  84  68  84  68 /  80  40  60  60  80  60  80  60
Waynesboro  90  69  91  69  85  68  86  69 /  60  30  50  30  60  30  60  40
Camden      87  68  89  67  81  67  83  67 /  70  30  50  40  70  50  70  50
Crestview   90  70  92  69  86  68  87  69 /  80  60  70  60  90  70  90  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1020 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Nymph                   31.34N 86.94W
06/18/2023                   Conecuh            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down.

&&

JLH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1022 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Lenox                   31.34N 87.19W
06/18/2023                   Conecuh            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down.

&&

JLH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1024 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Burnt Corn              31.55N 87.17W
06/18/2023                   Monroe             AL   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down and a car damaged by a fallen
            tree.

&&

JLH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1025 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Evergreen               31.43N 86.96W
06/18/2023                   Conecuh            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down on a house with damage.

&&

JLH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1031 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE Repton            31.40N 87.21W
06/18/2023                   Conecuh            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Trees and power lines down along Ryals road.

&&

JLH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1037 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     Flash Flood      1 WNW Lenox             31.34N 87.20W
06/18/2023                   Conecuh            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Severe road wash out at culvert along Tom
            Nall road (dirt road).

&&

JLH