Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Mobile, AL

082 
WGUS74 KMOB 191814
FFSMOB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
114 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

ALC003-097-192030-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230619T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Baldwin AL-Mobile AL-
114 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN BALDWIN AND SOUTHWESTERN MOBILE 
COUNTIES...

At 114 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 6 inches of rain have 
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 3 inches in 1 hour. 
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the 
warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tillmans Corner, Fairhope, Foley, Theodore, Grand Bay, 
  Robertsdale, Bayou La Batre, Point Clear, Magnolia Springs, Bon 
  Secour, Summerdale, Silverhill, Alabama Port, Coden, Battles 
  Wharf, Barnwell, Sunny Cove, Mon Louis, Faustinas and Bayleys 
  Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3061 8841 3060 8806 3057 8760 3027 8762
      3039 8840

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

MM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

A complex setup continues to evolve early this afternoon. A pair
of surface boundaries exists across the forecast area. The first
is situated from southeastern MS into far southwestern Baldwin
County where a supercell has recently latched onto over Mobile Bay
with a likely waterspout. The second boundary is over eastern
parts of the FL panhandle and stretches northwest, although some
convective moderation of this has occurred. A recent supercell
that moved over Destin and Choctawhatchee Bay was able to latch
onto this boundary and produce a tornado after passing Miramar
Beach. The environment remains conducive for severe weather as
some surface heating and low level moisture recovery is ongoing.

The current expectation is for the primary severe threat to be in
two areas. One is going to be associated with the current ongoing
convection over Mobile County and Mobile Bay as that activity
continues to shift east and bring the boundary east and northeast
as a warm front. Any storms that move along with this boundary
will have the potential to produce tornadoes in addition to
damaging winds and large hail over the next few hours. To the
northeast across I-65, a more conditional threat for severe
weather exists as the airmass continues to attempt to recover
with recent cloud breaks and gradual surface heating. The
environment here remains favorable for severe thunderstorms is
adequate surface based instability can manifest. Expect convection
to begin attempting to fire up in this area within the next few
hours. MM/25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 953 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023/

..New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

A complex setup exists this morning with several thunderstorms
ongoing. A couple surface boundaries exist, with one draped across
Escambia County, AL and the other across Stone/Perry counties,
draped to the southeast. There has already been rapid recovery of
the low level airmass behind the morning complex that pushed off
the AL coastline with temperatures and dewpoints warming into the
lower 80's over portions of southeastern MS in Hattiesburg and
Laurel. As you head further east to Mobile, we are still socked in
with rain cooled air. But then head to the east in the FL
panhandle and south-central AL the airmass is relatively untouched
with lower 80's surface temps and upper 70's dews. These areas are
under the greatest threat for severe weather within the next few
hours with ample shear and hodograph curvature as well as adequate
SBCAPE values exceeding 3,000j/kg. Expect a locally higher tornado
threat in the vicinity of the aforementioned boundaries in
addition to damaging winds and large hail. This is recently noted
with strong rotation being exhibited by the Escambia County,
Alabama supercell. MM/25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023/

.New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Ongoing thunderstorms impacting portions of the southeast will
continue to sag southward with time this morning. Latest trends
have this activity reaching the terminals within the next couple
of hours, though there is uncertainty as to whether they will hold
together. Greater confidence exists for the KMOB and KBFM
terminals, with lesser confidence for KJKA and KPNS. After a
break in the activity, another round of showers and thunderstorms
is expected to impact the terminals once again this afternoon.
Forecast guidance has struggled with the timing, and although
there is higher confidence that storms will occur, confidence on
timing is low. Therefore, only included a PROB30 group for late
this afternoon through the evening. Within any thunderstorm that
impacts a terminal, low visibilities and gusty, variable winds are
possible. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions will persist
through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Latest water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough over much of
the eastern CONUS, with its closed low moving into the Ohio Valley.
At the surface, a stationary boundary extended from a weak surface
low over northwest Mississippi, south-southeastward through
southwest Alabama. Area radars show scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms over the TN Valley and extending southward through
central Mississippi and central Alabama. Despite some of this
activity clipping our northern counties, there hasn't been much in
the way of severe thunderstorms over our area given a more stable
airmass over portions of the CWA. This is expected to change as we
head into the predawn hours, with a cluster of storms over central
Mississippi expected to move into our western areas over the next
couple of hours.

Looking at the current conditions in place, most of the observation
sites along and west of the aforementioned areas have shown fairly
impressive WAA. The KMOB obs currently show 82/77, which is about 5
degrees higher than where we were a couple of hours ago. Further
north, we're seeing similar trends, with a corridor of mid-upper 70s
dewpoints extending into our Mississippi counties and our far
western Alabama counties. Meanwhile, hires guidance is relatively
consistent on surging a 40kt low level jet into our area as
shortwaves rotating around the base of the trough traverse the
area. All of this combines to an environment that will be
supportive of at least maintaining organized thunderstorms, and
with the low level jet increasing, we should see a continued
threat for damaging wind gusts as the cluster of storms to our
northwest moves into the area. The tornado potential also remains
in place, given the strength of the low level jet and VWP
hodographs showing decent curvature in the lower levels.

The upper trough is expected to amplify a bit through the day and
begin to shift slowly to the east with time. Unfortunately, we will
remain on the east side of this trough for at least another day,
with forecast guidance consistent on continuing the train of
shortwaves rotating around the base of the trough. Even with
convection expected early this morning, we should have some clearing
during the late morning through early afternoon, allowing whatever
stable layer that develops to quickly erode. The low level jet is
expected to re-intensify this afternoon as a stronger shortwave
moves through the area and will combine with a fairly unstable
airmass to lend another round of severe thunderstorms. The best
timing for this is generally during the afternoon and early
evening, though we should start to see any activity waning after
sunset. Given the parameters, all modes of severe thunderstorms
are possible.

In addition to the severe threat, we'll continue to see a flash
flooding threat extending through at least today. Observed rainfall
totals over the last 7 days is well above normal for much of the
area, and our PW values of around 2 inches is approximately the 90th
percentile for this time of year. Combined with the strengthening
LLJ and the boundary over the area, we may see training cells and
very intense rainfall rates. It's really difficult to pinpoint
where exactly these may set up, and as we've seen the last couple
of days, CAMs just don't have a good handle on the mesoscale.

So to summarize for today, scattered severe thunderstorms are
possible this morning, mainly across the western half of the area.
Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected during the
afternoon through early evening hours. And, flash flooding will
become a concern later today, especially over areas that see
training storms. Not to mention, our rip current risk remains high
for today.

Unfortunately, the threat for severe thunderstorms won't end there.
The upper closed low will begin to drift southward and into Alabama
during the day Tuesday. Forecast models differ on just how far south
this low will move, which will determine which, if any, areas will
see a break in severe storms. As of now, there's decent enough
agreement for at least the northern half of the area to be on the
more stable side of the system, though for the southern half, the
environment will be supportive once again for isolated to
scattered severe thunderstorms. The threat appears to be lesser
than we've seen the last few days, but it is still something to
monitor and remain aware.

Temperatures through the period will largely depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. Given the trends over the past couple of days,
and some slight height falls, expect temperatures to be similar,
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 70s. /73

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

A closed upper low will remain over Alabama, with its associated
surface low generally over the Florida Panhandle. This will help
bring an end to the endless waves of strong to severe thunderstorms
that the area has seen the last few days. However, given the forcing
associated with the upper low, rainfall chances will increase
through the day on Wednesday and then continue through the overnight
hours. The atmosphere will remain favorable for very heavy rainfall,
and and we see any training cells, flash flooding will once again be
a concern on Wednesday. /73

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

The aforementioned upper low will begin to move to the north on
Thursday and may begin to take a more western turn. Guidance is not
in the best agreement on exactly where this low will move, so the
long term period is a bit uncertain. Regardless, expect continued
rain chances through the weekend, with the best chances during
the day due to diurnally driven convection. Temperatures through
the period will be near climatological norms, with highs in the
upper 80s and lows in the lower 70s. /73

MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

A light to occasionally moderate west to southwest
flow is expected to persist into the middle of next week, and
cautionary headlines may be required at times. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms that develop over the marine
area will be capable of producing strong winds, hail, torrential
downpours, and waterspouts today. /73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  91  70  88  69  88  71  89 /  30  50  50  80  50  80  60  80
Pensacola   73  88  73  85  72  86  74  85 /  50  40  70  90  70  90  70  90
Destin      75  89  76  86  75  83  75  83 /  70  40  70  90  80  90  70  80
Evergreen   68  91  68  85  68  86  68  87 /  30  30  50  80  50  80  60  80
Waynesboro  68  91  68  87  67  87  68  89 /  10  30  30  70  30  60  40  60
Camden      66  88  66  83  66  84  67  86 /  10  30  40  80  40  70  50  60
Crestview   68  91  69  87  68  87  70  87 /  50  40  60  90  60  90  60  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ056-059-060-
     261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1103 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 W Highland Home       31.94N 86.39W
06/19/2023                   Crenshaw           AL   Public

            Tree fallen on home.

0500 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Highland Home       31.94N 86.32W
06/19/2023                   Crenshaw           AL   Public

            Tree fallen on home.

0504 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Petrey            31.83N 86.21W
06/19/2023                   Crenshaw           AL   Public

            Reports of numerous trees down.

0507 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Luverne                 31.72N 86.26W
06/19/2023                   Crenshaw           AL   Public

            Numerous trees downed in Luverne AL.

0507 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSE Patsburg          31.77N 86.22W
06/19/2023                   Crenshaw           AL   Public

            Structural damage to home from fallen tree.

0515 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Brantley                31.58N 86.25W
06/19/2023                   Crenshaw           AL   Public

            Trees down in Brantley AL.

0445 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Wald               31.75N 86.65W
06/19/2023                   Butler             AL   CO-OP Observer

            Trees down along US Highway 31 between Greenville and Chapman.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1113 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 SE Greenville         31.77N 86.54W
06/19/2023                   Butler             AL   Public

            Report of structural damage to house from
            fallen tree.

&&

10

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1129 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     Waterspout       7 SE Seminole           30.39N 86.33W
06/19/2023                   GMZ636             FL   Public

            Video of a waterspout moving onshore the
            Miramar Beach area from social media.

&&

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1133 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

FLZ205-206-191700-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
1133 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Okaloosa County through NOON CDT...

At 1133 AM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 5 miles northeast of Niceville, moving east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Niceville and Valparaiso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3047 8644 3050 8645 3050 8642 3051 8642
      3052 8650 3048 8648 3048 8651 3066 8651
      3067 8639 3047 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 271DEG 29KT 3057 8643

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Purdy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1157 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

ALZ264-266-191745-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-
1157 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Baldwin
County through 1245 PM CDT...

At 1157 AM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 3 miles west of
Daphne to 5 miles south of Point Clear to 13 miles southeast of
Orange Beach. Movement was east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Daphne, Fairhope, Gulf Shores, Foley, Orange Beach, Robertsdale,
Point Clear, Loxley, Magnolia Springs, Bon Secour, Summerdale and
Silverhill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3025 8771 3025 8770 3028 8776 3030 8773
      3036 8783 3041 8782 3038 8784 3041 8791
      3048 8794 3055 8790 3067 8792 3070 8775
      3036 8763 3034 8759 3030 8761 3030 8753
      3029 8755 3028 8755 3024 8771
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 277DEG 8KT 3060 8797 3040 8790 3012 8744

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Purdy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

ALZ263-265-191815-
Mobile Coastal AL-Mobile Central AL-
1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Mobile
County through 115 PM CDT...

At 1218 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles east of Big
Point to 6 miles east of Theodore. Movement was east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tillmans Corner, Theodore, Grand Bay, Bayou La Batre, Coden, I10 And
I65 and Alabama Port.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3040 8834 3040 8840 3064 8841 3066 8805
      3064 8806 3061 8805 3058 8807 3057 8809
      3054 8808 3051 8810 3047 8810 3044 8811
      3040 8810 3036 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 1718Z 270DEG 10KT 3056 8840 3051 8807

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Purdy