Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1157 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

VFR conditions this evening with additional showers and
thunderstorms possible later tonight into Monday
morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Brief reductions in
ceilings and visbys can be expected in and around showers and
thunderstorms. /13

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

The overall timing of severe weather remains difficult, but the most
likely setup would be the redevelopment of scattered to numerous
storms across the interior portions of southeast Mississippi and
southwest Alabama this evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is being
considered for parts of the this area for this evening. This
convection would than progress to the south-southeast across the
entire forecast area after midnight into early Monday morning before
moving off the coast. There looks to be a short-lived reprieve in
the action Monday morning, but surface heating will again result in
scattered to numerous storms, especially in the afternoon along and
southeast of I-65. The atmosphere will remain quite unstable
overnight with MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/KG. By late Monday
morning and into this afternoon hours, MLCAPE values could be as
high as 3000-4000 J/KG due to surface heating. 0-6 km bulk shear
values remain steady in the 30-45 kt range. Needless to say, the
environment will remain favorable for organized severe weather with
clusters of severe storms/supercells and potentially bowing segments
sweeping over our CWA later tonight, with redevelopment late Monday
morning. A Slight (2 of 5) risk has been outlined over much of our
area for Monday. Torrential downpours will also be likely with
storms overnight and Monday afternoon, with rainfall amounts between
2-4" and locally higher possibly falling in a short period of time.
The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight, and we will
need to look at potentially extending our Flash Flood Watch through
Monday.

Hot and humid conditions will prevail outside of storm development
on Monday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints well
in the 70s will result in maximum heat indices between 100-105 over
southern portions of our area, perhaps locally as high as 105-108 in
closer to the coast and parts of southeast MS and far southwest AL.
A HIGH risk of rip currents will remain in effect along local
beaches today and probably for the next several days. /22

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

A closed upper low that has organized over Kentucky moves south
to over the Southeast through the Short Term. An associated
surface low moves south with the upper low, becoming centered over
the Florida Panhandle by Wednesday. A band of stronger
northwesterly upper level flow that has stretching across the
forecast area shifts west of the forecast area as the upper low
pushes against a semi-stationary upper high situated over Texas,
directing the stream of shortwave energy that has/is moving across
the forecast area more west of the forecast area. A surface
boundary stretching southeast across the forecast area moves to
our south of the coast a bit with a temporary band of drier air
moving south over the forecast area to the coast Tuesday. This
drops in moisture levels, into the 1.2"-1.5" range. This drop is
temporary, though, rising back into the 1.7"-1.9" or higher by
Wednesday as the upper low moves over the Southeast. Rain chances
see a downward trend Monday night through Tuesday, along with a
southward shift, but rise back to categorical by Wednesday. Higher
PoPS shifts to areas along and southeast of I-65, with better
upper support closer to the center of the upper low.

Strong to severe storms remain possible through the Short Term,
though the area shifts to areas well south of Highway 84, or further
south, with best instability being along and south of our coastal
counties. SBCapes along and south of the boundary rise into the 3500-
4500J/kg range along and south of the, roughly well south of Highway
84 Tuesday and over and south of our coastal counties Wednesday. The
higher wind shear shifts west of the forecast area with the stronger
upper level flow. Guidance is advertising Bulk Shear values in the
30-40kt range Tuesday and Wednesday. Mid level lapse rates fall
below 7.0C/km , reducing the chance of large hail. Water issues
remain a strong possiblity through the Short Term, with westerly
flow along the surface boundary.

Low temperatures see a downward trend as the stalled surface
boundary shifts south. Low temperatures in the around 70 to mid 70s
range Monday night drop into the upper 60s to around 70 range
Wednesday night. High temperatures also see a downward trend, from
the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday to low 80s northeast of a
Waynesboro to Opp line, to upper 80s over our southern-most
counties Wednesday.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Guidance is advertising the upper low meandering a bit west over
the Southeast before heading north, leaving an upper level trough
stretching south along the Mississippi River. Better rain chances
remain on the eastern half of the upper trough, with the actual
placement over the forecast area indeterminate at this time.
Temperatures see a slow rise, back to near seasonal norms by the
end of the forecast as the upper trough weakens.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are now being
included in the Coastal Waters Forecast for Mobile Bay, the
Mississippi Sound, and Gulf Waters. A light to occasionally moderate
west to southwest flow is expected to persist into the middle of
next week, and additional cautionary headlines may be required at
times. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that develop
over the marine area will be capable of producing strong winds,
hail, torrential downpours, and waterspouts through the first half
of the week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  91  72  90  71  87  70  87 /  40  80  40  70  60  80  60  70
Pensacola   77  89  74  89  73  86  73  86 /  50  80  60  70  70  90  70  80
Destin      78  88  77  89  75  85  74  86 /  50  70  70  70  80  90  80  80
Evergreen   73  89  69  91  69  84  68  84 /  60  80  40  60  60  80  60  80
Waynesboro  71  90  69  91  69  85  68  86 /  60  60  30  50  30  60  30  70
Camden      70  87  68  89  67  81  67  83 /  60  70  30  50  40  70  50  80
Crestview   73  90  70  92  69  86  68  87 /  50  80  60  70  60  90  70  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Monday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Monday for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Monday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1020 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Nymph                   31.34N 86.94W
06/18/2023                   Conecuh            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down.

&&

JLH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1022 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Lenox                   31.34N 87.19W
06/18/2023                   Conecuh            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down.

&&

JLH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1024 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Burnt Corn              31.55N 87.17W
06/18/2023                   Monroe             AL   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down and a car damaged by a fallen
            tree.

&&

JLH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1025 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Evergreen               31.43N 86.96W
06/18/2023                   Conecuh            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down on a house with damage.

&&

JLH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1031 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE Repton            31.40N 87.21W
06/18/2023                   Conecuh            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Trees and power lines down along Ryals road.

&&

JLH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1037 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     Flash Flood      1 WNW Lenox             31.34N 87.20W
06/18/2023                   Conecuh            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Severe road wash out at culvert along Tom
            Nall road (dirt road).

&&

JLH