Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
316 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

The cold front continues to slowly drift through the CWA, firing
a couple lines of thunderstorms along the I20 corridor and
Northward. CAPE values >3000 J/Kg and DCAPEs >1100 have lead to a
few svr warnings already. That said, given the even juicier
environment (CAPE values ~5000 and DCAPE ~1500) across central GA,
greater thunderstorm coverage may also accompany a greater
damaging wind threat. Other hazards this afternoon will include
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

This evening and tonight, the front begins to stall across the
Southeastern CWA. PoPs will continue overnight along the boundary,
however drier and cooler conditions to the north will prevail
(yeah!). Lows tonight for much of North and parts of Central GA will
finally see those 60s we all have dreamed of. That said, PoPs may
surge slightly across the Southeast CWA tomorrow afternoon with the
seabreeze and diurnal heating. Overall though the rest of the area
should be cooler and dry.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

The long term continues to look fairly quiet with a couple of
cooler and pleasant days for the late week period followed by
rapidly warming conditions as the upper ridge builds. Previous
discussion follows for more detail...

RW

Previous LONG TERM...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

An amplified upper level pattern will be in place as the extended
period begins, with a persistent ridge over the western CONUS and
a longwave trough digging southward across the eastern CONUS. At
the surface, the frontal boundary from the short term period is
expected to be stalled from far southwest Georgia to east central
Georgia. A drier airmass will be in place in the areas behind the
front, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s in north Georgia and
mid to upper 60s in central Georgia. Precipitable water values are
also anticipated to be below 1" behind the front as the period
begins on Wednesday night. After a cool start to the morning,
temperatures on Thursday will run near daily averages, with highs
in the upper 80s and low 90s. Not only will the limited low-level
moisture make it feel refreshing outside compared to the earlier
parts of the week, it will also inhibit instability, limiting the
chances for diurnally driven convection. In fact, precipitation
chances will be mainly confined to along and south of the frontal
boundary. At this time, slight chance to low-end chance PoPs are
confined to east-central Georgia on Thursday. However, some
uncertainty remains as to exactly where the front will stall -- if
it becomes stationary further north than currently anticipated,
warmer temperatures and higher humidity, and thus greater
thunderstorm chances, will also be expected further to the north.

On Friday, the trough over the eastern CONUS will begin to lift away
as the aforementioned ridge begins to build into the Southern Plains
from the west. Temperatures will undergo a gradual warming trend
through the end of the week, with highs rising into the low to mid
90s on Friday. The position of the ridge will does not appear
favorable for a return to the northwesterly upper level flow regime
and subsequent MCS development. Meanwhile, the development of a more
typical summertime Bermuda ridge is anticipated over the western
Atlantic on Friday into the weekend. This setup will favor hot and
humid conditions, with temperatures reaching into the mid 90s and
dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, through the
weekend. It appears that thunderstorms that develop this weekend
will be of the diurnally-driven pulse convection nature, with the
best coverage likely in central Georgia where instability will be
greatest.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

VFR areawide with TEMPOs moved up to account for earlier than
expected convection across North GA (18Z-22Z). Further amend might
be needed with rear development. Winds may become gusty,
particularly around thunderstorms. W-WSW winds will continue to turn
to NW through the afternoon hours behind front. VSBYs at MCN may
drop tonight as front stalls to the SE.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence rear PoPs and motion of cold front. High
confidence all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  86  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         65  85  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     57  80  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    61  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        70  89  68  92 /  30   0  10  10
Gainesville     63  84  65  86 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           70  89  69  91 /  60  10  20  10
Rome            63  85  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  63  85  63  88 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         73  88  73  91 /  60  50  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ038-039-049>051-
058>062-069>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...SM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1148 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1148 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Heat Advisory is in effect from 10 AM until 8 PM EDT for
portions of central and east Georgia. Heat index values of up to
106 degrees are expected. Appropriate precautions should be taken
to avoid heat related illnesses, including but not limited to
drinking plenty of fluids, using air-conditioning when possible,
staying out of the sun, and checking up on relatives and
neighbors.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
tonight as a cold front advances through north and central
Georgia. A few storms associated with this system may become
strong, capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible primarily in
central Georgia each afternoon and evening from Wednesday through
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
354 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Grantville              33.23N 84.83W
08/15/2023                   Coweta             GA   Dept of Highways

            A tree was downed on GA-14 at Lone Oak Rd.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
359 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

GAZ066>069-078-079-152030-
Harris GA-Upson GA-Troup GA-Meriwether GA-Talbot GA-Pike GA-
359 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Meriwether,
southwestern Pike, northern Upson, southeastern Troup, northwestern
Talbot and northeastern Harris Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 359 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Stovall, or 10 miles
southwest of Greenville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Thomaston, Greenville, Manchester, Pine Mountain, Woodbury, Warm
Springs, Woodland, Molena, Sunset Village, The Rock, Pine
Mountain-Callaway Gardens, Lincoln Park, Shiloh, F.d. Roosevelt State
Park, Atwater, Flint Hill, Odessadale, Sprewell Bluff State Park,
Stovall, and Sunnyside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3303 8494 3306 8448 3295 8419 3277 8452
      3285 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 270DEG 21KT 3295 8486

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
404 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Luthersville        33.21N 84.73W
08/15/2023                   Meriwether         GA   911 Call Center

            Tree on roadway at intersection of Meadows
            Boone Road an Luthersville Road.

&&

KAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
407 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

GAZ078-089-152030-
Harris GA-Muscogee GA-
407 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Muscogee
and Harris Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 406 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Bartletts Ferry Dam, or
8 miles north of Smiths, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Waverly Hall, Goat Rock Lake, Ellerslie, Midland, Mountain
Hill, Cataula, Fortson, Pine Mountain Valley, Mulberry Grove, and
Lake Harding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3272 8512 3283 8474 3258 8469 3255 8504
      3256 8504 3259 8508 3262 8509 3263 8508
      3264 8510 3264 8511 3266 8509 3269 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 262DEG 24KT 3266 8506

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
417 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

GAZ059>061-071>073-082-152100-
Putnam GA-Hancock GA-Monroe GA-Baldwin GA-Bibb GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
417 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Baldwin,
northwestern Bibb, southern Putnam, west central Hancock,
southeastern Monroe, Jones and southeastern Jasper Counties through
500 PM EDT...

At 417 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Adgateville to near Yatesville, and moving east
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Milledgeville, Eatonton, Forsyth, Gray, Meriwether, Lake
Tobesofkee, Bradley, Wayside, Resseaus Crossroads, Round Oak,
Russellville, Plant Harlee Branch, Arkwright, Juliette, Ethridge,
Bolingbroke, Dames Ferry, Brent, and Clinton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3327 8305 3282 8382 3292 8411 3293 8409
      3293 8406 3295 8405 3295 8404 3297 8404
      3331 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 281DEG 25KT 3325 8361 3296 8417

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH