Severe Thunderstorm Warning 512, NWS Atlanta, GA

681 
WWUS52 KFFC 150339
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1139 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

GAC083-295-150349-
/O.EXP.KFFC.SV.W.0512.000000T0000Z-230815T0345Z/
Walker GA-Dade GA-
1139 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALKER AND
SOUTHWESTERN DADE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for
northwestern Georgia.

LAT...LON 3482 8538 3459 8547 3459 8553 3483 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 297DEG 20KT 3464 8546 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
934 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This evening's biggest update is the threat for severe weather
across far north Georgia this evening. At the time of writing, a
wave of scattered storms ahead of a cold front stretching from NE TN
to NW AL will push eastward over the next several hours. While the
best upper level support will be further to the north, far north
Georgia has not been worked over yet by storms earlier today. Plenty
of instability remains in place across the northern tier of counties
(1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) in addition to abundant low level moisture
(dewpoint fields in the mid 70s in the lowest elevations), DCAPE
ranging from 1000-1400 J/kg, and effective bulk shear from 25-35KT.
While far NW GA appears to be most favorable for strong to severe
storms that could produce damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph,
there is enough confidence to include the entirety of our northern
row of counties in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 3AM local time
in the event the severe threat progress further east. We will be
closely monitoring the evolution of the storms in the event that
additional counties need to be added to the watch. PWATs ranging
from 1.5-2.0" will warrant the need to monitor localized heavy
rainfall for flash flooding concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

The hottest day in this ongoing series of hot days is upon us
today. As of 2 PM, heat index values have already soared to
105-110 for most of the area with a few spots in the 110-115
range, easily verifying the Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat
Warning that are in effect through this evening. Convection has so
far been less widespread as compared to recent days, and in
general this trend is expected to persist, though isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will still occur. A couple of strong to
severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts will remain
possible with the hot, humid conditions producing analyzed SBCAPE
of 4000-5000 J/kg across the area.

Relief from the heat is finally on the horizon, beginning as early
as tomorrow for some. A cold front presently extending to our
northwest across the Mid-Mississippi Valley will continue its push
southeastward as a trough swings through the Great Lakes region. The
front will make progress into northwest Georgia Tuesday morning and
continue southeastward through the day. The extreme heat will
therefore be over for the northwestern third or so of the area by
tomorrow as cooler, drier air arrives behind the front. However,
areas farther southeast will continue to roast ahead of the front.
An additional Heat Advisory has been issued for Tuesday for Middle
Georgia and portions of east central Georgia, where highs will still
soar well into the mid-to-upper 90s in the presence of continued mid
to upper 70s dewpoints. At this point, the decision was made to
forego an Excessive Heat Warning in Middle Georgia as convection is
expected to fire during the afternoon ahead of the front in these
areas, narrowing the window for 110+ heat index readings to only a
couple of hours. With that said, portions of the Advisory could
still be upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning by tomorrow if
confidence increases on the potential for several hours of extreme
heat index values.

Aside from the heat, scattered thunderstorms will increase ahead of
the front by afternoon as diurnal instability increases, mainly for
areas south of the I-85 corridor. Given the addition of frontal
forcing in the presence of the moist and strongly unstable airmass,
some storms could reach severe limits with the primary risk again
being strong to damaging downburst winds. For this reason, SPC does
include these areas in a Marginal Risk for the Day 2 outlook.

The front will then clear southeast by Tuesday night, with much more
pleasant conditions by Wednesday morning as lows dip into the low to
mid 60s across north Georgia and even some 50s in the mountains.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

 - Seasonal temperatures, lower humidity and generally dry weather
are forecast Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Warm and humid weather returns over the weekend with a Moderate
Risk (Level 2 of 3) for excessive heat in Central Georgia Saturday
through Monday.

Wednesday & Thursday:

Tuesday's cold front should stall out over southern Georgia during
this period. The airmass that filters in behind the front will bring
lower humidity and more seasonable temperatures (highs in the 85 to
93 degree range) to northern and central Georgia on Wednesday and
Thursday. Guidance from the GEFS and EPS suggests PWAT values below
and inch on Wednesday, with values only recovering to around an inch
on Thursday. Couple this with surface dewpoints in the 60s (per NBM
guidance) and it should feel refreshing outside compared to the
current conditions. The lack of moisture should also help minimize
instability and help remove diurnally driven thunderstorms chances
from most of the region.

One uncertainty we will need to monitor going forward will be the
southward progression of the front. If the front stalls out further
north than anticipated, then the door could be open for warmer
temperatures, higher humidity and isolated thunderstorms in the
counties south and east of Macon. To account for this potential we
have left lower end thunderstorms chances (15-35%) in the forecast
for these counties on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

Friday into Early Next Week:

The odds favor a return to hot and humid conditions over the weekend
and early next week. Guidance from both the GEFS and EPS are
progging a simultaneous northeastward drift and strengthening of the
upper level ridge currently over Texas and Louisiana. The means of
both ensembles have a 597 dm high centered over Illinois, with
ridging dominating over the eastern two thirds of the CONUS by next
Monday. This suggests above average temperatures in Georgia and this
is reflected in the CPC's 6 to 10 and 7 to 14 Day Temperature
Outlooks. It is also worth noting that the CPC has a Moderate Risk
(Level 2 of 3) of excessive heat in central Georgia from Saturday
through Monday.

Thunderstorm chances may return during this period as well,
especially over central Georgia. The overall positioning of the
ridge doesn't appear favorable for northwesterly flow aloft and
subsequent MCS development at this time. Thus any storms would most
likely take the form of diurnally driven popcorn convection.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

VFR conditions throughout the TAF cycle with SCT MVFR cigs
tomorrow morning at metro terminals. Frontal passage with
SHRA/TSRA will move through TAF sites at northern terminals in
the early afternoon and move southward through MCN and CSG after
18Z. SW winds will become NW behind the front at 5 to 10 KT. Winds
may be gusty and VRB in SHRA/TSRA.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence in SHRA/TSRA timing. High confidence on
remaining elements.

KAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  91  67  87 /   0  40  10   0
Atlanta         75  91  66  88 /  10  50  10   0
Blairsville     68  81  57  81 /  40  50   0   0
Cartersville    72  88  62  85 /  10  30   0   0
Columbus        77  96  71  90 /  20  60  30  10
Gainesville     75  88  65  86 /  10  40   0   0
Macon           76  96  71  88 /  10  60  60  10
Rome            73  88  63  85 /  20  30   0   0
Peachtree City  74  91  65  88 /  10  40  10   0
Vidalia         77  96  73  89 /  10  60  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ038-039-
049>051-058>062-069>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...KAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
242 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

GAZ027-030>034-036-037-041>048-052>057-066>068-151845-
Carroll-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-DeKalb-Douglas-Fayette-
Gwinnett-Haralson-Heard-Henry-Madison-Meriwether-Newton-
North Fulton-Oconee-Paulding-Pike-Polk-Rockdale-South Fulton-
Spalding-Troup-Walton-
242 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Georgia...northeast Georgia...northwest Georgia AND west central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

An Excessive Heat Warning remains in place through 8 PM today.
Heat index values of 110 degrees or more are expected.
Appropriate precautions should be taken to avoid heat related
illnesses. Including but not limited to drinking plenty of
fluids, using air-conditioning when possible, staying out of the
sun, and checking up on relatives and neighbors. If possible
reschedule strenuous outdoor activities to the early morning or
late evening hours.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the the region through
and midnight. The storms may produce gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Isolated thunderstorms will affect the region Tuesday afternoon
and evening. The storms may produce gusty winds, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

GAZ001>005-011-012-019>025-035-151845-
Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Catoosa-Chattooga-Cherokee-Dade-Floyd-Forsyth-
Gordon-Hall-Jackson-Murray-Walker-Whitfield-
242 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Georgia...northeast Georgia AND northwest Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Heat Advisory remains in place through 8 PM today. Heat index
values of 105 to 109 degrees are expected. Appropriate
precautions should be taken to avoid heat related illnesses.
Including but not limited to drinking plenty of fluids, using air-
conditioning when possible, staying out of the sun, and checking
up on relatives and neighbors. Consider rescheduling strenuous
outdoor activities to the early morning or late evening hours.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the the region today and
tonight. An isolated severe storm with damaging winds is possible.
The storms may also produce frequent lightning and locally heavy
rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the region through
3 PM Tuesday. Any thunderstorms may produce gusty winds, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

GAZ006>009-013>016-151845-
Dawson-Fannin-Gilmer-Lumpkin-Pickens-Towns-Union-White-
242 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Georgia AND northeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the the region today and
tonight. Isolated severe storms with damaging winds are possible.
The storms may also produce frequent lightning and locally heavy
rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the region through
2 PM Tuesday. Any thunderstorms may produce gusty winds, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

Isolated thunderstorms may occur next weekend or early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

GAZ038-039-049>051-058>062-069>076-078>086-089>098-102>113-151845-
Baldwin-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Chattahoochee-Crawford-Crisp-Dodge-
Dooly-Emanuel-Glascock-Greene-Hancock-Harris-Houston-Jasper-
Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Macon-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Morgan-Muscogee-Oglethorpe-Peach-Pulaski-Putnam-Schley-
Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-Treutlen-
Twiggs-Upson-Warren-Washington-Webster-Wheeler-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
242 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Georgia...east central Georgia...north central Georgia...northeast
Georgia...southeast Georgia AND west central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

An Excessive Heat Warning remains in place through 8 PM today.
Heat index values of 110 degrees or more are expected.
Appropriate precautions should be taken to avoid heat related
illnesses. Including but not limited to drinking plenty of
fluids, using air-conditioning when possible, staying out of the
sun, and checking up on relatives and neighbors. If possible
reschedule strenuous outdoor activities to the early morning or
late evening hours.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the the region between 2
PM and midnight. The storms may produce gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

A Heat Advisory will be in place from 10 AM to 8 PM on Tuesday.
Expect heat index values up to 109 degrees. Take extra
precautions and drink plenty of fluids if you plan to spend time
outside.

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the region Tuesday afternoon
and evening. A couple of storms may be severe with damaging winds
being the primary hazard. Frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall may also occur.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon and evening between Wednesday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
627 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

GAZ059-060-142300-
Putnam GA-Jasper GA-
627 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Putnam
and central Jasper Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 627 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Monticello, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Monticello, Shady Dale, Calvin, Hillsboro, McElheneys Crossroads,
Adgateville, and Willard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3329 8343 3315 8369 3315 8373 3335 8382
      3344 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 317DEG 8KT 3331 8363

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
642 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

GAZ052>054-066-067-078-142315-
Harris GA-Fayette GA-Coweta GA-Troup GA-Heard GA-Meriwether GA-
642 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central Fayette,
northwestern Meriwether, eastern Heard, Troup, Coweta and
northwestern Harris Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 642 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Arnco-Sargent to Lakeview, and moving southeast
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Newnan, LaGrange, Fayetteville, Franklin, Peachtree City, Tyrone,
West Point, Senoia, Hogansville, Grantville, Luthersville, Moreland,
Sharpsburg, Turin, Lone Oak, East Newnan, Corinth, Mountville,
Cannonville, and Louise.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3345 8496 3344 8494 3345 8492 3344 8447
      3264 8510 3264 8511 3266 8509 3269 8512
      3271 8512 3274 8511 3276 8514 3278 8512
      3281 8517 3285 8515 3286 8519 3313 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 304DEG 20KT 3338 8484 3293 8519

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
646 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

GAZ093-095-105-142315-
Macon GA-Dooly GA-Houston GA-
646 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Macon,
northwestern Dooly and southwestern Houston Counties through 715 PM
EDT...

At 646 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Dooling, or 7 miles
east of Oglethorpe, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Oglethorpe, Montezuma, Byromville, Dooling, and Flint River Wma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3233 8407 3240 8392 3228 8374 3213 8401
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 330DEG 7KT 3228 8394

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
659 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

GAZ059-060-072-142330-
Putnam GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
659 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Putnam,
north central Jones and southeastern Jasper Counties through 730 PM
EDT...

At 659 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Monticello, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Eatonton, Monticello, Shady Dale, Central Georgia Experiment Stn,
Hillsboro, Round Oak, Stanfordville, Warfield, Adgateville, and
Willard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3332 8372 3344 8356 3329 8329 3308 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 323DEG 7KT 3328 8360

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
735 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

GAZ059-060-072-073-150000-
Putnam GA-Baldwin GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
735 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Baldwin, southwestern Putnam, northeastern Jones and southeastern
Jasper Counties through 800 PM EDT...

At 734 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Resseaus Crossroads, or
9 miles southwest of Eatonton, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Ethridge, Resseaus Crossroads, Plant Harlee Branch, Stanfordville,
Blountsville, and Willard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 8326 3320 8327 3319 8327 3304 8348
      3323 8358 3332 8350 3325 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 297DEG 15KT 3320 8347

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1045 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

GAZ001-150315-
Dade GA-
1045 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Dade County through
1115 PM EDT...

At 1044 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Ider, or 13 miles
southwest of Trenton, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Trenton, Stephensville, Rising Fawn, Cloudland Canyon State Park, and
New England.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for
northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3492 8540 3487 8544 3483 8545 3476 8545
      3475 8546 3473 8546 3470 8549 3468 8549
      3465 8551 3463 8553 3493 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 283DEG 32KT 3475 8569

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH