Severe Thunderstorm Warning 527, NWS Atlanta, GA

054 
WWUS52 KFFC 152138
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
538 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

GAC169-152148-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0527.000000T0000Z-230815T2145Z/
Jones GA-
538 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL JONES COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3272 8377 3280 8379 3287 8356 3284 8352
      3286 8348 3274 8343 3271 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 257DEG 11KT 3283 8355 

$$

GAC021-289-152145-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0527.000000T0000Z-230815T2145Z/
Bibb GA-Twiggs GA-
538 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL BIBB AND NORTHWESTERN TWIGGS COUNTIES...

At 538 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Franklinton, or
near Macon, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Cross Keys, Dry Branch, Skipperton, Rutland, Franklinton, and
Fitzpatrick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3272 8377 3280 8379 3287 8356 3284 8352
      3286 8348 3274 8343 3271 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 257DEG 11KT 3283 8355 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
316 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

The cold front continues to slowly drift through the CWA, firing
a couple lines of thunderstorms along the I20 corridor and
Northward. CAPE values >3000 J/Kg and DCAPEs >1100 have lead to a
few svr warnings already. That said, given the even juicier
environment (CAPE values ~5000 and DCAPE ~1500) across central GA,
greater thunderstorm coverage may also accompany a greater
damaging wind threat. Other hazards this afternoon will include
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

This evening and tonight, the front begins to stall across the
Southeastern CWA. PoPs will continue overnight along the boundary,
however drier and cooler conditions to the north will prevail
(yeah!). Lows tonight for much of North and parts of Central GA will
finally see those 60s we all have dreamed of. That said, PoPs may
surge slightly across the Southeast CWA tomorrow afternoon with the
seabreeze and diurnal heating. Overall though the rest of the area
should be cooler and dry.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

The long term continues to look fairly quiet with a couple of
cooler and pleasant days for the late week period followed by
rapidly warming conditions as the upper ridge builds. Previous
discussion follows for more detail...

RW

Previous LONG TERM...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

An amplified upper level pattern will be in place as the extended
period begins, with a persistent ridge over the western CONUS and
a longwave trough digging southward across the eastern CONUS. At
the surface, the frontal boundary from the short term period is
expected to be stalled from far southwest Georgia to east central
Georgia. A drier airmass will be in place in the areas behind the
front, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s in north Georgia and
mid to upper 60s in central Georgia. Precipitable water values are
also anticipated to be below 1" behind the front as the period
begins on Wednesday night. After a cool start to the morning,
temperatures on Thursday will run near daily averages, with highs
in the upper 80s and low 90s. Not only will the limited low-level
moisture make it feel refreshing outside compared to the earlier
parts of the week, it will also inhibit instability, limiting the
chances for diurnally driven convection. In fact, precipitation
chances will be mainly confined to along and south of the frontal
boundary. At this time, slight chance to low-end chance PoPs are
confined to east-central Georgia on Thursday. However, some
uncertainty remains as to exactly where the front will stall -- if
it becomes stationary further north than currently anticipated,
warmer temperatures and higher humidity, and thus greater
thunderstorm chances, will also be expected further to the north.

On Friday, the trough over the eastern CONUS will begin to lift away
as the aforementioned ridge begins to build into the Southern Plains
from the west. Temperatures will undergo a gradual warming trend
through the end of the week, with highs rising into the low to mid
90s on Friday. The position of the ridge will does not appear
favorable for a return to the northwesterly upper level flow regime
and subsequent MCS development. Meanwhile, the development of a more
typical summertime Bermuda ridge is anticipated over the western
Atlantic on Friday into the weekend. This setup will favor hot and
humid conditions, with temperatures reaching into the mid 90s and
dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, through the
weekend. It appears that thunderstorms that develop this weekend
will be of the diurnally-driven pulse convection nature, with the
best coverage likely in central Georgia where instability will be
greatest.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

VFR areawide with TEMPOs moved up to account for earlier than
expected convection across North GA (18Z-22Z). Further amend might
be needed with rear development. Winds may become gusty,
particularly around thunderstorms. W-WSW winds will continue to turn
to NW through the afternoon hours behind front. VSBYs at MCN may
drop tonight as front stalls to the SE.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence rear PoPs and motion of cold front. High
confidence all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  86  65  88 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         65  85  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     57  80  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    61  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        70  89  68  92 /  30   0  10  10
Gainesville     63  84  65  86 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           70  89  69  91 /  60  10  20  10
Rome            63  85  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  63  85  63  88 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         73  88  73  91 /  60  50  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ038-039-049>051-
058>062-069>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...SM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1148 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1148 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Heat Advisory is in effect from 10 AM until 8 PM EDT for
portions of central and east Georgia. Heat index values of up to
106 degrees are expected. Appropriate precautions should be taken
to avoid heat related illnesses, including but not limited to
drinking plenty of fluids, using air-conditioning when possible,
staying out of the sun, and checking up on relatives and
neighbors.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
tonight as a cold front advances through north and central
Georgia. A few storms associated with this system may become
strong, capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible primarily in
central Georgia each afternoon and evening from Wednesday through
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
446 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Hail             1 NNW Phoenix           33.43N 83.28W
08/15/2023  E1.75 inch       Putnam             GA   Public

            Golf ball sized hail reported near the
            intersection of Harmony Ln and Harmony Rd.

&&

KAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
448 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     Hail             1 NNW Phoenix           33.43N 83.28W
08/15/2023  E1.75 inch       Putnam             GA   Public

            Corrects previous hail report from 1 NNW
            Phoenix. Golf ball sized hail reported near
            the intersection of Harmony Ln and Harmony
            Rd.

&&

KAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
450 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

GAZ060-061-072>075-081>084-152115-
Wilkinson GA-Washington GA-Putnam GA-Hancock GA-Baldwin GA-Bibb GA-
Glascock GA-Crawford GA-Jones GA-Twiggs GA-
450 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Baldwin, Wilkinson,
Bibb, northwestern Twiggs, southeastern Putnam, southern Hancock,
southwestern Glascock, northwestern Washington, northeastern Crawford
and eastern Jones Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 450 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Devereux to Postell, and moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Milledgeville, Sandersville, Gray, Irwinton, Gordon, Tennille,
Ivey, McIntyre, Toomsboro, Oconee, Payne, Deepstep, Edge Hill, Payne
City, Midway-Hardwick, Edgehill, Meriwether, Postell, and Downs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 8258 3316 8257 3312 8258 3312 8266
      3306 8261 3305 8262 3273 8304 3279 8395
      3284 8389 3328 8321 3320 8287 3319 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 273DEG 35KT 3319 8306 3291 8352

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
454 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     Hail             1 NNE Phoenix           33.44N 83.27W
08/15/2023  E1.75 inch       Putnam             GA   Public

            Golf ball hail reported at Hwy 44 and
            Thunder Rd.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
455 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

GAZ080-081-093-094-152130-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Taylor GA-Crawford GA-
455 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Macon,
Peach, southern Crawford and northeastern Taylor Counties through 530
PM EDT...

At 455 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Nakomis, or 7 miles
west of Fort Valley, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Perry, Fort Valley, Byron, Reynolds, Nakomis, Powerville, Lee Pope,
Horns, Miami Valley, and Potterville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3250 8414 3266 8414 3272 8380 3251 8376
      3251 8379 3250 8379 3249 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 267DEG 27KT 3259 8401

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
503 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Zebulon             33.13N 84.35W
08/15/2023                   Pike               GA   911 Call Center

            Tree down at intersection of Drew Allen Road
            and Williamson Zebulon Road.

&&

KAL