Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
345 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Large hail/damaging winds are main the main threats across
southern/central Minnesota into western Wisconsin. In additional a few
tornadoes are also possible in southern Minnesota into parts of
western Wisconsin.

- Cooler temperatures Friday through mid-next week with frost
potential Saturday and Sunday morning.

This evening and tonight... Severe thunderstorm and tornado watches
are out through this evening. The biggest risk will be along a warm
front moving across southern Minnesota where the tornado watch is in
effect. The forcing from this front as well as the low level shear
in this area will allow for surface based storms with rotation. This
could lead to some supercells with all threats possible. Farther
north including the Twin Cities and Eau Claire will be more of a
severe thunderstorm threat with more of a elevated hailer type of
storm favored. One of the biggest areas of uncertainty right now is
low level moisture as this will be needed to for true surface based
storms and low enough LCLs to make the environment favorable for
tornadoes. Based on what this environment was able to do earlier
today with large hail this threat will continue across the area this
evening. As we approach sunset the severe threat will fade as
instability falls. Unless a linear system can come together and
develop a cold pool that is. Then a wind threat will persist,
although this is most likely to occur in western Wisconsin than in
any part of Minnesota. Rain chances will continue into tonight, with
a chance for some lightning.

Friday through Thursday... Behind the cold front below normal
temperatures will persist into the weekend. We will also dry out as
the low behind this moves into the Great Lakes. As we move deeper
into the weekend there will be a system moving to our south that
could transport enough moisture Saturday night into Sunday morning
for some rain showers. Behind this rain chance high pressure moves
in for the rest of the weekend into early next week. By the middle
of next week another chance for precipitation arrives. With a wide
spread in the models both deterministic and ensembles confidence is
not yet high enough for details yet. With the high moving out we
will also see a return to normal temperatures next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Currently, most of the TSTMs are occurring south of KMKT-KMSP-KEAU,
with some isolated between KMKT-KMSP as of 1715z. Confidence remains
low on coverage of TSTM activity this afternoon. However, based on
trends and model guidance, the best area of TSTM will occur near
KMSP-KRNH-KEAU between 21-01z. But, the TSTM in southeast Mn may
affect KEAU before 21z. AMD will be likely due to uncertainties in
the forecast and coverage of TSTM. Otherwise, SHRA become more
apparent along and behind the main frontal passage this evening. MVFR
cigs may develop with the SHRA and cold frontal passage this evening.
LLWS is also possible due to the strong nature of the surface low and
wind shear above the surface.

KMSP...

Confidence is low enough to keep TSTM out of the 18z TAF. However,
best coverage if TSTM develops will occur between 21-01z. Otherwise,
SE winds will shift to the W/NW with the frontal passage this
evening. SHRA is possible overnight with only isolated TSTM at best.
Gusty W winds will develop Friday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. -SHRA. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Mon...Mainly VFR. Chc -SHRA late. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
413 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MNZ044-045-051>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093-
WIZ014>016-023>028-202115-
Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-
Ramsey-Washington-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Brown-
Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-
Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-
Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
413 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are occurring and expected to continue
this evening. Some of these storms will likely be severe with
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation is needed.

MNZ041>043-047>050-054>058-064-065-073-202115-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Benton-Lac Qui Parle-
Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Yellow Medicine-Renville-Redwood-
413 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...southwest Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms possible, but severe storms are not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed..

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