Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Twin Cities, MN

274 
WWUS53 KMPX 192240 RRA
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
540 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MNC147-161-192250-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-220519T2245Z/
Steele MN-Waseca MN-
540 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN STEELE AND
SOUTHEASTERN WASECA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4388 9361 4396 9367 4409 9340 4392 9327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 244DEG 39KT 4398 9345 

$$

Dye

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
345 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Large hail/damaging winds are main the main threats across
southern/central Minnesota into western Wisconsin. In additional a few
tornadoes are also possible in southern Minnesota into parts of
western Wisconsin.

- Cooler temperatures Friday through mid-next week with frost
potential Saturday and Sunday morning.

This evening and tonight... Severe thunderstorm and tornado watches
are out through this evening. The biggest risk will be along a warm
front moving across southern Minnesota where the tornado watch is in
effect. The forcing from this front as well as the low level shear
in this area will allow for surface based storms with rotation. This
could lead to some supercells with all threats possible. Farther
north including the Twin Cities and Eau Claire will be more of a
severe thunderstorm threat with more of a elevated hailer type of
storm favored. One of the biggest areas of uncertainty right now is
low level moisture as this will be needed to for true surface based
storms and low enough LCLs to make the environment favorable for
tornadoes. Based on what this environment was able to do earlier
today with large hail this threat will continue across the area this
evening. As we approach sunset the severe threat will fade as
instability falls. Unless a linear system can come together and
develop a cold pool that is. Then a wind threat will persist,
although this is most likely to occur in western Wisconsin than in
any part of Minnesota. Rain chances will continue into tonight, with
a chance for some lightning.

Friday through Thursday... Behind the cold front below normal
temperatures will persist into the weekend. We will also dry out as
the low behind this moves into the Great Lakes. As we move deeper
into the weekend there will be a system moving to our south that
could transport enough moisture Saturday night into Sunday morning
for some rain showers. Behind this rain chance high pressure moves
in for the rest of the weekend into early next week. By the middle
of next week another chance for precipitation arrives. With a wide
spread in the models both deterministic and ensembles confidence is
not yet high enough for details yet. With the high moving out we
will also see a return to normal temperatures next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Currently, most of the TSTMs are occurring south of KMKT-KMSP-KEAU,
with some isolated between KMKT-KMSP as of 1715z. Confidence remains
low on coverage of TSTM activity this afternoon. However, based on
trends and model guidance, the best area of TSTM will occur near
KMSP-KRNH-KEAU between 21-01z. But, the TSTM in southeast Mn may
affect KEAU before 21z. AMD will be likely due to uncertainties in
the forecast and coverage of TSTM. Otherwise, SHRA become more
apparent along and behind the main frontal passage this evening. MVFR
cigs may develop with the SHRA and cold frontal passage this evening.
LLWS is also possible due to the strong nature of the surface low and
wind shear above the surface.

KMSP...

Confidence is low enough to keep TSTM out of the 18z TAF. However,
best coverage if TSTM develops will occur between 21-01z. Otherwise,
SE winds will shift to the W/NW with the frontal passage this
evening. SHRA is possible overnight with only isolated TSTM at best.
Gusty W winds will develop Friday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. -SHRA. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Mon...Mainly VFR. Chc -SHRA late. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
413 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MNZ044-045-051>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093-
WIZ014>016-023>028-202115-
Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-
Ramsey-Washington-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Brown-
Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-
Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-
Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
413 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are occurring and expected to continue
this evening. Some of these storms will likely be severe with
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation is needed.

MNZ041>043-047>050-054>058-064-065-073-202115-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Benton-Lac Qui Parle-
Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Yellow Medicine-Renville-Redwood-
413 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...southwest Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms possible, but severe storms are not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed..

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
506 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             WOODBURY                44.92N 92.93W
05/19/2022  M1.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         MN   PUBLIC

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
509 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     TSTM WND GST     SPRING VALLEY           44.85N 92.24W
05/19/2022  M55 MPH          PIERCE             WI   MESONET

            CWOP.

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
515 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     HAIL             MENDOTA HEIGHTS         44.88N 93.14W
05/19/2022  M1.25 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   PUBLIC

&&

CEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
516 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

WIZ023-024-192245-
Pierce WI-St. Croix WI-
516 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Pierce
and south central St. Croix Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 516 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Prescott, or 7 miles southwest of River Falls, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  River Falls and Ellsworth around 525 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southeastern
Minnesota.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
east central Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4469 9270 4472 9274 4475 9281 4480 9276
      4492 9237 4488 9230 4468 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 248DEG 38KT 4476 9268

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ETA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
518 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             1 S ST. PAUL            44.94N 93.09W
05/19/2022  M1.75 INCH       RAMSEY             MN   PUBLIC

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
521 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     HAIL             1 NW BALDWIN            44.97N 92.38W
05/19/2022  M1.75 INCH       ST. CROIX          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CEO